The NBA Cup is back with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of 8 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for six of tonight's contests, including bets for Celtics vs 76ers, Nuggets vs Trail Blazers, and Hawks vs Pacers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, October 31.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, October 31
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Hawks vs. Pacers
Their injury report is a horror movie on Halloween. It’s a disaster. No Haliburton. No Nembhard. No McConnell. No Mathurin. I get it.
But this is a desperation spot at home against a Hawks team that has been terrible without Trae Young (who’s out for a while with an MRI pending).
The best player in this game is Pascal Siakam.
The Pacers’ style is consistent and they’ve been competitive in every game. This is the one where they get the win.
Pick: Pacers ML
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Celtics vs. 76ers
I grabbed this at Sixers-2.5, but it’s moved against me.
That makes sense, the Celtics are a little underrated by the market and this is a sell-high spot on a Sixers team that keeps pulling off upsets.
But this is also a letdown spot for the Celtics.
The Celtics bombed from 3-point range in their win over the Cavaliers, as they are wont to do.
But with the Celtics being a mortal team this year instead of 3-point gods, this trend stands out: Home favorites facing opponents after the opponent made 20 or more 3s in a game are 120-73-3 ATS (63%) since 2014-15.
The Sixers will not keep up their exhilarating comeback ways forever, but I think the good times continue through one more game here at home.
Joel Embiid winning his minutes and looking good in his last appearance doesn’t hurt when he’s up against a weak Boston front line, either.
Pick: 76ers -1.5
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Raptors vs. Cavaliers
This number has skyrocketed since we gave it out on Buckets Thursday night at 236.5, and for good reason.
The Raptors have the 2nd worst defense in the NBA, or as I like to call it, “the worst defense among NBA teams which excludes the Nets.”
Toronto is trying to play at a breakneck pace and aggressive, high-pressure defense without good defenders in their starting unit, and getting obliterated.
Everyone is of the belief they need to scale it back, but a coach usually wants to give something at least 10 games to try before just abandoning ship.
They couldn’t slow down the Rockets, who don’t have a point guard. The Cavaliers have one in the form of Donovan Mitchell if he plays (questionable for Friday night).
If Mitchell doesn’t play, yes, that throws a significant wrench in the plan, but the Cavaliers still have better ball-handlers and a much better offense than Houston, who put up… over 140 on Toronto.
But while the Raptors’ defense is obviously bad, what gets missed is how good their offense is.
The Cavaliers have been inconsistent this season, but their defense isn’t good enough to shut down the number of shot makers Cleveland has.
Jakob Poeltl is out, meaning the lob is going to be there for Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
After a loss, Kenny Atkinson’s Cavs were only 8-10 ATS last season… but the over was 11-7.
The Cavaliers are playing up-tempo this year, and over is 12-6-1 under Darko Rajaković against teams with a pace over 105.
I project this at 240. You’re chasing steam, but there’s still juice to squeeze.
Pick: Over 240
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Knicks vs. Bulls
This one has seen some steam to the under.
The Bulls are the No. 4 defense in the NBA so far, though much of that is because of the soft schedule they’ve faced.
Still, the Bulls have one very clear strategy that’s working for them: they don’t allow three-point attempts.
Chicago has a 29.4 opponent three-point rate, which is not only the lowest in the league, it’s five percentage points lower than No. 2 Houston. They simply focus on winning the math game.
Meanwhile, this is the 15th-ranked offense in Chicago vs. the 24th-ranked offense in New York.
The Knicks don’t take a lot of threes to begin with, and the Bulls don’t allow any.
The Bulls play fast, but the Knicks don’t, as they are bottom-10 in offensive possession length via DunksAndThrees.com.
This will be a little up-and-down, but still a slog between a Knicks team that takes twos and a Bulls team that doesn’t have great shooters.
Pick: Under 233.5
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Jazz vs. Suns
I will continue betting on this.
Sensabaugh is averaging the third-most 3-point attempts on the Jazz.
He’s a 40% shooter, hitting at 33 percent from long range this season, while putting up 5.3 attempts per game.
On league-average efficiency, that’s two makes per game.
He’s above-average. I’ll keep betting this until his rotation minutes diminish.
Pick: Brice Sensabaugh Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
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Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers
Holiday has gone over this in all four games this season.
He’s still able to produce in his minutes, and the Blazers still want to win.
Jamal Murray is listed questionable with calf soreness and was having issues getting to his one-legged jumper in Wednesday’s win over New Orleans.
So, Holiday’s defensive workload could be lighter.
Denver has a bottom-10 ranked halfcourt defense, and Holiday exploits those kinds of defenses, even at his age.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
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