The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will face off in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Knicks are -4.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 222 total points. New York is a -180 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +150 to pull off the upset.
Break out the baggy jeans and cue up “All Eyez On Me” because we’re going back to the 90s with this series. Will Tyrese Haliburton cement his place among New York's greatest villains? Or will Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns propel the Knicks back to the Finals for the first time in 25 years?
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, May 21.
Pacers vs Knicks Prediction for Eastern Conference Finals Game 1
My Pacers vs. Knicks Game 1 best bet is split between Indiana to cover the spread and Indiana moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best lines using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers +4.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+150)
Pacers vs Knicks Odds, Picks for Wednesday, May 21
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 222 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 222 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Pacers vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -4.5
- Pacers vs. Knicks over/under: 222 total points
- Pacers vs. Knicks moneyline: Pacers +150, Knicks -180
- Pacers vs. Knicks best bet: Pacers +4.5 / Pacers ML
Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 Preview
A classic rivalry is renewed in this year's Eastern Conference Finals, as the Pacers and Knicks, two franchises with a long history meet with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line.
The Pacers sent New York home last season after the Knicks were hit with a flurry of injuries. The Knicks are back and better this year though. But so is Indiana, who tore through the top seed in the conference to get here.
I’m tied to the Pacers in this spot. I am not overly enthusiastic about this play, and the more research I’ve done, the closer I’ve gotten to New York, but I simply can’t abide by the number.
In the regular season, the Pacers…
- had a better halfcourt offense than the Knicks.
- had a better halfcourt defense than the Knicks.
- had a better eFG% than the Knicks.
- had a better turnover rate than the Knicks.
- allowed a lower eFG% than the Knicks.
- allowed fewer offensive rebounds than the Knicks.
In the playoffs, the Pacers…
- have a better halfcourt offense than the Knicks.
- have a better eFG% than the Knicks.
- have a lower turnover rate than the Knicks.
- have a better free throw rate than the Knicks.
- have allowed a lower eFG% than the Knicks.
- have allowed a lower expected eFG% than the Knicks.
For all these reasons and more, I make the spread for tonight's series opener Knicks -0.7. Now, that’s with a standard two points of homecourt advantage.
You can legitimately argue that the Knicks should receive a few more points at home, considering how great the MSG crowd is going to be for this series. They will be bonkers. Ben Stiller might pop a blood vessel in his eyeball.
However, the Pacers have been absolutely electric in every playoff game outside of a pair of Game 3s and a Game 5. You touch them and you’re fried.
The best player in this series is Jalen Brunson. The most impactful player in this series with how he shapes the game is Tyrese Haliburton.
The best coach in this series is Rick Carlisle. The best forward in this series is Pascal Siakam. Indiana has the best bench in this series.
The Pacers take more three-pointers than New York, especially in these playoffs. They generate better looks.
The Knicks’ strength has been their defense, but Indiana actually has a better profile given who they played and how those games turned out for being the better defense.
Pacers vs Knicks Betting Predictions for Game 1
Pacers +4.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+150)
Now, there are lots of matchups I like New York in.
Andrew Nembhard has been cooked with all the spices by Jalen Brunson, meaning the Pacers will have to put Aaron Nesmith on him, which causes a chain reaction that puts Tyrese Haliburton in harder places to hide defensively.
Myles Turner has to stay out of foul trouble against Karl-Anthony Towns and in pick-and-roll when defending Brunson.
OG Anunoby should be able to force switches using forward-guard screens to get smaller defenders on him and attack.
Miles McBride should have a great series off the bench, maybe better than any Pacers player.
However, Indiana’s tempo and ability to get the Knicks out of their comfort zone could be huge. So, I’m going to grab the points and play Indiana to win Game 1 tonight.
Under 222 (-110)
This total has swollen up to 222 for Game 1 tonight.
The line movement makes sense on the surface. The Knicks and Pacers are both offensive teams. Except, the Knicks have been a defensive team in the playoffs and Indiana is not what it looks like.
The Pacers feel like they play fast. But New York actually averages more transition possessions per game in the playoffs than Indy.
Indiana is actually top-two in shots coming with four to seven seconds left on the clock (considered “late” by NBA.com).
The Pacers get into their sets quickly and attack you early in the clock after makes so the defense never feels comfortable.
Both teams have actually defended at a high level in these playoffs.
The offensive rebounds and turnovers might push this over the number, but I make the total for tonight's game 218 based on regular season and playoff figures, and I think the market has moved too far.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (+130)
Bridges has gone over this line in eight straight matchups against the Pacers.
He acts as primary creator in the non-Brunson minutes and will have good size matchups to force help and kick, plus transition assist chances off steals.
Josh Hart to Record a Double-Double (+150)
Hart averages the most points off cuts for the Knicks per Synergy Sports.
The Pacers allow the most points off cuts of any remaining team in the postseason.
Hart is a monster rebounder, and the Pacers have a huge issue with allowing boards on the offensive glass.
Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (-105)
The Pacers are foul-prone, and Brunson tends to punish those teams by getting to the line.
These plays are all Knicks props, which go against my side and total cap, but I’m hoping for a tight 112-108 win for Indiana with Brunson scoring the majority of New York's points alongside plenty of Hart rebounds.
Pacers vs Knicks Game 1 Best Bets
- Pacers +4.5 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+150)
- Under 222 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (+130)
- Josh Hart to Record a Double-Double (+150)
- Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (-105)
Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Trends
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