March Madness Final Four Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Before we start, it’s important to know this is a live-running article. Content, matchups, odds, trends, and systems will all be added to the piece through Saturday’s action on April 4th (check the updated as-of date below!).
No. 1 Arizona, No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Connecticut and No. 3 Illinois — The Final Four is set and we are on to Indy.
We're here to answer tourney questions, dish out stats and facts, talk futures, the bracket, coaches, Cinderella, and more. Welcome to the March Madness Final Four edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, March 30, at 2 p.m. ET.
Tight Games
Toss Up
Michigan vs. Arizona.
Illinois vs. UConn.
Both games have spreads under 3 points currently, with Michigan -1.5 and Illinois -2. It would be the 7th time both semifinal games closed under 3, but the first time ever if they both closed under -2. 2026's Final Four has combined spreads of 3.5 points, tied for the lowest mark since 1985 (it was 3.5 in 1980 and 1977).
Cover Kings
Huskies Back
Since the 2023 NCAA Tournament, UConn is 17-1 ATS. The only team to cover against them? Furman this year. Going back to 2009 dance, UConn is 33-7 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
Dan Hurley is 10-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later in the NCAA Tournament, the best mark for any head coach in the seeding era, with a minimum of five games coached. With UConn, Hurley is also 14-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.
Overall as a program, UConn has won 18 consecutive games outright in the Sweet 16 or later, the second-longest streak all-time to UCLA's 28-game streak between 1964 and 1974.
Bad History
ATS records for all four teams this season:
Arizona: 24-14 ATS (36-2 SU)
Illinois: 22-14 ATS (28-8 SU)
Michigan: 18-20 ATS (35-3 SU)
UConn: 15-23 ATS (33-5 SU)
If Michigan or Connecticut wins it all and finishes below .500 ATS on the season, they would be the first champion under .500 ATS since Kentucky in 2012 and just 3rd to do so since 2000 with 2004 UConn.
• If Michigan won it all at 18-22 ATS, they would have the 2nd-lowest ATS win pct of the last 30 years.
• If UConn won it all at 17-23 ATS, they would have the lowest ATS win pct of the last 30 years.
Lowest ATS Win Pct, NCAA Champion — Last 30 Years
2012 Kentucky, 43.6%
2004 UConn, 45.7%
1999 UConn, 46.9%
1997 Arizona, 46.9%
Godzilla vs. Kong
Final Four For Ages
1 seeds Arizona and Michigan face off in the Final Four. The question is, could this be considered one of the best Final Four matchups of all time?
Here's the full argument:
🎰 Tight Line: -1.5 — essentially a coin flip. 2nd-tightest line of any 1v1 Final Four game since 1975, behind only 2002 Kansas–Maryland (-1).
🔮 Tight Futures: Michigan at +350, Arizona at +400 entering the tourney (+750 — tied for 2nd-lowest combined odds of any Final Four matchup since 2000, behind 2002 Kansas-Maryland at +650 and 2025 Florida–Auburn at +750).
💪 Dominant #1: Combined average win margin of +43.0 entering the Final Four ranks 4th all-time since 1975 among all 101 Final Four matchups. Michigan averaged +22.5 points per win entering the Final Four, Arizona +20.5 — the most evenly matched dominant pairing by win margin of any Final Four game since 1975. Every prior game in the top-4 had one team doing the heavy lifting.
❌ Dominant #2: Michigan ranked #1 nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjDE), Arizona #3 — the best combined defensive pairing of any Final Four game in KP era. Only 2017 Gonzaga–South Carolina (rank sum of 5) comes close.
📈 Dominant #3: Combined AdjEM(*): 75.25 — the highest combined adjusted efficiency margin of any Final Four matchup in the KP era, edging 2025 Duke–Houston (73.6).
(*)Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions.
(**)KP era — KenPom Era (since 2001-02)
All Chalk
Odds to Win National Championship Entering NCAA Tournament:
Michigan: +350
Arizona: +400
Illinois: +2000
UConn: +2200
With UConn's win over Duke, you are guaranteed a team that had 20-1 or higher odds entering the NCAA Tournament in the title game with UConn or Illinois.
