The Pacific Division takes center stage at the Intuit Dome tonight, as the Golden State Warriors (37-45) visit the Los Angeles Clippers (42-40) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Clippers enter tonight's game as 5.5-point home favorites (LAC -5.5), with the game total stationed at 220.5 points. Los Angeles is a -215 favorite on the moneyline, while Golden State is +176 to pull off the road upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Clippers predictions and NBA picks for tonight's play-in game.
Warriors vs Clippers Predictions
- Warriors vs Clippers pick: Warriors Team Total Under 108.5 (-110)
My Clippers vs. Warriors best bet is Golden State to stay under its team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Warriors vs Clippers Odds for NBA Play-In Game
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 220.5 -112o / -108u | +176 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 220.5 -112o / -108u | -215 |
Current odds: WAR 34% · CLI 67% · NBA
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Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers NBA Preview
When I dive into this matchup, the biggest question on my mind—and the one I keep circling back to is simple: Who is actually going to help Stephen Curry in this game?
When you look at the data, the discrepancy between the Warriors' offense when Steph is on the floor versus when he sits is nothing short of alarming.
Over the course of about 1,200 minutes this season with Curry on the floor, Golden State's offense is elite, operating at a 120.2 offensive rating per 100 possessions — but when you look at the nearly 2,300 minutes he has been off the floor, that number craters to 111.0.
To put that in perspective, an offensive rating of 111.0 would rank 27th in the NBA. That is basement-level stuff — just slightly ahead of teams like the Bucks.
When Curry isn't out there creating gravity and making the engine run, this Golden State offense is a complete disaster, quite frankly.
The factor that really solidifies this team total play for me is that Steve Kerr confirmed that Curry is still on a minutes restriction. In the four games since he returned from injury, he hasn’t logged more than 29 minutes in any single contest.
We are talking about a must-win, season-on-the-line game, and the Warriors' coaching staff is publicly stating that their only consistent source of offense is on a pitch count. I honestly don't know why they would announce that to the world before tipoff.
The idea of Curry being limited should give the Clippers an immediate mental boost. It gives defenders that extra bit of energy to fight over one more screen, knowing that they only have to survive against Steph for about 30 minutes before the Warriors’ offense falls off a cliff.
That leads me to the next problem: the Warriors' lack of secondary scoring. If Steph is limited, who is picking up the slack?
I have a hard time believing we can count on Brandin Podziemski to go out there and fill it up in a high-pressure environment like this. I don't see Gui Santos or Gary Payton II suddenly transforming into primary scoring options on the road.
Even Kristaps Porziņģis, who joined this Warriors squad to be that secondary rim-protector and floor-spacer, hasn't shown enough lately to warrant a 19.5 or 20-point projection. He hasn't been asked to carry a heavy scoring load in weeks, and I’m still a bit scarred by what we saw from him in past playoff runs.
On the other side of the script, the Clippers have a much more sturdy secondary option to help Kawhi Leonard — with Darius Garland fitting in seamlessly as LAC's starting point guard.
When you compare the Clippers' offensive hierarchy to what Golden State is working with, it’s a night-and-day difference.
Warriors vs Clippers Picks, Analysis
The Clippers have a stable of defenders that are absolute nightmares to deal with. Between Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Leonard, they have real length and athleticism on the wings.
If Kawhi decides to lock in defensively for even a few possessions—which he almost certainly will in a Play-In scenario—he’s going to make life miserable for whoever the Warriors try to run their sets through.
I just don’t know where the offense comes from for Golden State tonight. The Warriors have a superstar on a minutes restriction, a roster of role players being asked to do too much, and a Clippers defense that is tailor-made to disrupt what the Warriors like to do.
Draymond Green is going to do his thing defensively, but he isn't going to give you 20 points. Without a consistent second option, and with Steph capped at under 30 minutes, I’m taking the Under on their team total.
I don’t see the Warriors finding enough rhythm on the road to clear 108.5 in this spot.
Warriors vs Clippers Best Bet
- Warriors Team Total Under 108.5 (-110)
