The Florida Gators take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for March 7, 2026.
Florida vs Kentucky Predictions & Picks
My Pick: Over 159.5 (Play to 163)
My Florida vs Kentucky best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs. Kentucky Odds for Today's College Basketball Game
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 159.5 -110 / -110 | -275 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 159.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
- Florida vs Kentucky spread: Florida -6.5
- Florida vs Kentucky over/under: 159.5 points
- Florida vs Kentucky moneyline: Florida -275, Kentucky +200
Florida vs Kentucky Game Preview
Florida Gators
The Gators have had a very unlikely path to being ranked No. 5 overall. They opened the season ranked No. 3 in the nation, but they quickly fell out of the rankings by the beginning of January.
But their ascent back to the top has been as meteoric as their midseason rise to the No. 1 overall seed in last season's NCAA Tournament. They’ve won 10 straight games, including three wins against top-25 opponents.
They're top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, and do so at a torrid pace (24th in adjusted tempo). Their defense also plays high-pressure, and that often forces their opponents to play at their pace.
The Gators are also elite in both offensive rebounding and limiting opponents' offensive rebounds. They're the 14th-tallest team nationally, which contributes to them having one of the country's most elite frontcourts.
While the first half of the season gave us a few reasons to worry, we can’t forget the level of competition they faced early on.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has been in a sort of standstill — good enough to make the tournament based on its name, but not actually a credible threat to a title.
It’s easy to point the finger at Mark Pope, but John Calipari was experiencing much of the same in his late Kentucky years.
Injuries have also played a role in Kentucky's struggles this season.
The defense has been good this season (33rd in defensive efficiency), but the Wildcats have struggled over the last six games. They’ve allowed at least 75 points in five of those games and three times they allowed 86 points.
They'll be able to keep pace with Florida. While Florida is faster, Kentucky is 58th in average possession length. Expect the Wildcats to be faster on Saturday, though.
How To Bet My Florida vs. Kentucky NCAAB Pick
This spread sits between 6.5 and 7.5, but it's the road environment that me skeptical about taking Florida.
I also can’t comfortably back Kentucky in its current form, as I expect the pace and flow of this game to be high octane.
Florida has a very uncanny ability to create a ton of second-chance opportunities via Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu, among others.
Kentucky has been in games that cracked this total in four of its last six games.
Florida has been even better, seeing at least 160 points in eight of its last nine games.
Over is the play.
My Pick: Over 159.5 (Play to 163)