This will be the 13th time since 1985 that a team with 20-1 odds or higher entering the Tournament has made the final, facing a team with odds below that mark. The previous twelve 20-1 or higher long shots went 3-9 SU in the title game, with the winners: 2006 Florida, 1988 Kansas, and 1985 Villanova.
This is the 4th time UConn will make the Final Four after having 15-1 odds or longer to win it all entering the NCAA Tournament — doing so in 2011, 2014, 2023 and 2026. UConn is now tied with Michigan State, Syracuse and Villanova in Final Four trips at 15-1 odds or longer entering the tournament.
New Super Power
Big Ten On Top
Big Ten is looking for the holy grail. Their first title since 2000 and recently, their best teams have stepped up to the plate.
This is the conference's biggest title drought in tournament history. The second-biggest was between 1960-1976 and ended with Indiana's perfect season.
This season, Big Ten favorites are 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS facing non-Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament. Over the last three tournaments, Big Ten favorites are 34-5 SU and 29-10 ATS in the tournament, with the Big Ten looking like favorites in the Final Four currently.
Quiet on the Western Front
Arizona Two Wins Away
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all. We only have one team left in the field that fits this criteria … of course, it's Arizona.
Reversal of Fortune
Have A Lead, Hold A Lead?
Teams that led at the half in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 went 4-8 against the second-half spread in this year’s NCAA Tournament. In the Sweet 16 or later of the last two NCAA Tournaments, teams that lead at the half are just 8-19 against the second-half spread – the tournament has been full of comebacks.
Worst 2H ATS in Sweet 16 or Later — Teams Leading At Half Since 2005:
All About Experience
How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — impact results? Both Dusty May and Jon Scheyer have Final Four experience.
Dan Hurley: 3rd
Dusty May: 2nd
Tommy Lloyd: 1st
Brad Underwood: 1st
In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 120-71 SU in the Final Four and national championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 76-47 SU.
Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach is 71-46 SU and 62-54-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 44-32 SU and 39-36-1 ATS.
Recently, the inexperienced head coach has been able to cover the big game. Since 2014, in the Final Four and title game, a coach with no Final Four experience, facing a coach who has been to the Final Four as a head coach before, is 12-5-1 ATS, but just 9-9 SU in those games.
Three To One
New World
We've seen 75 instances of a head coach entering a National Semifinal or Title Game with a 2+ Final Four appearance advantage against their opponent — like Hurley vs. Underwood. Those coaches are 48-27 SU and 39-34-2 ATS. Of those 75 instances, 18 were listed as an underdog. They went 7-11 SU and 11-7 ATS.
Looking specifically at coaches with a 2+ Final Four advantage, where the opposing coach is in his first trip. The experienced coach is 31-17 SU and 21-25-2 ATS. Only ten of those teams were listed as underdogs; they went 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS.
March Madness 2026
Futures | Matchups | Bet Labs | Trends |
Final Four
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Future Markets & Notes
Here's a look at the BetMGM futures market, from opening to current lines to win it all:
What are the highest odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since seeding began in 1978? Only four teams listed above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title in that same time frame — If Arizona, Michigan or Illinois win it stays true … if UConn wins, they get added to the list for the third time.
2014 Connecticut
100-1 pre-tournament
1985 Villanova
35-1 pre-tournament
2011 Connecticut
25-1 pre-tournament
1983 NC State
25-1 pre-tournament
Entering the Sweet 16, momentum historically had been key — but how much does that show up in the odds board?
In the last 20 years of March Madness, we’ve only seen TWO teams win the title after having above 10-1 odds to win it all entering the Sweet 16…
Villanova in 2016 at 11-1 odds…
UConn in 2014 at 28-1 odds…
This trend continues if Michigan or Arizona wins and blows out UConn or Illinois, who were 22-1 and 14-1 entering the Sweet 16.
Duke entered the tournament as the betting favorite at +300, just ahead of Michigan, and is now out of the dance.
How have pre-tournament favorites performed in March Madness recently? The pre-tournament favorite has gone on to win it all 11 times since 2000, including the last two years prior to this one, with Florida last year (was tied with Duke at the top) and UConn the year before. That was the first time we've had the pre-tourney favorite win it all in consecutive years since 2017-18.
