We have three NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances as the regular season picks back up following the conclusion of in-season tournament play.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, December 19.
NBA Player Props: Thursday, Dec. 19
- Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
- Jonathan Mogbo Over 5.5 Rebounds (-125, BetMGM)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 Rebounds (-130, BetMGM)
Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Points (-120)
Jazz vs. Pistons, 7:00 p.m. ET
Jalen Duren has taken a big step back scoring this season, but this matchup is great, and the line is too low.
The Jazz are one of the worst teams in the league against big men, as they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game to centers (25.41).
This game has a 4.5-point spread, so Duren should get all the minutes he can handle assuming he stays out of foul trouble.
RotoGrinders has Duren projected for 3 points over this number, and my projections are in agreement, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Points
Jonathan Mogbo Over 5.5 Rebounds (-125)
Nets vs. Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
Jakob Poeltl will miss tonight's game, which opens up tons of rebounding opportunities for the other Raptors. Poeltl leads the team by a wide margin in rebounds (11) and rebound chances (19.3) per game. He's top-8 in the league in both categories.
Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in rebounds and rebound chances. Then, there's Mogbo in 4th place. Mogbo is averaging 4.8 rebounds on 8.8 rebound chances, despite only playing 17.5 minutes per game. Poeltl, Barnes, and Barrett are averaging nearly twice as many minutes per game.
Mogbo has earned more playing time in December, and the production has followed. He's averaged 5.9 rebounds on 9.9 rebounds chances in 21.9 minutes per game this month. With Poeltl out, and Bruno Fernando basically removed from the rotation, Mogbo could challenge for 30 minutes tonight.
Brooklyn ranks dead last in rebounding rate. They don't give up a ton of rebounding volume because they play so slow, but they allow opponents to make the most of their opportunities.
Barnes is the other factor here. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable.
Mogbo has gotten a 1.8% rebounding rate bump with both Barnes and Poeltl off the floor. He's also had some strong rebounding games this month with Barnes healthy, so we don't need him to be ruled out. It would be a huge boost if it happens though.
Pick: Jonathan Mogbo Over 5.5 Rebounds
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 Rebounds (-130)
Knicks vs. Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. ET
By Jim Turvey
In case you haven't noticed, Karl-Anthony Towns has turned into an absolute god on the boards this season.
The 4-time All-Star is averaging 13.9 rebounds per game, leading the league in his debut season in The Big Apple.
The run has reached wild heights of late, averaging 16.3 rebounds per game in his last 10 games and tallying 22 boards his last time out. And tonight, he gets a revenge-boost going against his old pals in Minnesota.
Revenge games can be a tricky spot to cap, but I prefer to target stats that are more effort-reliant (like rebounds) in these situations. I'm going to sprinkle up the ladder as well.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 Rebounds
