Let’s face it: the NBA Play-In Tournament is still the new kid at school. Only four years old, with just 24 games under its belt, the sample size is small—but that doesn’t mean there aren’t trends to be mined.
Brandon Anderson, our favorite NBA futures whisperer, has pulled out the chalkboard and laid down five rules to help you bet smarter (or at least argue louder) during Play-In week.
NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Home Sweet Home: The Court Advantage is Real
Think of the Play-In like Thanksgiving dinner: home teams usually eat.
Home teams are 17-7 straight up in all Play-In rounds. That’s a 71% clip.
- Just last year, they went 5-1. Cozy.
In the initial games (7 vs. 8, 9 vs. 10), home teams are an even better 12-4 (75%).
Despite the narrative that Play-In games are coin flips between evenly matched teams, the home court actually tilts the odds. So if you're thinking about fading the 7-seed at home… maybe think again.
The 7-Seed Always Finds a Way… Eventually
Even when it’s ugly, the 7-seed has a habit of surviving the week.
Seven seeds are 6-2 in their opening games, but here's the twist: the wins are tight.
- Average margin of victory is just 1.35 points.
- One went to overtime.
- Only one win was by more than 8 points.
Despite the nail-biters, all eight 7-seeds have made the playoffs. Two had to go through the dreaded elimination game to get there, but they made it.
💡 Translation: The Warriors (West) and Magic (East) are probably safe bets to make the real playoffs—but don’t expect them to cruise.
RIP, 10-Seeds
Pack it up, 10-seed fans. The Play-In doesn’t love you.
10-seeds are 0-8 in making the playoffs.
- They’ve won just 2 of those 8 opening games.
- Average margin of loss: 15 points.
- Seven of the eight losses were by double digits.
So if you're looking to back the Mavs or Heat this year? Brandon's advice: don't. (Or at least find a good number and prepare for pain.)
The Friday Night Finale: Beware the Blowout
Ah yes, the last-chance game for the 8-seed. Historically chaotic, but with some sneaky structure.
Home teams are 5-3 in these final elimination games.
- Sounds fine, until you realize that when it’s an 8 vs. 9 matchup? They’re just 2-3.
But when it’s NOT 8 vs. 9—say the 10-seed pulled an upset or the 7-seed lost their opener?
- Favorites are 3-0, all wins by 7+ points, with an average margin of 14.3.
💡 So if we end up with, say, Mavs vs. Warriors? History says pack your popcorn and expect a blowout.
Game 1 Aftermath: Bet the Hot Hand
You made it through the Play-In. Congrats! Now… can they cash in on the momentum?
Play-In teams are 2-6 straight up in Game 1 of the actual playoffs.
- Sounds grim, but think about the spread. You’re getting good value here.
Brandon’s advice? If you liked a Play-In team before, bet them in Game 1.
- They’re in rhythm.
- The top-2 seeds are coming off rest (read: rust).
- If you believe in momentum—or the Warriors—this is your moment.
Also, if you’re eyeing futures for a Play-In team like Golden State? Bet now, before books adjust their odds once they actually qualify.
TL;DR Cheat Sheet for the Sharp Bettor
- 🏠 Home teams in the Play-In win 71% of the time.
- 🎢 7-seeds are undefeated at making the playoffs, but it’s rarely a smooth ride.
- 💀 10-seeds are toast—0-for-8 with losses by double digits.
- 🔥 Friday night blowouts are likely if it’s not 8 vs. 9.
- 🧨 Bet Play-In survivors in Game 1 while they’re hot and undervalued.
There you have it: Brandon’s five commandments for surviving—and maybe profiting from—the NBA Play-In Tournament. Follow the trends, place your bets (or not), and as always… let’s get buckets.
