It's the last full mid-major Thursday slate of the college basketball season. Let's enjoy it with picks for games in the America East and Big West.
But we also have a pick for the massive Big Ten battle on deck, as Michigan State travels to West Lafayette to battle Purdue.
Read on for our college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets for Thursday, Feb. 26.
College Basketball Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 PM | |
  | 8 PM | |
  | 10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Maine vs. Albany Pick
Maine’s offense has trended up lately, as Mekhi Gray and Logan Carey have evolved into half-decent dribble creators in Chris Markwood’s ball-screen motion offense. Combine those two with TJ Biel’s elite rolling ability, and the Black Bears can put points on the board.
That said, I don’t love how their ball-screen-centric offense matches up with Dwayne Killing’s amoeba zone coverages.
On the other end of the court, while Albany can beat Maine’s extended-pressure man-to-man defense, I doubt the Danes can beat Markwood’s elite 2-3 zone coverages without forwards Zach Matulu and Abdoulaye Fall working as mid-post pin-men — I believe both are still out with injuries.
Ultimately, I project only 132.3 points for this America East battle.
Pick: Under 135.5 or Better
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Michigan State vs. Purdue Pick
By Ryan Minion
We are in for one of the best Big Ten matchups of the year on Thursday night as these two conference foes look to solidify their NCAA Tournament resumes with March just around the corner.
Per ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Boilermakers are currently projected to receive a top-two seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, with Michigan State not far behind on the four-seed line — presenting both teams with a big opportunity for another Quad I victory in Thursday’s Big Ten clash.
While Michigan State has proved to be one of the most balanced teams in college basketball, Painter’s bunch thrives on its home floor at Mackey Arena and will surely be looking to bounce back from its home loss to Michigan just a week ago.
As such, I'm inclined to take a chance on Purdue in this spot to pick up a huge conference victory, with the Boilermakers already having dropped three games in West Lafayette this season.
I am not crazy about laying points on the home favorite in this spot in what should be a very closely contested matchup over all 40 minutes. But I will be backing Purdue on the moneyline to prevail outright in Thursday night’s conference battle.
Pick: Purdue ML
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Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC San Diego Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems:
This system, titled Tough Season 2-2-2 System for NCAAB spreads, is built on the idea that the market can become overly punitive toward road teams enduring miserable seasons, especially when the data shows sustained underperformance both straight up and against the number.
By isolating visiting teams in either the regular season or postseason with deeply negative season cover margins, negative average scoring margins, extended losing streaks, and a recent loss, the angle assumes bookmakers inflate spreads to account for public disdain.
When those teams are catching significant points, perception of incompetence often outweighs matchup specifics.
Yet even struggling college programs still feature scholarship athletes, structured defensive schemes, and pride that can surface in single-game settings.
Large spreads create room for variance late, particularly when favorites ease off with a lead or rotate benches.
The result is a scenario where a team having a brutal year can still land inside an exaggerated number because expectations have already been priced to the extreme, turning season-long failure into short-term spread value.
While the Roadrunners have lost 11 straight games, I've been slightly underwhelmed with the Tritons' season. UC San Diego is only 8-11 ATS as a favorite, and it took an outlier shooting performance in the first head-to-head meeting to win by 21 (11-for-27 from 3, 41%). With some regression, I could see this being a single-digit game.
For what it's worth, this system is a whopping 109-77-1 this year (59% win rate, 12% ROI).
Pick: Bakersfield +14 or Better
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