Oklahoma City's depth is clearly troubling the Spurs and their star center, Victor Wembanyama. OKC is sending multiple fresh bodies in Wembanyama's direction to try to slow him. As a result, the Thunder had eight players who logged at least 20 minutes of action compared to five for San Antonio.
Typically, simply adding more players to the mix can increase the variance in identifying game leaders for categories such as points, 3-point field goals, rebounds and assists. This preview will explore those potential matchups and highlight the players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Props for Thunder vs Spurs Game 4
- Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama (+220)
- 3-Point Leader: Alex Caruso (+640) / Jaylin Williams (+3100)
Thunder vs Spurs Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama
In my previous piece, I highlighted that Wembanyama and OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two most likely scoring leaders, and their performances in Game 3 further cemented that claim. Both players finished with 26 points to share the honors of top scorer.
To no surprise, Gilgeous-Alexander enters Game 4 as a heavy favorite with -143 odds. Wembanyama is the second favorite, but his odds offer a better return at +220.
Despite his implied value of 26.8%, the Frenchman actually finishes with the most points in 39.2% of my model's simulations. As a result, his market odds should probably be closer to around +150.
A glance at the box score reveals that the Spurs outscored the Thunder by four points when Wemby was on the floor. The problem is their point differential plummeted to -19 when he was off the court getting some rest.
In Game 1, Wembanyama played 84.4% of the available minutes, which includes both overtime periods. That percentage dropped to 77.1% in Game 2, then slightly increased to 81.3% in Game 3.
For the Spurs to have a chance, to tie this series back up at home, they're going to have to find a way to keep Wemby on the court as much as possible.
The challenge for the Spurs and head coach Mitch Johnson is to try to get Wemby easier looks closer to the basket so he doesn't have to work as hard. It wasn't until the third quarter that we really saw the Spurs make a concerted effort to run some pick-and-roll action towards the rim.
We then saw a similar play design about a minute later.
Thus, the ability is clearly there. The Spurs just need a bit more aggression from their star man and coaching staff, and Wembanyama can post another big number on the score sheet.
Pick: Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama (+220)
Thunder vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Alex Caruso / Jaylin Williams
The market for a 3-point leader is a bit more wide open with the Thunder having so many quality players on their bench that they can bring on to the court. Two players that immediately jump out in my model are OKC's Alex Caruso and Jaylin Williams.
Caruso has the fourth-shortest odds at +640, yet his win rate (23.2%) in my model is more than twice his implied value of 11%.
He led all players with eight 3-pointers in Game 1 and had back-to-back performances with three 3-pointers in Games 2 and 3.
As a result, Caruso is shooting 60.9% in the series, and that type of playoff confidence and swagger can mean everything to a player who shot only 29.3% during the regular season but is a career 36.5% shooter.
Williams is the other player who caught my eye, as he made the most 3-pointers in Game 3. But before you think that was some fluke, Williams is a career 38.7% shooter.
At 6-foot-9, he's another body OKC can deploy to slow down Wemby, as his 22 minutes were highs for him in this series and this playoff run.
You'd like to think that Thunder coach Mark Daigneault would reward that kind of effort, and if Williams reciprocates, his odds ot +3100 would be quite a juicy payout.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Alex Caruso (+640) / Jaylin Williams (+3100)
