The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 4-game slate this Tuesday, and I've locked in a total of four picks spanning two of tonight's contests — including bets for Magic vs. Cavaliers and Pelicans vs. Knicks.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Tuesday, March 24.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, March 24
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Pelicans vs. Knicks Spread & Total Picks
Pelicans +9.5
The New York Knicks are cruising towards the playoffs, but the New Orleans Pelicans have no reason to tank.
The Pelicans have actually been… winning games lately?! Meanwhile, the Knicks remain a rock-solid team with championship hopes.
With a double-digit spread, something’s gotta give!
I lean toward the Under here.
My in-season data adores the Pelicans in this spot because my metrics don’t really believe in the Knicks, but my composite power rating (which adapts Pythagorean power rating, market ratings, and my preseason priors) think this is a Knicks win that stays Under the number.
The biggest factor pushing me to the Pelicans is the recent performance. This is a time of year where you want to get behind the teams that are playing differently than they did the rest of the year.
The Pelicans are 5-2 in their last seven games, and have actually been competitive. They are 8-3 ATS in the month of March.
They are second in spread differential in the past two weeks while New York is 29th.
On top of that, the Pelicans have a rest advantage here, and they are actually third-best in the league this season with a rest advantage at 9-4 ATS. Mike Brown, meanwhile, is 17-23 ATS with a rest advantage as a head coach since 2021.
The Pelicans’ defense has been trending up for months now; New Orleans is top-15 since January 20.
The Knicks have advantages in almost every category, and have been great at home (20-12 ATS as home favorites), while New Orleans is under .500 as a road 'dog.
But this is simply too many points. I’ll reluctantly take New Orleans to hang within the number.
Under 231.5
I project this total near 228.
The Pelicans' defense has been better lately and their offense stalls out on the road. The Under is 16-13 when the Pelicans are road underdogs.
The Knicks’ perimeter attack will be slowed by the Pelicans' defenders, and while New York will smash the glass repeatedly, the Pelicans actually don’t score all that effectively on OREBs, scoring just 1.026 points per possession on OREB play attempts.
The Knicks are 23rd in pace and happy to grind this one out.
Pick: Pelicans +9.5, Under 231.5
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Magic vs. Cavaliers Spread & Total Predictions
Magic +10.5
Orlando is reeling from a terrible loss to the Lakers and losing ground in the division battle to escape the play-in.
The Cavaliers have come back to Earth after the James Harden trade had them sky high.
One team is going to keep crashing, while the other gets wind beneath their wings.
Orlando has been covering spreads lately, even though they are still losing.
The Cavs, meanwhile, simply cannot be trusted with this spread.
The Cavs are 13-19 ATS as home favorites this season, including 3-3 with Harden. Cleveland is 3-9 ATS overall this season when favored by double digits.
The Cavaliers have a real problem with defending the three-point line, giving up the seventh-most three-point attempts per game on the fifth-highest percentage. That could allow the Magic to keep it close if they can find some shooting.
The Magic are 7-4 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season, and the Cavs are a league-worst 3-10 ATS with rest advantage.
This is the perfect buy-low spot on the Magic after losing to the Pacers on Monday.
I love the matchup for Wendell Carter Jr. against the Cavaliers without Jarrett Allen; Orlando will smash them on the offensive glass.
The Jalen Suggs illness is huge: Orlando is 11-13 ATS without Suggs in the lineup. But the counter is Allen's injury; Cleveland is 6-14 ATS without Allen this season; 24-27 with him.
I’ll take the points with the Magic tonight.
Over 230.5
I project this total in the low 230s, so I’ll be on the Over.
The Cavaliers’ offense has been red-hot lately, and Orlando’s defense can really struggle to keep its identity without Suggs.
With the Magic on a back-to-back, they will be less likely to get back in transition, which will fuel Cavaliers' fast break points, making the Magic run back at the Cavs’ lackluster transition defense, a vicious cycle.
The Magic are low on shooters, but the Cavaliers are low on defenders.
The Cavaliers’ baseline halfcourt offensive floor is too high to really stop, but their defense is too suspect to trust.
Pick: Magic +10.5, Over 230.5
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