The Pistons and Thunder recently squared off in Detroit, as the Pistons notched a victory with the Thunder shorthanded.
Today, both squads are heavy favorites on their respective home floor. The Pistons are 23-7 at home, while the Thunder are 25-6.
Will the top seeds in both conferences cruise to easy victories at home today? Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Saturday, March 7.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Saturday
Nets vs Pistons Parlay Preview
The Angle: Pistons Bounce Back Against Tanking Nets
The Pistons just went through one of their toughest stretches of the season and went 8-3, largely without their top rim protector in Isaiah Stewart. However, consecutive losses to close that stretch to the Cavaliers and Spurs has some people questioning their legitimacy as the No. 1 seed.
While their lack of shooting may pose problems at some point this spring, it has not been an issue against the Nets
The Pistons have won six of the last eight meetings against the Nets and covered in all eight games. They have won the last five by 14 points or more, taking the first two meetings this season by scores of 125-107 in Brooklyn and 130-77 in Detroit.
In the last matchup, the Pistons were 14-point favorites just like they are tonight.
Meanwhile, the Nets can be a feisty opponent with Jordi Fernandez's coaching acumen. However, he currently does not have a lot of tools in his arsenal right now.
The team heads to Detroit on a 10-game losing streak, with just one cover in that span. Six of those losses have been by 16 points or more.
As a result of their losing streak, the Nets now have the third-worst record in the league, which means they would pick no lower than 7th in this loaded NBA Draft. They are 1.5 games better than the Kings, who hold the worst-record entering today's action.
Facing Detroit in two of their next games, the Pistons may just oblige as the Nets continue to plummet to the bottom.
The Pistons face the Heat in Miami tomorrow night. So, that means Detroit has incentive to put this game away early to give its starters some rest.
Pick: Pistons -14
Jalen Duren 20+ Points
Two of the Pistons' last three losses have come to the Spurs.
In the first meeting, Jalen Duren won the battle with Victor Wembanyama statistically as he had 25 points and 14 rebounds. However in San Antonio, foul trouble got him early as he was limited to 12 minutes because of five fouls.
I expect a better outing from tonight considering his recent form.
In five of his last six games, Duren has had 25 points and 13 rebounds. He has recorded a double-double in seven of his last 10 games, while averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds.
He has also scored 18 points or more in each of his last three games against the Nets, with 30 and 21 in two games against Brooklyn this season.
The Nets are 23rd in points allowed to centers this season. They have allowed a center to score 20 points in each of their last four games (Nikola Vucevic, Jarrett Allen and Bam Adebayo).
If Cunningham is more of a passer tonight, expect his buddy Duren to be on the receiving end of his assists.
Pick: Jalen Duren 20+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Cunningham Under Points / Over Assists
Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points
When the Pistons are successful offensively, Cade Cunningham has a lot to do with it.
Despite a roster largely devoid of three-point shooting or a secondary creator, the Pistons have a 120.5 offensive rating with Cunningham on the floor and 111.3 offensive rating when he sits.
It is one of the reasons Cunningham is on the shortlist of MVP candidates this season.
However, Cunningham has averaged 21.8 points over his past seven games, scoring 27 points or less in five of them.
Additionally, in the Pistons' five consecutive double-digit victories over the Nets, Cunningham has scored 20 points or more just once.
The Nets allow the second-fewest points to point guards.
Instead, Cunningham has nine assists in each of the last three meetings with 10 and 12 assists in the last two.
Cunningham is questionable tonight with a left quadriceps contusion.
Should he play tonight, with the Pistons having a game tomorrow, head coach JB Bickerstaff will want to get his star out early.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+425)
- Pistons -13.5
- Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points
- Jalen Duren 20+ Points
Compounding Angle (+900)
- Pistons -19.5
- Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points
- Cade Cunningham 10+ Assists
- Jalen Duren 20+ Points
While Duren and Cunningham may not play the fourth quarter tonight, all four legs hit in the last meeting with Duren playing 24 minutes and Cunningham playing 26 minutes.
Warriors vs Thunder Parlay Preview
The Angle: Thunder Dominate at Home Again
Thunder -14.5
Unlike the Nets, the Warriors are not tanking; their offense just looks like it when Stephen Curry is not on the floor.
The Warriors are 9-14 without him this season, and their offensive rating drops from 120.2 with him to 112.4 without him on the floor.
The Warriors did pull off an upset over the inconsistent Rockets on Thursday, but the task is much more difficult tonight.
The Thunder have won 33 of their 49 games by double-digits this season. They have defeated the Warriors three times by an average margin of 24.3 points this season. They won by 24 points in the first meeting, 126-102, in Oklahoma City.
While dominant regular season wins have become something of a trademark over the last few years, they turn it up a notch at home.
The Thunder have a 104.6 defensive rating and +11.9 net rating at home, leading the NBA in both categories.
In addition to Curry's absence, the Warriors will be without Moses Moody tonight and possibly De'Anthony Melton, two of their most consistent scorers without both Curry and Jimmy Butler.
While I like the Thunder regardless, a short-handed Warriors offense is going to struggle in this matchup, which should allow the Thunder to win comfortably.
Pick: Thunder -14.5
The Correlated SGP: Back SGA & Holmgren
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
One of the most fascinating things to me is how, despite all of the Thunder's blowout wins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still finds a way to get his number almost every time.
The reigning MVP is on the cusp of history, having scored 20 points in 124 consecutive games, two shy of Wilt Chamberlain's record. In many of those games, SGA scores 30 points.
In some ways, it is a race against the clock for him, as he typically does not play the fourth quarter when his team wins by or margin.
Yet, SGA has averaged 30 points per game in each of the last four seasons. This year, he is at 31.7 per game and is second in the league behind Luka Doncic.
He has scored 30 points in 36 of 52 games this season and in 23 of 30 games when he has 30 points and the Thunder win by 10 or more points.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also scored 30 points in six of his last eight games against the Warriors, averaging 35.5 points per game in that span.
I like his chances of getting there again tonight.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points & Rebounds
Even while SGA was out for some games, Chet Holmgren went under 20 points for 13 straight games. He had a good matchup against the Mavericks last Sunday and scored 19 points before finally cracking 20 points with 28 against the Knicks on Wednesday.
However, he usually excels against the Warriors.
Over the past eight meetings, Holmgren is averaging 19.2 points and 9.1 assists.
That makes sense, as the Warriors have played small lineups for many years. They finally made a move for an impact 7-footer at the trade deadline, but Kristaps Porzingis has played just 17 minutes for them and is questionable tonight.
Holmgren has recorded a double-double in four of his past eight games against the Warriors. He has recorded 28 PR or more in six of those games.
If he and Gilgeous-Alexander continue their typical dominance of the Warriors, the Thunder should win handily again.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points & Rebounds
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+480)
- Thunder -14.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points & Rebounds
Compounding Angle (+800)
- Thunder -23.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points & Rebounds
