The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in Grand Forks, ND. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Alabama is favored by 25 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. The total is set at 167 points.
Here are my Alabama vs. North Dakota predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Alabama vs North Dakota Prediction
My Pick: Over 167.5 (Play to 169)
My Alabama vs North Dakota best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs North Dakota Odds, Lines
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25 -110 | 167 -110 / -110 | -8000 |
| North Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25 -110 | 167 -110 / -110 | +1800 |
- Alabama vs North Dakota spread: Alabama -25
- Alabama vs North Dakota over/under: 167 points
- Alabama vs North Dakota moneyline: Alabama -8000, North Dakota +1800
- Alabama vs North Dakota best bet: Over 167.5 (Play to 169)
My Alabama vs North Dakota NCAAB Betting Preview
Alabama Basketball
You're probably wondering why Alabama is playing a game in Grand Forks, North Dakota. That's a brilliant question. Well, the best explanation is the Crimson Tide wanted to give starting forward Grant Nelson one more chance to play in front of his family in his home state.
Nate Oats put together a daunting schedule, so North Dakota is — by far — the easiest opponent for the Tide. The previous worst opponent — UNC Asheville– is No. 160 in KenPom, compared to No. 302 North Dakota.
It still feels like Alabama has another gear. Shooting is the name of the game for Oats-coached teams, but Alabama is shooting just 31% from 3 with over 47% of its shots coming from downtown. Despite the shooting woes, Alabama enters as the sixth-most efficient offense in America, per KenPom.
Sure, losing Latrell Wrightsell Jr. to a season-ending injury hurts, but reinforcements have arrived. Chris Youngblood, a transfer from South Florida, and Houston Mallette, a transfer from Pepperdine, will add some much needed depth and shooting.
Youngblood shot over 40% from 3 last year and is similar to Mallette in that he is known for his shooting chops.
Alabama can exploit North Dakota's porous defense with its length. The Crimson Tide start a trio of players who stand 6-foot-11 or taller, while North Dakota's tallest starter is 6-foot-8.
Scoring inside — primarily on layups since Oats hates mid-range shots — is where Alabama thrives. It shoots an impressive 60% from 2-point range and can create multiple looks thanks to a stout 34% offensive rebounding rate.
North Dakota Basketball
This is the most important game in the history of the North Dakota basketball program. The gym is already sold out and and top-10-ranked teams from the SEC seldom travel to Summit League schools.
The Fighting Hawks' defense is amongst the worst in college basketball, ranking 346th out of 364 D-I teams in defensive efficiency. If you want to dive deeper, here are a few telling stats: North Dakota surrendered 80+ points in five consecutive games while allowing 1.10 PPP or more.
Those were games against Weber State, Eastern Washington, Utah Valley and UTSA twice. Those are not exactly teams of Alabama's caliber.
Paul Sather certainly has some talented scoring options, though. The best of the bunch is veteran guard Treysen Eaglestaff, who averages 18 points per game and shoots over 37% from 3. He will need a dominant scoring game to keep North Dakota in range to cover.
It can't be a solo scoring effort from Eaglestaff for the total to go over. If other pieces like Dariyus Woodson, Amar Kuljuhovic and Mier Panoam add some scoring, it will make the path to an over easier.
The schedule for North Dakota hasn't been nearly as demanding as most Summit League teams, as it has faced only one team in KenPom's top 100 — Notre Dame. The other team close to the top 100 is Colorado State, and that was another convincing loss for North Dakota.
Alabama vs. North Dakota Betting Analysis
While the total is high at 167.5, I don't think it's high enough. I outlined how easily teams score against North Dakota's defense, and those are squads that are not great offensively.
When it comes to carving up this defense for triple-digit points, an elite offense like Alabama is perfect.
In fact, I'd be surprised if Alabama didn't score 100+ points, which means all North Dakota needs is 68+ points.
That feels very possible, especially with the home crowd and the fact that North Dakota is willing to push the tempo and shoot a lot.