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The Four Favorite
Arizona On Top
Arizona enters the Final Four as the favorite to win it all, just ahead of Michigan. How tight is the margin at the top? Arizona's +165 odds as the favorite is the longest price for the favorite entering the Final Four since 2007 and 3rd-shortest since 1985.
2003 Texas and 2007 Florida both closed +200 as the favorite — 2003 Texas lost in the semifinal and 2007 won it all.
History says Arizona or Michigan will win it all. Top-two title odds favorites entering Final Four have won it all in 20 of the past 21 tournaments (2014 UConn was the only team in that span to win outside the top 2 entering the Final Four).
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UConn Huskies
The story of the NCAA Tournament is UConn's comeback over Duke in the Elite 8. Down by 19 points and 15 at the half, Huskies send Duke home after the Blue Devils lost in a similar fashion last year. UConn's 19-pt comeback is tied for the 6th-biggest in tournament history and the second 19-pt comeback we've seen this tournament with VCU over North Carolina.
2012 BYU — down 25
2001 Duke — down 22
2018 Nevada — down 22
2005 Louisville — down 20
2007 Ohio State — down 20
2026 UConn — down 19
2026 VCU — down 19
The other six teams went 2-4 SU/ATS in their next game after completing the massive comeback. The closest comparison to UConn would be 2005 Louisville, who came back from 20 pts down in the Elite Eight against West Virginia and then went to the Final Four to face … Illinois, who they lost to by 15.
Braylon Mullins is the 6th player to hit a game-winning shot in the final seconds of an Elite 8 game. The previous five went 4-1 SU in the semifinal, with 2017 UNC and 1992 Duke winning it all. The only semifinal loss was in 2009 against Villanova.
Dan Hurley is 10-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later in the NCAA Tournament, the best mark for any head coach in the seeding era, with a minimum of five games coached – the second-best is Brad Stevens at 7-1 ATS. With UConn, Hurley is also 14-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.
UConn trailed Duke by 15 points at the half and came back and won outright. Over the last two seasons, UConn has come back from 6+ pts down at the half to win five other times; they are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their next game after pulling the comeback. This was Dan Hurley's biggest halftime deficit since 2020 and he had lost 21 straight down 10+ at the half — last winning outright in 2014 with Rhode Island before last week.
Facing Illinois in the Final Four will be the 4th time Dan Hurley faces a school for a second time in the NCAA Tournament, also facing Illinois back in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The previous three times Hurley faced that team the second time, he went 3-0 SU/ATS (2026 Duke, 2025 Oklahoma, 2024 San Diego State). This will be just the second time he faces a coach again in the dance, beating Brian Dutcher 82-52 at San Diego State in 2024.
Hurley has been listed as an underdog in four NCAA Tournament games, two with Rhode Island and two with UConn, he is 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS in those games.
The Sweet 16 and the Final Four are the ultimate prep time games. Later in the tournament, better teams and longer prep time between games. Dan Hurley is 5-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 and National Semifinal games combined — tied for best all-time in the seeding era (min. 5 games) alongside John Chaney and Rollie Massimino, both also at 5-0 ATS.
Connecticut has played 62 non-conference games over the past four seasons — they are 56-6 SU and 44-18 ATS. When they faced a non-conference opponent with a lower over/under (142 or less), they are a perfect 21-0 SU (18-3 ATS).
UConn has handled Big Ten competition with ease, going 7-0 SU and ATS against the conference since the start of the 2022 season, beating UCLA and Michigan State in this year's tournament.
True Blue Devil
UConn came back to slay the beast and knock out Duke while trailing by as much as 19 pts and by 15 pts at halftime.
Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-9 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament, including 2-10 SU in their last 12 such games after taking down the Blue Devils.
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Illinois Illini
Brad Underwood has coached in 21 total NCAA Tournament games with Illinois, Oklahoma State and Stephen F. Austin — in those games, his teams have performed better ATS when time to prep:
• Round 64/Sweet Sixteen/Final 4: 9-3 ATS
• Round 32/Elite Eight: 4-5 ATS
Underwood’s 75% ATS win pct in the “more prep time” rounds — Round 64, Sweet 16, Final 4 — is tied for 4th-best (min 10 games) for any coach since 1985:
- Chris Beard: 9-1 ATS
- Chris Mack: 8-2 ATS
- Dan Hurley: 10-3 ATS
T4. Brad Underwood: 9-3 ATS
T4. John Beilein: 15-5 ATS
Illinois is a 3 seed and has a +19.8 average point differential entering the Final Four — Illinois ranks 4th out of 63 teams seeded 3 or worse to reach the Final Four since 1985:
2023 UConn, +22.5 (Won Title)
1992 Cincinnati, +20.8
2013 Syracuse, +20
2026 Illinois, +19.8
Illinois lost to Wisconsin in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament and are now in the Final Four. Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in a conference tournament won at least one game in that appetizer for March Madness. Illinois could break that trend.
