The last two NBA champions meet in a nationally televised showdown between contenders today, as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (39-21) take on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics (42-18) in an Sunday matinee. Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Celtics are 3.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Celtics -3.5), with the over/under set at 233.5 total points. Boston is a -162 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +136 to pull off the upset.
Can the Nuggets buck the trends to take a win on the road in an especially early start? Or will Boston right the ship after back-to-back losses this week? Let's get to my Nuggets vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 2.
Nuggets vs Celtics Prediction
Spread
The Celtics are 5-5 ATS this season without Jaylen Brown. When missing one of Brown, Holiday, or Porzingis, Boston is 26-10 SU but just 15-21 ATS. We’re inside of a possession here, so I think taking the spread is fine, but when the Celtics do win without one of those three, they cover the spread by 5.4 points on average.
So I would only look toward alt spread plays of -4.5 and -6.5 here.
Over/Under
The over is 54.8% to the over on the road, the over is 55.2% in Celtics home games.
Instead of playing the combined over, I think there’s value on the Celtics team total over at 119.5, playable to 120.5. Denver’s defense struggles to contain three-point attempts and over-rotates, which will lead to open 3-pointers for the best 3-point team in the league.
Moneyline
My Celtics vs. Nuggets best bet is on Boston moneyline, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Celtics Moneyline (-150)
Nuggets vs Celtics Odds, Lines, Picks
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 233.5 -110 / -110 | +136 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 233.5 -110 / -110 | -162 |
- Nuggets vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -3.5
- Nuggets vs. Celtics over/under: 233.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Celtics moneyline: Nuggets +136, Celtics -162
- Nuggets vs. Celtics best bet: Celtics ML (-150)
Nuggets vs Celtics NBA Sunday Preview
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Nuggets had won three in a row vs. Boston, including both matchups last season during the Celtics’ dominant run to the title, before losing at home without Nikola Jokic earlier this season. They’ve shown to be a matchup problem for the Celtics, thanks to Jokic’s ability to exploit their interior defense.
Boston is 12th in points in the paint allowed per 100 possessions. They’re above league average, but they were 7th in that category last season, and their overall defense was much better.
Boston’s overall scheme is pretty simple: deny spot-up threes, let pick-and-roll ball-handlers score. They give up the second-worst points-per-possession mark defending pick-and-roll scorers but the 14th-best mark against pass-outs and 16th best for all pick and rolls including passes.
Denver is the 10th best in pick-and-roll offense. Jamal Murray has been on a tear, and if he has a huge game, that shifts the game in Denver’s direction dramatically.
Nikola Jokic is 5-3 straight up and ATS in the last seven seasons when facing Kristaps Porzingis heads up. It’s not a good matchup for Porzingis but in fairness, it’s not a good matchup for anyone. Porzingis is doubtful for this matchup, however.
Denver’s ability to post-up and force help can get Boston in rotation, which isn’t what they want to do. With Porzingis, the Celtics run a lot more drop defense, which opens up the pocket pass to Jokic for floaters.
The Nuggets present a contrasting style that can flummox the Celtics, and Boston’s overall performance at home has been poor this season (11-18 ATS).
- Boston is 6-14 (30%) ATS against teams over .500 in ATS record this season (Denver is 31-28 ATS this season).
- Boston is 3-9 ATS this season against teams over. 500.
- Denver is 28-22 (56%) ATS this season when they face an opponent that allows fewer free throws than they generate. The idea is that Denver specifically makes an advantage (low free throw rate allowed) into a weakness with their ability to get to the line.
- Boston is 19-26 ATS, (42%) against teams that make fewer threes than Boston but average more fast break points (Denver takes way fewer threes and is one of the best in the league in fast break points).
Boston Celtics Betting Preview
First, the Celtics might be short-handed for this, with Jaylen Brown questionable and Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis both doubtful.
Boston is elite in transition defensively and the second-best in the league per possession. They do a great job of stopping the ball and protecting against easy buckets, which Denver relies on to get scoring out of Christian Bruan and others.
