The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Alabama is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. The total is set at 171.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction and college basketball picks for January 13, 2026.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Alabama -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Alabama vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 171.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 171.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
- Alabama vs Mississippi State spread: Alabama -6.5
- Alabama vs Mississippi State over/under: 171.5 points
- Alabama vs Mississippi State moneyline: Alabama -315, Mississippi State +255
Alabama vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
Alabama Basketball
Alabama took an absolute stunner of a loss in its last game at home against Texas. The Crimson Tide now head into this one as losers of two straight, one of which was to Vandy (there's no shame in that).
Even with the losses, the Crimson Tide are still humming offensively. They scored 90 in the loss to Vandy and 88 in the loss to Texas. The offense isn't the problem, to nobody's surprise.
As all Nate Oats-coached teams do, Alabama is going to let it fly from deep. The Tide shoot 3s on 53% of their field goals, which is the second most nationally. They connect on 35% of them, but they can post strong offensive outings even on bad shooting nights.
That's due to the brilliance of guard Labaron Philon Jr. and the floor-spacing allowed by the Tide's shooting.
Philon is one of the best guards in the country, posting 21.3 points and 5.1 assists per game. However, he missed a game due to injury recently and left the Vandy matchup due to cramps. He's 4-for-22 from deep over his last four games, so I wonder if his shooting is off due to cramping and injury issues.
Philon and Aden Holloway are one of the premier guard duos in the country. Holloway averages 18 points per game and shoots 46% from deep. That pair is the engine for this high-octane, heavy shooting squad.
Defense is the problem for Alabama. It ranks 77th in defensive efficiency, but the issue might not be what you think.
The strength for the Tide is defending 2-point field goals, limiting teams to 47% shooting in that range.
On the flip side, it ranks 227th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric. The Tide's bigs are seemingly always in foul trouble, which tests their depth in a big way. It'll be pivotal for the bigs to avoid fouling the speedy Josh Hubbard when he gets downhill.
Moreover, Alabama is 282nd in defensive rebounding rate. The second shot is more of a killer than the first shot for the Tide. Texas grabbed 18 offensive boards and made Alabama pay.
Mississippi State Basketball
Mississippi State is in the running for the worst team in the SEC, but the league is deep. The Bulldogs looked brutal in the non-conference, barely sneaking past most buy game foes. But they won six straight games before Saturday's ugly loss to Kentucky, with wins over Oklahoma and Texas.
Here's what will decide if Mississippi State can reel in an upset here: How much will Hubbard and Jayden Epps score?
Hubbard is one of the best — if not the best– scorers in the SEC. He scored 38 against Texas and 30 against Oklahoma and tallies 22.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Epps is the other double-digit scorer on the roster.
Mississippi State doesn't have a true identity. It ranks 89th in offensive efficiency and 67th in defensive efficiency. The best thing the Bulldogs do is limit teams to 30% from deep, a stat driven by some luck and variance.
To me, Hubbard will need a 35+ point performance for them to have a shot. The Bulldogs are a terrible shooting team, connecting on 31% from deep. If Alabama blitzes Hubbard, it'll force him to be more of a passer. With a heavy analytical approach, Oats should get creative to limit Hubbard.
The rest of the Bulldogs' lineup is just clunky. Achor Achor has notched three straight double-doubles, but he's a non-shooter. At the five, Quincy Ballard can be exposed by the Bama shooters and guards on switches, and Shawn Jones Jr. also can't shoot, but he's a rugged defender.
I just don't get the construction of this lineup, at all.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Analysis
I'm laying the points here. Alabama can put its foot on the gas and blow anybody out, especially poor defensive teams.
If you want to beat Alabama, you need to be good at a few things. One is getting to the foul line, which Mississippi State struggles with (251st in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric).
Grabbing offensive boards is another way to beat Alabama, and the Bulldogs grab just 32% of their misses.
The final way is limiting transition opportunities. With all the bricks the Bulldogs lay, the Crimson Tide should have chances to run.
I'll lay 6.5 points on the road with Alabama, which has lost back-to-back games.
My Pick: Alabama -6.5 (Play to -8)
