The Florida Gators take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, MO. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Florida is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a price of 75-cent to win and the total set at 155.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Florida vs. Missouri predictions and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Florida vs Missouri Prediction
My Pick: Florida -6.5
My Florida vs Missouri best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs. Missouri Odds
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Florida vs Missouri College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida and Mizzou kick off SEC play on Saturday, each looking to pad their NCAA Tournament resumes.
Defending champ Florida has had a tough start to the season, losing four contests, but rest assured, it’s still a surefire top 15 team. The Gators lost by six to Arizona, by one to Duke, by four to UConn and somehow by four to TCU. The margins have been razor-thin and the competition has been elite.
Mizzou has a better record than Florida, but it's also played one of the softest schedules in the country. And when faced with real competition, the Tigers have turned into kittens. Mizzou is just 1-3 against the spread against power-conference foes, not covering by an average of 9.25 points per game.
The story of this game will be rebounding. Florida has a massive glass edge on its offensive end and it should be able to exploit the Tigers easily with one of the best and deepest frontlines in America.
Mizzou head coach Dennis Gates has never had a top 300 defensive rebounding squad across his six seasons in charge (three years at Cleveland State), and Florida ranks second nationally in offensive rebounding rate this season.
Mizzou’s current defensive rebounding numbers are a façade padded by a soft schedule. Against real teams, the Tigers fold. Illinois grabbed 55.6% of its misses against Mizzou in its last game on its way to a 43-point win.
Florida’s guards have struggled this season, though steady improvement should continue as the campaign progresses. If they can protect the rock and keep the Tigers out of transition, the Gators should win handily.
Mizzou will show a lot of zone looks, which can be confusing to opponents as the Tigers rarely know what they themselves are doing, but the glass is extra exposed in these schemes.
Florida’s half-court offense has stagnated at times with Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland dribbling in circles, but forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are elite on this end.
Mark Mitchell is a great choice to take away Haugh, but Mizzou can’t guard him and also defend Condon and one of either Rueben Chinyelu or Micah Handlogten at the same time.
If Mizzou can’t get out on the open floor, it can’t score. The Tigers get to the rim at an elite rate, ranking ninth in field goal percentage and 32nd in free-throw attempt rate near the cup, but Florida is a strong rim defensive team and a top-five defensive rebounding squad.
Mizzou’s usual offensive glass advantage will be nullified in this contest. And unlike last season, the Tigers have been unable to manufacture offense from the foul line at an elite level.
Florida vs. Missouri Betting Analysis
For however stagnant Florida’s offense can get, Mizzou’s can get twice as bad. If Mitchell isn’t finding driving lanes or posts inside, the Tigers are screwed.
Jacob Crews is the only competent volume 3-point shooter on the roster, and promising point guard Anthony Robinson II has remained inconsistent. Possessions often devolve into isolation ball and ill-advised looks.
Injuries have hurt Mizzou this season with Trent Pierce, Jayden Stone and Jevon Porter missing time, but even fully healthy, the Tigers don’t stand a chance against Florida in their current state.
My Pick: Florida -6.5
