The Miami Heat (37-45) will visit the Chicago Bulls (39-43) in the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Bulls are 1.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Bulls -1.5), with the over/under set at 220 total points. Chicago is a -130 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +110 to pull off the upset.
What a fun, tough matchup. The Heat spiraled after the Jimmy Butler trade, and then collected themselves enough to make a run at the Play-In, but only as the 10th seed. Since trading Butler, Miami is 18th in offense but 13th in defense.
The Bulls, meanwhile, are somehow 15th in offense and 10th in defense since the trade deadline. They are also a top-10 defense now? Somehow? Let's get into my Heat vs. Bulls predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Heat vs Bulls Prediction, Picks
My Bulls vs. Heat best bet is on the Over at 220 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Over 220 (-110)
Heat vs Bulls Betting Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 220 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 220 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Heat vs. Bulls spread: Bulls -1.5
- Heat vs. Bulls over/under: 220 total points
- Heat vs. Bulls moneyline: Heat +110, Bulls -130
- Heat vs. Bulls best bet:Over 220 (-110)
Heat vs Bulls NBA Play-In Tournament Preview
The most odd thing is that since the trade deadline, the Heat have been a better shooting team than Chicago. They are 12th in eFG% while Chicago is 14th, but Miami turns the ball over and doesn’t grab any rebounds, while the Bulls get to the free throw line more often. Miami is also 20th in opponent eFG%, while Chicago is 10th.
What this boils down to is the Heat are probably a better offensive team than they’ve shown, but shot poorly. While the Bulls are probably a worse defense, and have gotten shooting luck.
For example, Chicago ranks 25th in expected opponent eFG% and the actual 9th best. The Bulls give up great shots, but their opponents just can't seem to hit them.
All this is to say that I think this is an Over spot. Chicago has the firepower athletically to attack a slower Heat team, and the Heat have the skill players to attack a less precise and experienced Bulls team.
Heat vs Bulls Betting Predictions
In the Play-In Tournament, since its inception in 2021, the 9th seed is 5-2-1 ATS, 6-2 straight up. I make this game Bulls -1.9, putting a little value on Chicago in this spot, but not enough to get me interested. This is a coin-flip game.
However, I project the the total well Over this number, and recent Bulls defensive performances have raised some red flags signaling it all could be smoke and mirrors.
For a same game parlay, we’ll add the Bulls based on my projection and the 9-seed trends, and add Kel’el Ware 10+ Points.
The Bulls are actually 6th in opponent rim rate since the deadline, and Ware is second among all Heat players in points in the paint per 36 minutes.
Heat vs Bulls Best Bet
- Over 220 (-110)
Heat vs Bulls Parlay Picks
- Bulls Moneyline
- Kel'el Ware 10+ Points
- Over 220
Parlay Payout: +400
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Bulls vs. Heat Betting Trends
