The Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night for a chance to advance to the playoffs and take on the Thunder as the No. 8 seed. While Dallas came up short in each of the last three meetings in the season series, it's worth noting that Anthony Davis didn't feature in any of those games.
The Mavericks are still a prideful team comprised of veterans, and they showed their character by knocking off the ninth-seeded Kings in the first play-in game. Therefore, Dallas is more than capable of keeping things competitive, especially if Memphis falls into the trap of underestimating its opponent. Here are three props that offer value when building our same-game parlay.
Continue below for my NBA parlay picks for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks on Friday, April 18.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Parlay for Friday, April 18
- Over 221
- P.J. Washington Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds
- Naji Marshall Under 3.5 Assists
Parlay Payout: +625
Over 221 Total Points
Grizzlies vs Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET
This is a fairly low total by these teams' standards, considering both teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of pace. Moreover, no one plays faster than the Grizzlies, who averaged 103.7 possessions per game.
Memphis is particularly vulnerable defensively from the perimeter, ranking 21st in opponent 3-point field goals (14.2 per game). With Klay Thompson putting in one of his best performances against the Kings, sinking 5-of-7 3-pointers, the veteran point guard should relish his chances against this Grizzlies outfit.
These teams had an average total of 232.9 points during the regular season, so an adjustment down to 221 points seems excessive.
During the postseason, I generally adjust my projections anywhere from six to seven points, and my model projects this number should be closer to 224.
Pick: Over 221 (-110)
P.J. Washington Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Mavericks vs Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
Dallas will ned to lean on its best players like Thompson and P.J. Washington Jr. The latter has a points + rebounds (PR) of 22.5—a number he's cleared in six straight games when facing a bottom-10 defense.
Memphis certainly fits that criteria defensively, and like Thompson, Washington is also a threat on the perimeter, shooting 38.1% from beyond the arc.
He featured in two of the Mavericks' four games this season against the Grizzlies, registering a PR of 26 and 27.
Although this line is right at his season PR average of 22.5, given the magnitude of this game, he should have an uptick in minutes, making the over even more attainable.
Pick: P.J. Washington Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-102)
Naji Marshall Under 3.5 Assists
Mavericks vs Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
Some props can be misleading when you dig a bit deeper to explore a player's home-away splits. Mavericks forward Naji Marshall is a perfect example of such a scenario, as he's averaging 3.5 assists at home vs. 2.6 when on the road.
Yet, his assists prop for this matchup is right at 3.5, which would be more palatable if the Mavericks were playing at home.
If we solely focus on Marshall's performance on the road, he has failed to exceed 3.5 assists in 15 of his last 16 games in this spot. Interestingly, since Marshall averages roughly an additional minute of playing time on the road (28.3) vs. at home(27.4), you could argue that his assists on the highway should be more commensurate.
Thus, we're getting a tremendous price with odds at +108 on a prop that
With the under available at +108, we can take advantage of a potential oversight by the bookmakers.
Pick: Naji Marshall Under 3.5 Assists (+108)
Grizzlies vs Mavericks Same Game Parlay
- Over 221
- P.J. Washington Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds
- Naji Marshall Under 3.5 Assists
Parlay Payout: +625