Illinois is coming on at the right time. 4-game SU and ATS win streak entering Final 4 off a loss entering the dance. Teams in that same spot since 2005 are 11-6-1 ATS in the semifinal, covering the spread by 3.6 PPG.
Illinois won as a favorite in the Elite 8. UConn won as an underdog. Now, Illinois is favored vs. UConn in the Final Four. When those three conditions meet in the Final Four since 1985, the favorite is 25-8 SU and they've won ten in a row outright in the Final Four:
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Arizona Wildcats
Tommy Lloyd has been great in the NCAA and Conference Tournament play. He is 22-6 SU at Arizona, including 6-1 SU in games with a spread of 4 or less.
In NCAA Tournament games where Lloyd had 4+ days to prep, he is 5-4 SU, his teams are 5-0 SU with 3 days or less and more of a quick turn format.
Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the 2026 NCAA Tournament and was 2-1 ATS in last year’s tournament, 6-1 ATS combined. Between 2014-24 tournaments, Arizona was 4-15-1 ATS in the big dance.
Arizona is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2001. Arizona is playing in the Final Four in KC, Charlotte, Indy, and Minnesota, entering this year — winning title once — in Indy in 1997, the same site of this year’s tournament.
Arizona is the lone remaining undefeated team SU vs. non-conference opponents, at 17-0 SU and 11-6 ATS.
Arizona has faced an offense in the top-10 adjusted offensive efficiency four times this year, and they’ve won by 15, 21, 21 and 6 pts, with the close game vs. Florida back in November.
Arizona trailed at the half against Purdue and came back to win and advance to the Final Four. This season, Arizona has trailed at the half in five other games and then went 5-0 SU in their next game, winning by 18.2 PPG.
Arizona has been listed as an underdog three times this season — in Houston back in February, in UConn back in November and against Florida on a neutral court in Las Vegas — Arizona is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games.
When Koa Peat scores, Arizona wins. This season, Arizona is 28-0 SU when Peat scores 10 points or more and just 5-2 SU when he scores under 10 points.
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Michigan Wolverines
When leading at the half in road or neutral-site games, Michigan has won 21 consecutive games outright dating back to February of 2025.
Battle of the masters of tight spreads. Over the last two seasons, Arizona is 10-2 SU/ATS in games with a spread of 3 pts or less, Michigan is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in those games.
Some long prep for Dusty May and Michigan this week, beating Tennessee on Sunday and facing Arizona on Saturday. This season, Michigan has played 11 games on 4+ days rest, Michigan is 11-0 SU in those games.
Michigan was the 8th team to score 90+ points in each of its 1st three games of the NCAA Tournament since 1985. Only 1 of the previous 7 went on to win it all — 1989 Michigan. After scoring 95 against Tennessee, they’ve scored 90+ in four straight while advancing to the Final Four. Only other team to do that? 1989 Michigan.
Michigan is the first team ever to win 4+ games in an NCAA Tournament by double digits, while scoring 90+ points in each.
Michigan won the Elite 8 vs. Tennessee by 32 pts. In the seeding era, this is the 3rd time a team has won by 32+ in the Elite 8, the other two times that team won it all: 1989 Michigan and 1981 Indiana.
Yaxel Lendeborg on the boards has led to winning for Michigan this season. When Lendeborg has 8+ rebounds, Michigan is 14-0 SU this season. Lendeborg had 7 rebounds against Tennessee in the last round.
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Bet Labs Systems
Let's take a look at some NCAA Tournament systems. Click each system for matches, bets, and detailed profitability charts.
Free-throw shooting in the tournament is key. This system targets the better shooting teams vs. the teams shooting under 75%. In this year's tournament, these teams are 15-9 ATS.
