Two chances to survive. Two chances to slam the door shut. Wednesday’s NBA slate brings a pair of Game 5s dripping with playoff tension.
The night opens with the Warriors at Rockets (7:30 p.m. ET, Houston -4.5), where Golden State tries to close out the series and Houston tries to stop tripping over its own youth. Then it’s Timberwolves at Lakers (10:00 p.m. ET, L.A. -6.5), a matchup that feels like LeBron’s last stand — again — and Minnesota’s chance to finally prove they’re more than a vibes team with rim protection.
We’ve got bets, props, and plenty of overreactions locked and loaded from our NBA betting podcast BUCKETS:
NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Wednesday, April 30
🎙️ Matt Moore
Rockets -4 vs Warriors
“I like Rockets minus four because I will just keep slamming my head into the Warriors door over and over again.”
• 🧠 Matt cites a key trend: Teams down 3-1 at home as favorites are 30-10 straight up (75%), and 23-17 ATS (57.5%).
• In first-round only, it's even stronger: 19-5 SU (79%), 14-10 ATS (58%).
• 🔥 “If the Rockets win the game… 14-0 ATS. If they win, they cover.”
Lakers -5.5 vs Timberwolves
“I will be on Lakers minus five and a half to get the cover and extend this to a Game 6.”
• 💬 Believes Wolves may struggle to close the series: “Minnesota has not been great at absolutely slamming the door in some situations.”
• Emphasizes LeBron’s veteran ability to steal one with “a couple more days for Luka [presumably LeBron] to get healthy.”
🎯 Kyle Murray
LeBron James Over 25.5 Points
“I’m projecting LeBron for over 30 points here.”
• 📊 Minutes = money: “I’m projecting him for 41 minutes — could be 44 in a close one.”
• Noted price discrepancy: “25.5 at some books, 26.5 at others — value play.”
• 🧨 “He scored 27 on just 9 shots in Game 4 — I think we get more volume + efficiency.”
Amen Thompson Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds
“I had him projected for 38 minutes. He played 31 due to foul trouble.”
• 👑 “Best case scenario — he posted 17 points and 9 boards last game.”
• Thompson had 26 rebound chances combined across last two games.
• “He’s now in a more offensive role with 28 shot attempts over the last two games.”
💥 Gilles Gallant
LeBron James Over 42.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
“He’s cleared this line in 9 of 13 elimination games with the Lakers — 70% hit rate, averaging 48.1 PRA.”
• 🧠 “He played the entire second half in Game 4… I think he plays 40+ minutes again.”
• Despite only 9 FGA in Game 4, LeBron still dropped 27 points: “He got to the line a ton.”
• “Given the stakes, I’m going to trust the King stays the King.”
Jalen Green Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists
“He’s hit this in 3 of 4 games… despite a brutal Game 4 where he got benched late.”
• 🚨 Coach Udoka has publicly said he wants Jalen Green to contribute more off-ball.
• Green averaged 9.3 rebound chances and 6.3 potential assists in the series.
• Gilles expects better minutes, saying “he’s going to put in a stronger effort — it could be his last game as a Rocket.”
