The Auburn Tigers face off against the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU at the Toyota Center.
In this particular matchup, the Cougars are favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is also set at 143.5.
Here are my Auburn vs Houston predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday.
Auburn vs Houston Odds, Spread, Pick
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Auburn vs Houston spread: Houston: -5
- Auburn vs Houston over/under: 141.5
- Auburn vs Houston moneyline: Houston -225, Auburn +185
- Auburn vs Houston best bet: Auburn +5.5
Auburn vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Auburn Basketball
Auburn is one of the winners of the week so far, thanks to its dominant 94-43 win over America East favorites, Vermont. The Tigers put on a defensive clinic, holding a strong offense to 0.63 PPP.
I'll talk Houston's Coach Kelvin Sampson up plenty later on, but he's a game-planning genius when it comes to taking away players. In this case, he'll look to limit Auburn star Johni Broome.
The game plan will feature post-doubles, which Houston is better at than anyone else. Perhaps the solution to Broome getting doubled in the post is playing him on the perimeter more.
That seems like an emphasis from Bruce Pearl, anyway, since he started Dylan Cardwell next to Broome in the Vermont game. Broome's improved jumper allows him to play at the four without sacrificing shooting.
He opened his season with a strong 12-point, seven-rebound performance in just 22 minutes in a blowout against Vermont.
The biggest difference in Auburn's 2024-25 formula is improved guard play. Every offseason report in Auburn centered around Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly being a stud, and early returns look promising. Kelly is a driller from outside who demands frequent attention from defenses — an asset Auburn didn't have a season ago.
It's not just Kelly, though. Furman transfer JP Pegues is a pass-first point guard who comes from a winning program, and freshman Tahaad Pettiford oozes upside every time he touches the floor. Auburn went home in the Round of 64 mainly because of dicey guard play. That's less of a concern now.
It's not the offense that makes Auburn special, though; it's the defense. The Tigers have an advantage in the perimeter defense department with strong defensive options in Chad Baker-Mazara, Chris Moore, and Chaney Johnson.
Baker-Mazara is the type of player an elite defense puts on the opposing team's best player, and he shuts them down. In this case, he'll draw the assignment on either LJ Cryer or Emmanuel Sharp.
Houston Basketball
Houston is one of the most consistent programs in college hoops on a year-in and year-out basis. It's largely due to Sampson's style, which features intense defense and the best rebounding team in college hoops.
The Coogs finished in the top 10 or better in KenPom's defensive efficiency in four consecutive seasons, and that won't change this season. The most valuable of the bunch is forward J'Wan Roberts, a preseason All Big-12 selection, who'll have to impose his defensive will against Auburn's star forward.
The Cougars brought back four starters from a team that advanced to the Sweet 16 and would've been further if Jamal Shead hadn't injured his ankle against Duke. The good news of that situation is it's a precursor to Houston's current team, which doesn't feature the now NBA-bound Shead.
Sampson dipped into the portal and grabbed a player with Big 12 experience in Oklahoma transfer, Milos Uzan. In his Houston debut, Uzan fit like a glove, posting 10 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and an important four steals.
I'm still not entirely sold on Houston in a half-court offensive setting. Who's the go-to guy in those spots? Cryer is likely the go-to guy, but he's more of a 40% shooting guy than a super-efficient scorer. That works in the Coogs system since they crash the offensive glass incredibly well, but Auburn's size could minimize the second chances.
Auburn vs Houston Betting Analysis
The two squads here virtually mirror one another.
Both are elite on the defensive end and have great coaches, but only one has an All-American, and that's Auburn. The only true parallel you can draw for teams who play like Houston is Texas A&M and Iowa State.
Houston played both teams twice last year, and the Cougars covered the spread in just one of those games — at home against the Cyclones.
Very few teams have the size, rebounding and defense like Houston, but Auburn is one of the few.
Pick: Auburn +5.5