Boston’s bench, which utilizes a heavy mixing of starter minutes to mask deficiencies like Payton Pritchard defensively and Nemias Queta offensively, will slice and dice Denver in the non-Jokic minutes. The Nuggets have found a few things that work this season, like some surprisingly good minutes from DeAndre Jordan and the emergence of Zeke Nnaji off the bench.
(Nnaji will start if Aaron Gordon can’t go.)
If the Celtics get Jokic in anything close to foul trouble, it’s going to complicate what will need to be a 40-plus minute effort from the 3-time MVP.
But the biggest edge here is Boston’s primary advantage: three-point rate.
Denver is:
- 22-16 SU, 16-22 (42%) ATS when the opponent makes more threes overall
- 14-13 SU, 12-15 ATS when the opponent makes two or more threes than Denver does
- 9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS when the opponent makes five or more threes than Denver does
- 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when the opponent makes six or more threes than Denver does
- 1-6 SU, 0-7 when the opponent makes eight or more threes than Denver does
The Celtics average 5.2 more than their opponent per game this season.
If Boston allows the pick-and-roll ball-handler to score while limiting kick-out spot-up opportuntiies, Denver is the opposite.
Denver gives up the 10th-most catch-and-shoot opportunities per game in the NBA. The Celtics score the 2nd-most points per game on those shots.
Most of the problem comes from Denver’s inability to help and recover or stay home at all. They have problems in the paint stemming from their pick-and-roll coverage,which plays at the level of the screen with Jokic. To do that effectively, you have to either disrupt the pass, prevent the pass and force a reset, or rotate effectively underneath to prevent cuts.
Denver has worked to do that, and the result has been fewer points in the paint allowed but more kick-outs afterward. This all plays into Boston’s hands.
- The Celtics are a sterling 15-2 SU, 13-4 ATS coming off a loss this season. Under Joe Mazzulla, they are 45-15 SU (75%) and 35-24 (59%) ATS off a loss in the regular season.
- Denver is 8-9 SU, 6-11 ATS against teams that are top-10 in points off catch-and-shoot opportunities this season.
- Denver has struggled to beat good teams this season. They are:
- 11-9 SU, 9-10-1 ATS against teams above 55% win percentage
- 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS against teams with a win percentage above 60 percent
- 1-3 SU and ATS against teams with a win percentage above 70 percent (Boston is .700 going into this game)
Nuggets vs Celtics Best Bets
I make this game a pick‘em, due to a huge downgrade on Boston’s homecourt advantage. They’ve just not been very good at home this season, even compared to other teams against the spread.
However, when Boston wins the game at home, they are +5.6 in ATS margin and win by double-digits. The Celtics have six wins against teams over .500 at home this season and the average ATS margin was +4. (Notably, they are just 3-3 ATS in those games.)
Just go with me for a second.
Let’s pretend that because the Celtics — so dominant the last three seasons off a loss— are coming off the loss to Cleveland (and Detroit before that) so the homecourt advantage should be average at worst. I make that line Celtics -4.7 which seems a lot closer to where this should be.
Even factoring the injuries to Brown, Porzingis, and Holiday, the latter two have been slight negatives over the last month of play in on-court net rating. Brown is a bigger deal, but Boston’s tough to beat because of their scheme.
As a result, I make this -200. I think that line is more accurate of the spot.
When factoring the early start for Denver, Denver’s history against top teams this season, Boston off a loss, and the matchup problems created for Denver on both sides of the ball, my best bet is Celtics -134 ML at FanDuel, and I think it’s good to -150.
Celtics vs. Nuggets Best Bet
- Celtics Moneyline (-150)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Derrick White 3+ Three-Pointers Made
- Nikola Jokic 25+ Points
- Over 233.5
- Celtics ML
Parlay Payout: +420
Jokic has averaged 29.5 points per game vs. Boston over the last five seasons. So we’ll add Jokic 25+ points -160 against a pretty soft underbelly for Boston, especially if Porzingis is out.
Derrick White should generate those open threes off too much help from Denver and between the two, that should help with an over. That comes out to +460 at DraftKings, and that’s our Same Game Parlay.
Celtics vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
