The Denver Nuggets (36-21) and Golden State Warriors (29-27) will meet in the NBA on Sunday afternoon. Tipoff from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Nuggets -6.5), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Denver is a -270 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Golden State is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, February 22.
Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction, Picks
- Nuggets vs Warriors pick: Warriors +6.5 (-105), Over 227.5 (-110)
My Warriors vs. Nuggets best bets are on Golden State to cover the spread and the Over at 227.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs Warriors NBA Sunday Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
No Steph Curry. No Jimmy Butler. No Aaron Gordon. No Peyton Watson. Welcome to late February basketball in the NBA Sunday showcase game.
Still, I like the Warriors here.
The reason is a combination of travel, rest, and matchup. But the real best bet is on the Over at 229 total points.
Let’s start with the basketball matchup.
The Nuggets absolutely whalloped the Blazers on Friday night in a get-right game on a back-to-back after losing to the Clippers the night before.
In the matchup against the Blazers, Nikola Jokic looked like himself, Jamal Murray was fantastic, everyone contributed, everyone made shots, and it was a feel-good performance for the Nuggets.
The Warriors will put newly added center Kristaps Porzingis to good use defending Jokic, and if Jokic gets him in foul trouble as he has in several matchups vs. KP, the cap on the Warriors is going to go sideways in a hurry.
Denver’s offense is elite. It’s my opinion that the Nuggets have the best offense in the league, hands down, and one of the best in NBA history, especially when they are fully healthy.
Even without Gordon and Watson though, they have drivers, shooters, rebounders, creators, and Jokic. Jullian Strawther is starting and giving them great minutes.
The Nuggets’ offense is even great against elite defenses.
Denver ranks 1st in the NBA against top-10 defenses per Cleaning The Glass, with a 120 offensive rating against those stout defenses.
The problem is that the Nuggets are also 20th in defensive rating against those teams.
Teams that are typically defense-first get flambeed, but find their way to score as well.
The Warriors’ offense is obviously in trouble without Curry, but Moses Moody has been coming on stronger, Porzingis gives them a post-up and five-out weapon, and they do have enough with Draymond orchestrating to hang, especially at home.
The Nuggets give up the third-most corner threes in the league, and the Warriors are the top ranked three-point rate team in the league.
The Warriors will find open looks against Denver — whether they will knock them down or not is another question.
Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Predictions
Spread: Warriors +6.5
The real cap on this game though, is the spot.
The Nuggets are playing their third game in the last four night, where they are 3-3 ATS this year.
But the big key is that they played a late game vs. Portland on the back-to-back, and now have an early start (12:30 MT) for this one.
The Nuggets are 7-10 since the Bubble when the game starts before 4 p.m. ET.
The trend is much more powerful outside the Nuggets with this short-rest third-in-four though.
Since 2003, when a team is on a third-in-four-nights game, the start time is before 4 p.m. ET, and the previous start was after 6 p.m. ET, the visiting team is 44% ATS via KillerSports.com.
When it’s a second straight road game on the three-in-four, those teams are 15-26 ATS (37%).
When they are favored, they are 3-10 ATS.
It’s a nightmare spot for the Nuggets, and the league should feel bad about booking what would have been Steph vs. Jokic under these conditions.
Total: Over 227.5
Then there’s the Over.
I have been using this one in best bets for two weeks now, and I’ll keep going back to it as long as I project it Over (and I project this game in the 240s, Curry's injury brings it down to somewhere in the 230s).
When Nikola Jokic plays and Aaron Gordon doesn’t this season, the Over is 22-6. That’s 79% this season. The trend holds up the last two seasons as well at 36-14.
The Nuggets very simply give up great looks to the opponent, including high-efficiency catch-and-shoot corner threes, and Draymond Green is actually 38 percent on those corner threes, while Moody is 44%.
Golden State can’t stop the Nuggets’ offense because no one can.
If the Warriors create turnovers (4th in forcing them this season), that leads to easier offense for them.
How about this one on top? The Over is 10-5 in Warriors' games this season when they have rest advantage.
Every signal and sign points towards a Warriors cover, maybe an outright win, and a high-scoring affair despite Golden State's lack of firepower.
Nuggets vs Warriors Best Bets
- Warriors +6.5 (-105)
- Over 227.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Trends
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