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Heat vs Kings Prediction, Odds, Picks: NBA Preview for Tuesday, Jan. 20

Heat vs Kings Prediction, Odds, Picks: NBA Preview for Tuesday, Jan. 20 article feature image
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Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Pictured: Pelle Larsson

The Miami Heat (22-21) and Sacramento Kings (12-31) will face off in the NBA on Tuesday night. Tipoff from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California is set for 10:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.

The Heat are 4-point favorites over the Kings on the spread, with the over/under set at 238.5 total points. Miami is a -170 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Sacramento is +140 to pull off the upset.

Let's get into my Heat vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, January 20.


Heat vs Kings Picks, Prediction

  • Heat vs Kings pick: Heat Moneyline (-170)

My Kings vs. Heat best bet is on Miami moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.


Heat vs Kings Odds for NBA Tuesday

Heat Logo
Tuesday, January 20
10:00 p.m. ET
FDSSUN
Kings Logo
Heat Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-4
-110
238.5
-110o / -110u
-170
Kings Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+4
-110
238.5
-110o / -110u
+145
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.
bet365 Logo

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Preview

This NBA system identifies regular-season matchups where efficient but undervalued teams face opponents with poor defensive metrics, such as the Heat entering tonight's game against the Kings.

When a team's underlying performance indicators, such as Pythagorean strength, exceed public perception, the betting market often undervalues them against weak defensive opponents that allow high scoring efficiency — which appears to be the case for the Heat in this spot.

These games typically feature modest moneylines that signal balance, but overlook the defensive mismatch.

Slight movement toward the undervalued side reinforces that bettors are slowly recognizing the edge, yet the market remains mispriced.

Over recent seasons, this pattern has rewarded teams whose true performance levels are masked by variance, while exploiting opponents that consistently fail to contain efficient offenses, creating a steady moneyline opportunity.

Overall, the system stands at 313-220-0 (59%) with a 4% ROI across all-time results. This season, it's off to a 34-20-0 (63%) start, producing a 15% ROI.

So, let's take the Heat to win outright on the moneyline on Tuesday night.

NBA Icon
Evan Abrams – Undervalued vs. Bad Defense (SEASON)
the game is played during the Regular season
the opposing team's average points allowed is between 110 and 1000
the opposing team's defensive efficiency is between 110 and 1000
the team's Pythagorean +/- is between 2% and 100%
the closing moneyline is between -205 and 131
the spread change from open to close is between -100 and -0.5
the game was played during the 2025-26 or 2024-25 or 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 season
$2,009
WON
313-220-0
RECORD
59%
WIN%

Heat vs Kings Best Bet

  • Heat Moneyline (-170)
Playbook

Heat vs Kings Betting Trends

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