The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will meet in Game 1 of the NBA Finals this Wednesday. Tipoff from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on ABC.
The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites over the Knicks in Game 1 tonight, with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. San Antonio is a -180 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is priced as a +152 underdog to pull off the road upset.
The excitement level could not be any higher for this series. The big-market, bad-luck Knicks take on a dynastic empire reborn under a new extraterrestrial scion. Let's get to my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA Finals Game 1 picks for Wednesday, June 3.
Knicks vs Spurs Prediction for NBA Finals Game 1
- Knicks vs Spurs picks: Spurs -4.5 (-115), Over 217.5 (-105) + 4 Player Props
My Spurs vs. Knicks Game 1 best bets are on San Antonio to cover the spread, the total to go over 217.5 points, and four player props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals Game 1 Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 217.5 -105o / -115u | +152 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 217.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
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New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs NBA Finals Game 1 Preview
You Should Be Terrified of Victor Wembanyama
If the Spurs win this series, San Antonio returns to what has felt like its rightful place at the top of the mountain for the last quarter-of-a-century or so.
What is truly terrifying for the rest of the league, though, is that the NBA is close to being conquered by a 22-year-old who still has not scratched the core of what he’s capable of achieving with more training, strength, and experience.
If Victor Wembanyama can be the best player in the world and an NBA champion this early in his development, what does that mean for the rest of his career as he inevitably improves, provided he can stay healthy (knock on wood)?
We have to legitimately ask if this is the start of the greatest NBA career of all time. It seems like an insane question to pose when the current holder of that crown is still actively playing.
You can successfully argue Michael Jordan was a greater player at his peak, but he simply can’t match LeBron James’ longevity, records, and Finals appearances across time.
Knicks Still Fighting Historical Demons
If the Knicks win, they deliver the championship their fans have been dreaming of for most of their adult lives.
Hoisting the trophy would finally close the wounds of the Ewing-era losses to Olajuwon and the Rockets, the structural failures of the Carmelo Anthony era, and whatever it was Stephon Marbury was doing for a while.
An NBA title would heal the scars of the Trae Young series, getting choked out by Tyrese Haliburton, and the agonizing years of failing to draw premier free agents to Madison Square Garden.
There's a ton at stake for New York in this series, so let’s add to the drama by putting some money on the board with these legacies.
Knicks vs Spurs Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 1
Spurs -4.5 (-115)
I’m trying to follow trends less, especially in these playoffs. Home-court value is down globally, teams are winning immediately off grueling Game 7s, and upsets have been heavily in vogue.
But, there’s a specific historic trend for this spot that I simply cannot ignore: When the home team in Game 1 has a better point differential on the season than their opponent, they are 17-2 SU and 16-3 (84%) ATS.
The better overall team usually wins Game 1, period. The best indicator of team strength is not record; you can win some games with luck variance. But point differential almost always gives you a clearer view of the difference in teams.
Then, there’s something that’s been bugging me here, and it’s the line itself. I fundamentally cannot get to this number.
Home-court advantage in the playoffs is worth roughly 3.5 points. If you take the spread in Game 2 of these playoffs and the spread of Game 3, and assume no major public power rating adjustments, the average switch is 3.5 points. It’s been roughly that same baseline across the last five seasons.
So based on that math, the market is telling us the Spurs would only be 1-point favorites on a neutral court against the Knicks? The Spurs, who won nine more games than New York and finished with a +1.9 schedule-adjusted point differential, are only a single point better in a neutral setting?
My raw modeling numbers make this spread Spurs -8.6, which is admittedly nonsense because the competitive gap between these two teams is not that wide. But let’s shorten it by two points to -6.6 and then give the Knicks a full two-point upgrade for how they completely dominated the Eastern Conference playoff bracket.
That gets us to -4.6. However, the Spurs also just eliminated the defending champion Thunder, who possessed the best SRS in the league and the 6th-best point differential of all time. That is worth at least a one-point upgrade, bringing us to a minimum of Spurs -5.6.
I just can’t see any logical way that -4.5 should be the number. San Antonio is at home, and it takes opponents a while to adjust to playing against Wembanyama's unique length.