Current matches: Illinois
This system looks to bet against good ATS teams this season, especially when the good ATS team is also the public side.
Current match: Michigan
Check the markets on this one, but this is a system that looks at first half unders when the public is loving the over.
Current matches: UConn/Illinois
Slow pace. Good rebounding. Neutral court. Those three signals have shown a lean to unders historically.
Current matches: UConn/Illinois
Steady totals in semifinal or finals of any tournament.
Current matches: Michigan/Arizona
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Slow It Down
The Final Four is in Indianapolis, Indiana at Lucas Oil Stadium this year. In seeding era, the venue hosted also in 1980, 1991, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2010, 2015, 2021 and now again in 2026.
Lucas Oil Stadium has hosted 40 college basketball games since 2013. Here are a few facts about those games and the arena:
- The first half over is 24-16 in those 40 games as Lucas Oil, going over the total by 2.1 PPG. Those 1st half overs went 11-6 in the NCAA Tournament.
- Of those 40 games at Lucas Oil, only three closed at 150 or higher, which it looks like Michigan and Arizona will. Those games went 3-0 to the under, all in the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Pay attention to second half unders late in the NCAA Tournament. At Lucas Oil Stadium, second half unders are 16-11 in the NCAA Tournament.
In the national championship game since 2011, the second half under is 11-3, going under the total by 3.6 PPG and one of the three losses was the Virginia-Texas Tech overtime game.
In the Final Four and title game, the second half under is 28-14 and in the Elite 8 or later, the 2nd half under is 66-36 (65%) since 2011.
Blue Blood
Program History
Connecticut is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread in national title games. That's the best win percentage in national title games, with the most wins, among all programs.
UConn is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in the Final Four — National Semifinal and the Title game — in program history.
If you add up the Huskies men's titles and women's titles in basketball, they have 18 total national championships. Second on the list is UCLA with 11 men's titles (no women's) and then Kentucky with eight men's and Tennessee with eight women's titles. The only program with two or more titles in men's and women's is Connecticut.
In seeding era (1977-78), UConn is 3rd program to go to three Final Four's in four years, while having 15-1 or higher odds entering the tournament in that 3rd and final trip, joining 2014 Kentucky at 50-1 and 2000 North Carolina at 75-1, both failed to win it all.
Start Early
Openers Matter
Since 1985, champions have won their Round 64 game by 15+ points in 34 of 40 tournaments (85%) — so it's a strong tendency overall. But as a clean streak, 2015 is the right cutoff — the last 10 champions have all done it without exception.
Of the 2026 Final Four, Arizona (+34), Illinois (+35), and Michigan (+21) fit the pattern — UConn (+11) does not, which makes UConn the outlier if they were to win the title.
Perfect Person
Undefeated Cover
Arizona and Illinois enter the Final Four both 4-0 ATS in this year's NCAA Tournament. Which can have a different omen if you are favored or an underdog in that Final Four game:
As a FAVORITE in the FF: 16-6 SU, 12-9 ATS
Illinois fits here — 73% win rate SU. Recent run: UConn 2023 (W), UConn 2024 (W), Duke 2015 (W), Villanova 2018 (W) — favorites who entered 4-0 ATS have been on a tear lately.
As an UNDERDOG in the FF: 8-26 SU, 12-21 ATS
Arizona fits here — just 24% win rate SU, and they rarely cover either. The exceptions are notable, though: 1985 Villanova (won the title), 1991 Duke (won the title), 2014 UConn (won the title), 2019 Texas Tech (runner-up).
Down To Earth
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 29-30-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship game — almost dead even. In this year's tournament, the public is 29-31 ATS, almost dead even as well.
When looking at the biggest public sides in just the Final Four and National Title game, they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the Final Four. Only one team has closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher since 2008, and that was Duke last year who blew the lead and lost to Houston.
Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
| UNC (-2.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Final Four UNC (70%) | Kansas, 84-66 |
 | Memphis (-1.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Title Game Memphis (65%) | Kansas, 75-68 |
| Duke (-4.5) vs. Houston | 2025, Final Four Duke (64%) | Houston, 70-67 |
 | LSU (-1.5) vs. UCLA | 2006, Final Four LSU (63%) | UCLA, 59-45 |
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