The Florida Gators take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Alabama is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 178.5 points.
Here are my Florida vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for March 5, 2025.
Florida vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Florida +3.5 (Play to +2)
My Florida vs Alabama best bet is on the Gators spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Alabama Odds, Lines
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
- Florida vs Alabama spread: Alabama -3.5
- Florida vs Alabama over/under: 178.5 points
- Florida vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama -160, Florida +135
- Florida vs Alabama best bet: Florida +3.5 (Play to +2)
My Florida vs Alabama NCAAB Betting Preview
Florida Basketball
A banner year continues for the Gators, who bounced back from a mid-week loss at Georgia last Tuesday by walloping Texas A&M, 89-70, in Gainesville on Saturday.
The Gators look entrenched as one of the top six teams in the country, and they could make an even louder announcement with a win over the Crimson Tide on Wednesday night.
Florida’s superpower this year has been its balance. Offense vs. defense, frontcourt vs. backcourt, perimeter shooting vs. attacking the rim – the Gators have found a way to be good at all of it.
Walter Clayton Jr. is the engine, a lethal perimeter marksman who's expanded his game as a playmaker and driver this season. Backcourt cohort
Alijah Martin is a jack of all trades offensively, and his powerful 210-pound frame and terrific instincts make him a shutdown defender.
Wing Will Richard has erupted the last two games, pouring in 55 combined points on 11-of-20 shooting from beyond the arc.
Reserves Denzel Aberdeen and Urban Klavzar are each capable of impacting the game as well.
Led by Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, the Florida frontcourt was already one of the best in the SEC. But the recent addition of athletic seven-footer Micah Handlogten has further bolstered this massive and versatile unit.
Handlogten suffered a gruesome broken leg last March, but he flew through rehab and returned in time to assert himself as a feverish offensive rebounder and stout rim protector.
Florida’s defense is coming off one of its best performances of the season, suffocating Texas A&M to a disappointing 0.97 points per possession.
Most notably, the Aggies only registered three assists across the entire game; Florida forced tough isolation possession after tough isolation possession.
Alabama Basketball
The Crimson Tide have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the court. Last time we saw them, they blew a late lead and played an awful final minute en route to a buzzer-beating loss at Tennessee.
The Tide led for nearly the entire second half of that game, making the final result that much tougher to swallow.
Late debacle aside, it was an encouraging performance from the Tide. Mark Sears continued to look like a rejuvenated All-American, and Labaron Philon seems fully emerged from a mini slump in early February.
Alabama’s defense, its major concern for all of last year and most of this one, held Tennessee to a pedestrian 1.05 PPP in Knoxville, and the Tide won the rebounding battle against the physical Vols, 43-32.
While some of that may add to the feeling of “missed opportunity,” it's also highly encouraging for the Tide moving forward.
The schedule gauntlet continues, as this Florida matchup is the meat of a “top-five opponent” sandwich. A rematch with arch rival Auburn looms Saturday, but the Tide can't get caught looking ahead.
Overall, Alabama has been exactly what you’d expect from a Oats team. The Tide take a huge volume of triples (28th nationally in 3PA rate, per KenPom), and eschew the mid-range.
Per ShotQuality, Alabama ranks 12th nationally in Rim & Rate, underscoring Oats’ focus on those two key areas.
The plan defensively is the same: Only 74% of opponents’ field goal attempts come from 3-point range or at the rim, the eighth-lowest rate in the country.
Clifford Omoruyi’s rim protection has been a pivotal portal addition, and versatile forward Mouhamed Dioubate has evolved into a complete defensive menace in his own right.
Florida vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
This is a mighty battle with major implications for two SEC titans. Both Florida and Alabama are in the mix for a No. 1 seed, and a huge head-to-head win would be a considerable leg up in that competition (especially on the road for the Gators).
Both schools are on track to earn a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, but if either team closes with an 0-2 week, Missouri could sneak ahead.
Golden’s Gators owned Alabama last season. Florida went 3-0 against the spread, winning two matchups by 14 and 18 points and coming up just short in Tuscaloosa (lost by five).
The Gators’ physicality in the paint overwhelmed Alabama’s frontcourt, and though Omoruyi adds a more aggressive element this season, the Gators’ deep frontline could be a difference-maker.
Even more notable from the Golden vs. Oats head-to-head history, though, is that all four matchups have gone over the total.
Both teams love to play in transition, and that has had a clear compounding effect to the pace of their meetings. Obviously, this game total is quite high, but the last two meetings last year had 192 and 190 points, respectively.
The Sears vs. Clayton matchup is enticing, though it's unlikely they guard each other consistently (expect the sturdy Martin to be all over Sears, forcing him to his right at any moment possible).
I'm torn between betting the Gators and the over, as I think both have value here.
The spot may favor Alabama slightly (back home off a loss, Florida off a huge home win), but the Gators have some matchup edges in the paint, while being able to match or even exceed the Tide’s potent perimeter.
I’ll take the points with the Gators, down to +2, as I think this should be closer to a pick’em.
The total is awfully high, but this game could very easily exceed 80 possessions (KenPom projects 75).
