I love fading road teams who are in a letdown spot following a major upset.
We’ll start with that exact scenario in SEC country before heading to New England to fade an away team burying 3s at an unsustainable rate.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, January 21.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
Alabama broke through last spring and made the program’s first Final Four.
And with that kind of success comes expectations. The AP and Coaches Polls rewarded Bama with a No. 2 preseason ranking.
But then Alabama took two losses before December and tumbled down the rankings. National Player of the Year candidate Mark Sears struggled during the Tide’s first eight games. A knockdown shooter and elite playmaker, Sears was suddenly struggling to find his stroke (28% 3P) and had nearly as many turnovers as he did assists through the end of November.
But that rough patch for both Sears and head coach Nate Oats is officially a thing of the past.
Alabama has won nine of 10, including four victories over ranked opponents. Sears is averaging 21/6/3 on 39% shooting from deep since the calendar turned to December.
The Tide have also taken a massive step forward on the defensive end, elevating their defensive rating from 87th last season to 23rd, according to Evan Miyakawa.
You can see the defensive upgrade in two major ways. Opponents aren’t getting quality looks on a consistent basis. Last season, Alabama ranked outside the top 125 in effective field goal percentage defense. This season, it's 31st in the same statistical category.
And despite playing at the nation’s fastest tempo, the Tide’s defensive upgrades have limited opponents' runs. In 18 games, Alabama has surrendered just two “Kill Shots,” which are runs of 10-0 or more.
Among power conference teams, only Cincinnati and Houston have allowed fewer runs, and the Bearcats and Cougars are defensive stoppers (9th and 1st).
The offense is humming, the defense is finally pulling its weight and Vanderbilt enters in a perfect letdown spot after shocking Tennessee at home on Saturday.
Mark Byington, the architect of James Madison’s 32-win team from last season, has given Vandy an impressive identity in short order. The Commodores like to speed teams up and force turnovers. Vandy is fifth nationally in turnover margin and averages 14 fast break points per game.
But you can’t speed up Alabama — it rolls out of bed and is ready to play at warp speed.
And any turnovers committed by the Tide can be balanced out by their elite work on the offensive glass (12.3 OReb, 11th).
Pick: Alabama -11.5 (Play to -14.5)
VCU vs. Rhode Island
The Rams are enjoying their best start since 2018, Dan Hurley’s final season in Kingston.
Sebastian Thomas is averaging 19 points and six assists per game at the point, which puts him in an exclusive club this season. Only National Player of the Year candidate Kam Jones (Marquette) has hit those scoring and assist thresholds.
This play will sink or swim with Thomas because of VCU’s famed on-ball pressure. Despite his usage, the Rams’ point guard has four games with zero turnovers this season. Avoiding turnovers is paramount because Rhody’s four losses this season can all be traced back to points off of turnovers (14 PPG).
When it’s a half-court affair, Archie Miller’s team is far more buttoned up, particularly when it comes to closing out on shooters (27% 3P, 3rd).
I also like the situational angle of VCU’s fourth road game in three weeks finally catching up with it.
VCU has shot an unsustainable 39% from deep in those road games, far better than its season average.
If the triples aren’t falling at that rate, I’d like to be on the home 'dog on Tuesday.
Pick: Rhode Island +7.5 (Play to +4)
