The Army Black Knights take on the UMBC Retrievers in Baltimore, MD. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UMBC is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Army vs. UMBC predictions and college basketball picks for December 12, 2025.
Army vs UMBC Prediction
My Pick: UMBC -8 or Better
My Army vs UMBC best bet is on the Retrievers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Army vs. UMBC Odds
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 145.5 -115o / -105u | +250 |
| UMBC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 145.5 -115o / -105u | -315 |
- Army vs UMBC spread: UMBC -6.5
- Army vs UMBC over/under: 145.5 points
- Army vs UMBC moneyline: Army +250, UMBC -315
Army vs UMBC College Basketball Betting Preview
Army Basketball
Army's record is 4-7 so far this season, though that mark is misleading. The Black Knights have two wins over non-D-I competition and an overtime win over Manhattan. Army's only regulation win over a Division I opponent came over Fairleigh Dickinson, a bottom-five team in the nation, per KenPom.
The Black Knights have an interesting style of play on offense; no team takes more of its field goals from outside the arc (55% of its shots from deep, 35 attempts per game). Unfortunately, Army only makes 30.9% of those attempts.
It's a decent strategy. The service academy has limited options when it comes to recruiting and developing big men. Army starts four guys under 6-foot-4, spreading it out and trying to shoot over opponents.
With a slowed pace, it's a bet that if Army gets hot, the Black Knights will outscore their opponents. So far this season, Army just hasn't shot well enough for it to pay off.
That's especially true given Army's defensive issues. That small lineup gets bullied. Opponents are shooting 60% inside the arc and Army's 10 blocks all season is the lowest mark in the nation.
UMBC Basketball
The Retrievers are expected to compete with Vermont at the top of the America East Conference. So far, this season has been a roller coaster. UMBC was lucky to beat a bad Morgan State team by just two, needed overtime to escape Wagner and blew a seven-point lead in the final two minutes against Buffalo.
UMBC also lost to top-100 teams – Dayton and Georgetown by single digits and beat Bucknell on the road.
Experienced head coach Jim Ferry has a roster capable of executing his vision on the defensive end of the floor. His NCAA Tournament teams at LIU Brooklyn earlier this century loved to force teams off the 3-point line, while avoiding sending opponents to the free-throw line.
When Ferry's teams at Duquesne struggled defensively, they drifted away from that outlook. This UMBC team is back to that plan — a smart one — but it's not quite clicking yet.
The Retrievers are 322nd defensively and don't really force the issue. UMBC struggles to create turnovers or tough enough shots when opponents drive.
UMBC will run you off the 3-point line and make you attack, then avoid the cardinal sin of fouling, but that leaves too many opponents driving into the paint and scoring.
For UMBC to hang with Vermont by March, that'll need to stop.
Army vs. UMBC Betting Analysis
Both of these teams have one thing in their arsenal that they do at an elite level on a national scale. Army attempts the 3-point shot more frequently than any team in the country, with more than 55% of the Black Knights' field goals coming from long range. Meanwhile, UMBC allows one of the lowest rates of attempted 3s in the nation, with opponents taking less than a third of their shots from deep.
In a game of Rock-Paper-Scissors, UMBC has the upper hand. Army is going to find a way to take its looks from outside the arc, but against a defense dedicated to running teams off the line, expect some contested or ill-advised looks.
That's especially troubling given Army shoots a ton of triples without making a great percentage.
Army just doesn't have the off-the-dribble answer to make UMBC pay for its 3-point prevention. The Retrievers should shut down Army's scoring and I'll take them to win and cover.
My Pick: UMBC -8 or Better