The Knicks are not in Kansas anymore—or Ohio, for that matter. This is a serious Spurs team who intends to win, and in Game 1, I think they win and cover, despite the fact that I ultimately like New York to take the series.
Over 217.5 (-105)
I love the over in this spot. The Spurs and Knicks both heavily design their offenses to generate open, catch-and-shoot looks from beyond the arc, and conversely, both teams surrender plenty of them as a direct result of how they scheme defensively.
The Knicks will place their focus on hunting efficient perimeter shooting and getting quality looks out of their high pick-and-roll actions. The Spurs will look to run at every opportunity, getting out in semi-transition for quick-strike triples.
San Antonio enters the round ranked first in transition three-point attempts and third in overall make percentage during these playoffs.
The Spurs-Thunder series consistently sailed over the total despite Oklahoma City's limited offensive floor and elite defensive metrics.
Now that San Antonio is matched up against New York, it will be significantly easier for the Spurs to score, but much harder for them to consistently get stops.
Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring opening salvo to the Finals.
Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
This is a fun situational look based directly on how the Knicks script their early offensive attacks.
New York loves to run a specific set right out of the gate: they trigger an off-ball screen to get Brunson the rock, and then immediately have Karl-Anthony Towns flow into a ghost-screen for a quick pick-and-pop three-point attempt.
We also see them do it early on fast breaks where Towns acts as the trailing big; the defense naturally sprints back to protect the rim, completely forgets about him at the top of the key, and he steps right into an open look.
I am backing Towns to hit the first three-pointer of the game at +1000 (BetMGM). Or, if you want to give yourself some structural leeway, head over to FanDuel and grab Towns to record a three-pointer within the first three minutes of the game at +490.
Head-to-Head Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+265)
I'll admit, I was originally a bit skeptical of the Josh Hart assists angle, assuming the corner spacing wouldn't be there. But looking closer at the film, the matchup mechanics are beautiful.
Even if the Spurs try to play ghost-coverage and hide Wembanyama on Hart, the Knicks are going to drag Hart up to set guard-wing screens for Jalen Brunson.
Wembanyama isn't going to step out 35 feet to play at the level; he’s going to drop and plant himself a foot behind the three-point line.
That high screening alignment creates a huge pocket for Brunson to hit Hart on the short-roll.
Once Hart gets downhill past Wemby, the low man is forced to help over, leaving Hart in a perfect position to dish out easy dimes to the weak side.
With Stephon Castle's playmaking likely deferring to De'Aaron Fox, getting Hart at this juicy +268 price tag should be a bargain.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-115)
This matchup features two teams that are much better equipped to score on one another than they are to get consistent stops.
I don't love how San Antonio's perimeter defense is going to be challenged by the Knicks' wing ball handlers, and Mikal Bridges is poised to exploit that structural bottleneck.
Looking back at the regular-season data, Bridges absolutely torched the Spurs, averaging 19.0 points per game across their two meetings while shooting a blistering 58% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc.
He was dynamic operating out of half-court sets, generating 24 points on just 22 pick-and-roll possessions against San Antonio this year.
Bridges has been cutting relentlessly lately and getting to his spots in the mid-range with comfort.
The Spurs are going to have to pick their poison, and Bridges will likely be a beneficiary of that.
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115)
The tracking data from the regular-season series tells you everything you need to know: Julian Champagnie registered a whopping 33 catch-and-shoot opportunities against the Knicks.
That is the highest volume of any player on either roster in this matchup.
San Antonio dramatically evolved as the year progressed, leaning heavily into their identity as a spot-up team and showing immense trust in their perimeter targets.
The Knicks' defensive geometry naturally surrenders looks from the perimeter, meaning those corner threes are going to be consistently present for Champagnie.
If you want a creative way to play this angle, DraftKings has a combo prop pairing Champagnie and Brunson over 4.5 combined threes at a reasonable -121 price tag.
Champagnie should be able to get to his spots all night long.
Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals Game 1 Picks
- Spurs -4.5 (-115)
- Over 217.5 (-105)
- Karl-Anthony Towns First Three-Pointer Scored (+1000)
- H2H Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+265)
- Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-115)
- Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115)
