The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Iowa State is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here are my Cincinnati vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for March 12, 2025.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Cincinnati +9.5 (Play to +7)
My Cincinnati vs Iowa State best bet is on the Bearcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Odds, Lines
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -9
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State over/under: 134.5 points
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -450, Cincinnati +350
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State best bet: Cincinnati +9.5 (Play to +7)
My Cincinnati vs Iowa State Big 12 Tournament Betting Preview
Cincinnati got the nod to face Iowa State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament after pounding Oklahoma State, 89-68. It was a full-fledged blowout by the Bearcats, and they needed it after losing to those same Cowboys on Saturday.
These two squads only met once during the regular season. Iowa State managed to sneak away with an 81-70 win, but Cincinnati made it fairly close.
Now, there's no question that Iowa State is a different team than it was in December and January. But why?
Milan Momcilovic, Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert all missed time, as injuries have played a role. The good news is all three are back.
Injuries aren't the only reason for the Cyclones' regression, though. It's been turnovers that have completely killed Iowa State in many games. The Clones have an ugly 19.7% turnover rate since Feb. 1, which has lifted their season-long rate to 16%.
Turnovers were the main culprit for Iowa State's two ugliest losses of the year to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. In that same span, Iowa State ranks No. 24 in Bart Torvik's rankings and has gone 4-5 in its nine games.
I still want to believe in Iowa State because the highs are really, really high. But the lows are terrifyingly low.
The Iowa State guards are tough.
Gilbert is one of the best driving guards in America, Jones is a Lou Williams-type sixth man with his scoring, and Tamin Lipsey is a great passer and a big-time ball defender. You won't find many better backcourts than the Cyclones'.
I wanted to find a way to back the now-healthy Cyclones, but I like Cincinnati here for a couple of key reasons.
The Bearcats are among America's best teams at forcing turnovers. They boast an outstanding 19% turnover rate while also ranking 11th in free-throw rate allowed since Feb. 1.
Those are the two ways to keep this Cyclones team in check. If the opponent isn't letting Iowa State draw fouls, get easy points or force turnovers, it's an awesome schematic matchup.
In the win over Oklahoma State, Cincinnati had a relatively strong offensive performance, scoring 1.12 points per possession. Wes Miller's squad got a nice performance from Day Day Thomas, who scored 21 points, and Josh Reed with 19 points.
Perhaps that pair will provide a little more consistency to Cincinnati's inconsistent offense.
To get the cover here, Cincinnati needs more than seven points from sophomore guard Jizzle James. James and Thomas form a pretty strong guard duo that can close to match Iowa State's dominant guard play.
In all, laying 7.5 points here with Iowa State just feels too lofty. Cincinnati will shut down the Cyclones' already struggling offense, which should lead to a low-scoring duel, making the underdog even more valuable.
