The No. 12 Florida Gators (20-6) take on the Ole Miss Rebels (11-15) in Muncie, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -950. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Florida vs Ole Miss Prediction, Pick
My Pick: Florida -12.5
My Florida vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread, and Total
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
- Florida vs Ole Miss spread: Florida -12.5
- Florida vs Ole Miss over/under: 147.5 points
- Florida vs Ole Miss moneyline: Florida -950, Ole Miss +625
Florida vs Ole Miss Expert NCAAB Pick for Today, Feb. 21
Florida Gators Betting Preview
The Gators look like a contender to win back-to-back NCAA Tournament titles. The Gators have won 11 of their last 12 games and are 11-2 in SEC play, holding a two-game lead over second-place Tennessee.
When you flip Bart Torvik’s rankings from January 1 to now, Florida is the second-best team in America, only behind Houston. During that time, the Gators have crushed opponents on the glass, grabbing offensive boards at a 41% rate (third nationally). Plus, they score efficiently inside, shooting 58% on 2-pointers.
The season-long issue is shooting. Even during their dominance since the start of 2026, Florida is shooting 30% from deep, barely up from its 29% average for the season.
The calculus changes a bit if Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland play well.
To be a truly elite team, you need elite guard play — and the Gators' guards have shown occasional flashes. Lee is rounding into form, tallying 18+ points in two of his last three games while dishing seven-plus assists in two as well.
I’m less optimistic about Fland, but good things happen when he plays well. In the win over Kentucky, Fland scored 15, and the Gators won by 20.
On the defensive end, Florida is one of the best units in the country, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Gators limit teams to a minuscule 44% shooting on 2s (fifth-best) and 32% from deep (91st-best).
I talked about Florida being elite at rebounding and defense, and the constant there is the dominance of big man Rueben Chinyelu. Chinyelu can defend 1-5 and boasts the best defensive rebounding percentage at 32.1% and third-best offensive rebounding percentage at 18.1%.
Next to Chinyelu is Thomas Haugh, a contender for SEC Player of the Year, and Alex Condon, another stud on the defensive end.
Haugh is one of the few shooting options for the Gators, hitting 35% from deep. He makes the jumbo lineup work. Since Condon and Chinyelu can’t shoot 3s, Haugh being a worthy shooter keeps defenses honest.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview
Ole Miss nearly snapped its seven-game losing streak, as it led Texas A&M by 13 with 11 minutes left. However, in typical 2026 Ole Miss fashion, it couldn’t seal the deal and will host the best team in the SEC in the midst of an eight-game losing skid.
The Rebels have no true identity. They rank 93rd in offensive efficiency and 78th in defensive efficiency,
per KenPom.
Their lack of scoring is the real issue, as Ole Miss ranks outside the top 200 in 2-point and 3-point percentage. The only thing the Rebels can hang their hat on is their ball control, with a strong 14% turnover rate.
Chris Bears only has a trio of double-digit scorers to rely on. AJ Storr leads the team with 14 points per game, but the Storr experience is one of inconsistency and typically losing results.
Malik Dia starts at the four for Ole Miss and is having a forgettable season. He’s shooting a woeful 24% from deep and doesn’t have the size to body up Condon at the four.
The third capable scorer is Ilias Kamardine, a former French pro who's looked a bit out of sorts against the physical play in the SEC.
How To Make Florida vs. Ole Miss Picks
In this matchup, Ole Miss has to find a way to keep Florida off the boards. Opponents grab offensive rebounds at 32.6% clip against the Rebels, and they allowed Tennessee to grab 17 offensive boards a few weeks back.
You might be thinking, laying 12.5 points on the road seems lofty. However, Florida has climbed that hurdle numerous times during its current ascension.
The Gators won road games by 19+ points against Texas A&M, Georgia and South Carolina in the last month. These are true road warriors that have the perfect style of play to dominate in any venue.
Give me the Gators.
My Pick: Florida -12.5
