The Golden State Warriors (3-1) and Houston Rockets (1-3) will face off in Game 5 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Rockets are 4-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Rockets -4), with the over/under set at 204 total points. Houston is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 30.
Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 5
Jimmy Butler's return seemed to galvanize the Warriors, as he led all scorers with 27 points in the latest matchup of this series. Butler can play the role of a closer, which is something the Rockets desperately need offensively.
With the series shifting back to Houston for Game 5 tonight, the Rockets are as high as 4-point favorites after opening at -2.5.
However, my model makes the Rockets closer to -3.5, and I believe that extra half-point could come in handy for the visiting underdogs.
My Pick: Warriors +4 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets Betting Odds for Wednesday, April 30
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 204 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 204 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Warriors vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -4
- Warriors vs. Rockets over/under: 204 total points
- Warriors vs. Rockets moneyline: Warriors +150, Rockets -180
- Warriors vs. Rockets best bet:Warriors +4 (-110)
My Rockets vs. Warriors Game 5 best bet is on Golden State to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Game 5 Betting Preview
The Rockets have to be kicking themselves as they face playoff elimination heading into Game 5 tonight. After all, they had the largest rebounding edge of any first-round matchup (47.8 vs. 37.0), and yet Houston finds itself in a 3-1 hole.
Interestingly, despite being out-rebounded, Golden State (15.5) is still generating more second-chance points than Houston (13.3).
The Rockets' lack of execution has cost them dearly in this series, leading to my reluctance in backing them as 4.5-point favorites in a must-win game.
Houston's lone victory (109-94) in the series came in Game 2, when Butler played only eight minutes before suffering a pelvic injury in the first quarter. So, one would naturally expect the Warriors to struggle to adjust without the services of such a key player.
In Game 3, however, the Rockets failed to capitalize on their advantage as the shorthanded Warriors outscored them 35-22 in the fourth quarter en route to a 104-93 victory.
In the playoffs, you need your best players to outperform their numbers during the regular season, and right now, Houston's Alperen Sengun is the only Rockets player who has answered the bell. The Rockets' center is averaging 22.3 points and 11.5 assists during the playoffs, compared to 19.1 points and 10.3 rebounds in the regular season.
Houston's shooting guard Jalen Green has had the biggest dropoff, averaging just 15.5 points in this series after leading his team with 21.0 points over the 82-game campaign.
In comparison, the Warriors' superstars, such as Butler (17.9 to 18.3) and Stephen Curry (24.5 to 26.0), have all increased their scoring averages during this postseason.
Playoff basketball is often about executing your half-court offense, and to succeed, you need to have star players who can rise to the occasion.
Warriors vs Rockets Game 5 Best Bet
- Warriors +4 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets Parlay Picks for Wednesday
Although playoff rotations can always be a bit tricky, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has a tendency to utilize as much of his squad as possible. The Warriors' bench ranked second in regular season minutes (20.2) and Moses Moody has proven to be a reliable player when called upon.
Moody has started two of four games for the Warriors in this series after starting 34 of 74 games in the regular season. Therefore, Kerr has no reservations about putting the Arkansas product right into the fray.
While there is a bit of unpredictability surrounding how Kerr will choose to deploy Moody, I would argue that it is more likely that he will continue to receive a decent amount of playing time.
Moody has an assists prop of 0.5, a number he has cleared in 11 of his last 12 away games. Moreover, he has covered this line in nine of 11 meetings against the Rockets. This season, he's also covering this line at a 72% clip (57 of 79).
The Warriors pride themselves on ball movement, and even if Moody receives limited playing time, he should have a few opportunities to make a difference and find an open man.
While I understand the bookmakers are unlikely to set his assists line at 1.5, we're getting favorable odds with the juice priced at 0.5 (-140). Combining this prop with the Warriors at +4.5 would boost our odds to +180 on a same game parlay.
- Moses Moody Over 0.5 Assists
- Warriors +4
Parlay Payout: +190
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