The wait is finally over, as the NBA playoffs get underway with four games set to kick things off on Saturday. The Raptors get us started, as they visit the Cavaliers before a classic Western Conference matchup, with the Nuggets hosting the Timberwolves.
Then, we'll head back East to the Mecca of Basketball as the Knicks welcome in the Hawks before a nightcap in Tinseltown where the Lakers will take on the Rockets.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Saturday, April 18
- Raptors vs Cavaliers Top Scorer – Brandon Ingram (+527)
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets Most Three-Pointers Made – Jamal Murray (+314)
- Hawks vs Knicks Top Scorer – Jalen Brunson (+115)
- Rockets vs Lakers Top Rebounder – Amen Thompson (+325)
Raptors vs Cavaliers Points Leader Prediction
Despite being the underdog in this series, the Toronto Raptors had no problem winning all three of their regular-season meetings against the Cavaliers.
But to be fair, because the season series ended in November, they never faced one another following the Cavs decision to acquire James Harden before the trade deadline.
Harden has fit in nicely in Cleveland, with the team posting a 21-9 mark since the move. His arrival means the Cavaliers have another scoring threat alongside Donovan Mitchell, as the two teammates might cancel each other out for the most points scored in the game.
Mitchell (+104) has the shortest odds on the board, considering he has the highest scoring average (27.9) among the players in the game.
Harden, who has the second-shortest odds (+426), averaged 23.6 points on the year, but that number falls slightly to 20.5 if we exclude his games with the Clippers.
If we turn to the Raptors, Brandon Ingram led his team with 21.5 points per game and even had a 37-point effort in their final meeting of the season.
Action PRO projects Ingram for 21 points today.
Ingram has quickly become a leader on this Raptors team since joining up with them last year. At 28, he's the third-oldest player on a roster that ranks in the top half of the league in terms of youth.
Should the Raptors continue to lean on his experience, he's a decent option to finish as the points leader, with his odds priced at +479.
Pick: Top Scorer: Brandon Ingram +527
Timberwolves vs Nuggets 3-Point Leader Prediction
With Denver's Nikola Jokic at the top of just about every statistical category, it's even more difficult to find any value in the game leader's market.
However, there's one area on the court where the gap of excellence isn't quite as wide for Jokic, and that's behind the 3-point line.
While Jokic is a quality perimeter player, shooting 38% from behind the arc this year, he averaged only 4.5 attempts per game.
Being the 3-point leader requires a combination of success and volume, and we might just strike the right balance with his teammate, Jamal Murray.
Murray leads the Nuggets in attempts with 7.5 per game, while also shooting 43.5% from the perimeter. Action PRO projects him for 2.9 threes today.
In one of their meetings this season against Minnesota, he attempted 18 3-pointers, sinking nine of them for a game-high. In another game, he went 5-of-9 from beyond the arc to lead all players.
The 3-point market offers the best value on our investment as the favorite, Anthony Edwards, has odds of +288.
Murray's odds are slightly higher at +314 despite being a bit better than Edwards, who shot 39.9% from 3-point range.
Pick: Most Three-Pointers Made: Jamal Murray +314
Hawks vs Knicks Points Leader Prediction
New York's Jalen Brunson has a history of coming to life when the lights are the brightest.
A good rule of thumb for identifying a quality player is whether they can still find ways to increase their scoring average in the playoffs.
Brunson has done that in each of his three postseasons with the Knicks, and I expect that trend to continue yet again.
The good thing about being a point guard is that you tend to have the ball in your hands more often than not, meaning there's no need to wait for a teammate to dish you the rock.
Brunson has the highest scoring average (26.0) of any player in this matchup, and that number improved to 29.3 against the Hawks this season.
Action PRO has Brunson scoring 27 points in this game.
We're getting a favorable price with his odds at +110, and it's unlikely that we'll get a similar offering as the series wears on.
Pick: Top Scorer: Jalen Brunson +115
Rockets vs Lakers Rebounds Leader Prediction
While the Lakers can be very pleasing on the eye, one of the biggest criticisms about them is that they're a bit of a soft team.
For example, the Lakers commit the third-fewest fouls (18.5) and rank 27th on the glass with 41.0 rebounds per game.
They'll be up against a Rockets unit that's the league's best rebounding team (48.1).
Houston's Alperen Sengun leads all players in the contest with 8.9 rebounds, making him the favorite at +216. The second-shortest odds belong to Laker center DeAndre Ayton at +313.
However, I'd argue that Rockets guard Amen Thompson (+326) should be the second favorite, given how Houston is more likely to dominate the boards.
In two of their three meetings, Thompson posted game-highs in rebounds with 11 and 12.
The Lakers will be shorthanded with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves still sidelined until May.
As a result, will have to rely on a backup to try and keep Thompson off the glass. For a team that already struggles to contest rebounds, I wouldn't put much faith in their ability to be successful.
Pick: Top Rebounder: Amen Thompson +325
