The Denver Nuggets (11-8) and Cleveland Cavaliers (19-3) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Cavaliers are 4.5-points favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Cavs -4.5), with the over/under set at 233.5 total points. Cleveland is a -180 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Denver is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, December 5.
Nuggets vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks
Spread
The Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA against the spread this season at 16-6 this season ATS, though they're 19-3 straight up. At home, they're 10-3, only outdone by the Magic and — surprisingly — the Raptors.
Denver is only 4-5 on the road and hasn't played nearly as well throughout the season. I lean towards the Cavs, but I haven't bet it or logged it in the app.
Moneyline
I think if you like Denver, considering they're in that +3.5 to +4.5 range, you should also hit them on the moneyline at a lesser play. Whenever I'm taking a team to cover that close of a spread in basketball, I'd also think they could win the game. To me, I'm leaning Cavs right now as I write this, so I'm not taking Denver, and the ML for Cleveland has too much negative juice.
Over/Under
The total is fairly high at 236, but justifiable when observing the match-ups. I'll note that Cleveland has played to the over in 13 of 22 this season, and Denver in 12 of 19. It's 8-of-13 for Cleveland at home and 5-of-9 for Denver on the road. No play for me here, though.
This suddenly becoming a defensive matchup wouldn't shock me. I'd assume some of the main characters could get going, but it's worth noting that the totals landed at 230 and 231 when these two teams faced off last season. And this time around, the teams are very similar in terms of roster construction. No play for me here.
My Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Points & Rebounds, Aaron Gordon Over 8.5 Rebounds & Assists
Nuggets vs Cavaliers Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 233.5 -110 / -110 | +150 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 233.5 -110 / -110 | -180 |
- Nuggets vs Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -4.5
- Nuggets vs Cavaliers over/under: 233.5 points
- Nuggets vs Cavaliers moneyline: Cavaliers -180, Nuggets +150
- Nuggets vs Cavaliers best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Points & Rebounds
Nuggets vs Cavaliers NBA Preview
There are two props here I'm playing. We'll start with Michael Porter Jr. over 21.5 points + rebounds. MPJ has quietly been on a tear lately, averaging 20 and 8 in his last seven while shooting 56 percent from the field and 42 percent from three during that stretch.
In general, he's at about 19 and 7 on 51/41 shooting. He's weirdly only 65 percent on free throws, way under a career efficiency slightly above 79 percent, but we're expecting an uptick there. He has gotten over 21.5 points + rebounds in 16 of 19 games.
So why is this number here? Aaron Gordon is back. But even so, MPJ has cleared 21.5 pts + rebs in seven of nine games Gordon has played in. I'm good with playing this at 22.5.
Speaking of Gordon, I like him over 8.5 rebounds + assists. Another number I think is too low, and I'd be good playing it up to 9.5. Gordon in five of nine games, but this includes one where he was injured in the first quarter, and the other was his return effort, where he was limited to 23 minutes.
Nuggets vs Cavaliers Best Bets
In totality, Denver will need MPJ and AG to help Nikola Jokic crash the boards against the Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen frontcourt. And with MPJ's offense and Gordon's playmaking, this isn't a straight rebounding play for me.
Denver will need Gordon to make the extra pass and shoot over the top of this Cleveland defense, and MPJ is obviously one of those shooters, who has been in a great rhythm this year.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Best Bets
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
- Aaron Gordon Over 8.5 Rebounds & Assists (-135)
Same Game Parlay Payout: (+239, DraftKings)
