The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Alabama is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is also set at 164 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for November 15, 2024.
Alabama vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Alabama -2.5
My Alabama vs Purdue best bet is on the Tide spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Purdue Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | -160 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | +135 |
- Alabama vs Purdue spread: Alabama -3
- Alabama vs Purdue over/under: 164.5 points
- Alabama vs Purdue moneyline: Alabama -160, Purdue +135
- Alabama vs Purdue best bet: Alabama -2.5
My Alabama vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Alabama Basketball
Alabama's bitter rival — Auburn — is overshadowing it right now, and it's for good reason.
The Crimson Tide had two narrow wins over two good mid-majors — Arkansas State and McNeese State — but the Tide were nearly 20-point favorites in both games.
Alabama's offense issues are easy to figure out — it's shooting just 30% from 3 while attempting triples on 47% of its offensive possessions. The Tide's offense won't be the best in the sport — as everyone projected in the preseason — if they shoot below 35% from 3.
The good thing is the sample is small. Three games is just a minor blip in the radar; even the best shooting teams encounter a three-game shooting lull. The timing is unfortunate, though, as it's the first three games of the season.
Strangely, Mark Sears has posted relatively tame numbers through three games (18 points per game, which is down from 21.5). He's also attempting 9.3 shots per game (down from 13.4 last year).
That will likely change, though, as Sears is shooting less because his usage rate is down from 25% last year to 20% this year.
That puts him fourth on Alabama in usage rate (behind Grant Nelson, Labaron Philon and Mouhamed Dioubate).
This is possibly the front-runner for National Player of the Year we're talking about, so Sears is Alabama's engine. He can flip a game with his performance.
I won't discount that not having an elite wing shooter like the injured Chris Youngblood is why Sears is off the ball more. Philon replaces Youngblood in the lineup, but he is more of a playmaker than a scorer. Sears needs the ball more than Philon, regardless of the circumstances.
Alabama has one clear advantage — its size. Nate Oats trotted out a lineup big enough to serve as the Tide's football offensive line — three players 6-foot-11 or taller, Nelson, Jarin Stevenson and shot-swatter Clifford Omoruyi.
Purdue has no response for that.
Purdue Basketball
Purdue is much different than the team that made the National Championship a season ago. Of course, it begins with Zach Edey's departure. There's no replacement for a two-time National Player of the Year winner, but the next man up — freshman Daniel Jacobsen — suffered a season-ending injury.
Where does that leave Purdue's interior? In a bad, bad spot.
The best option is probably playing smaller with Trey Kaufman-Renn at the five, but he looks better at the four. Then the other option is 7-footer Will Berg, who's struggled in his minutes this year.
If you want a context on Purdue's interior struggles, Yale center Samson Aletan scored 12 points against the Boilers after scoring two in the Bulldogs' previous two games.
That's a scary thought leading into this meeting.
Most of my Purdue-related concerns stem from defensive issues. The Boilermakers allowed 1.00 PPP or more in games against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Yale. That's a concerning trend through three games.
If Purdue can't contain Yale or Texas A&M-CC, how can anyone expect it to slow down Alabama's up-tempo offense? I can't find a reason to buy into Purdue's defensive issues suddenly improving.
The heart and soul of Purdue is Braden Smith. The junior guard is on an All-American-esque tear, averaging 15 points, 9.3 assists and 6.3 rebounds in three games. Purdue needs Smith to have a scorer's mindset, and he's doubled his 3-point attempts from three to six per game.
The Boilermakers have a trio of Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer that is averaging 15+ points per game. The problem is nobody else averages double digits.
The next closest is Myles Colvin (9.3 PPG), who is much improved from his freshman season, But then it's a barrage of unready freshman in C.J. Cox and Gicarri Harris, who don't appear ready for prime college hoops action.
Alabama vs Purdue Betting Analysis
Alabama is flat-out the better team here. Although Mackey Arena is tough, I can't find a reason to take the Boilermakers here.
They haven't looked good yet — not that Alabama has, but I see the potential in the Tide.
Purdue seems severely overrated by metrics, ranking 12th in KenPom.
I would be stunned if the Boilermakers finished the season top-20 in KenPom, let alone bordering the top-10.
