The Boston Celtics (42-21) and Cleveland Cavaliers (39-24) will meet in the NBA on Sunday afternoon. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Cavaliers are 1-point favorites over the Celtics on the spread (Cavaliers -1), with the over/under set at 223 total points. Cleveland is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Boston is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 8.
Celtics vs Cavaliers Prediction, Pick
- Celtics vs Cavaliers pick: Celtics +1 (-110)
My Cavaliers vs. Celtics best bet is on Boston to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Celtics vs Cavaliers NBA Sunday Preview
This is a true Eastern Conference powerhouse matchup.
After months of languishing in the East, the Cavaliers are 22-9 since Christmas Day, and climbed right back into the race at the top while adding James Harden, who has given them a boost.
The Celtics have thrived despite missing Jayson Tatum all season, consistently ranking among the top three seeds and looking like a contender — and then they added Tatum back last Friday.
This should be a great game.
Nikola Vucevic is out for Boston after suffering a broken finger (ow). Jarrett Allen is out for the Cavaliers with knee soreness, and Jaylon Tyson is questionable.
These injuries move the line about two points toward Boston for me.
If Tyson plays, I make the spread for this game Boston -1. If Tyson is out, I make it Boston -2, but that is a pure game value rating, not specific to this matchup where he’s an even bigger impact.
The Allen injury matters a great deal here. Allen is essential for this Cavs build to unlock the high-spread pick-and-roll game for Harden and Mitchell.
Evan Mobley can replicate some of this, but is neither the screener nor the finisher in these sets. Mobley is 27th percentile in points per possession as the roll man in pick-and-roll.
This is doubly important vs. Boston, which has the league’s lowest rim rate allowed. The Celtics take away what the Cavaliers are trying to get here with their screen rollers: lobs.
Now, Boston is actually really rough at restricting scoring when those opportunities occur, giving up 1.13 points per possession per Synergy Sports. But, the Celtics take away the frequency and make it tougher.
Without Vucevic, defending the Cavs’ guards gets somewhat easier. Boston can switch a lot more in pick-and-rolls with Neemias Queta, and switching means they can help less, which allows better contests on three-point shots.
The Celtics allow a ton of threes because they send so much help to the rim, so anything that helps their perimeter defense is a plus.
Speaking of, Cleveland has struggled against top-5 opponents in opponent rim rate this season, going 4-7 with a -4 point differential.
The Cavaliers aren’t reliant on getting to the rim (17th in rim rate), but they need the threat to be able to open things up for their guard scoring and three-point volume (8th).
This is where Tyson is pivotal. He’s a crack corner three-point shooter, where Boston’s FG% allowed is much lower than above the break, and his defensive ability on Boston’s wings is going to matter.
Without him, the Cavaliers have to play worse three-point shooters like Keon Ellis and Dennis Schröder, or worse defensive options like Sam Merrill or Craig Porter Jr.
Boston is going to face some tough defensive matchups as well, though.
Dean Wade is an excellent fit defending Tatum — and without Allen, the Cavaliers can play a bit more aggressively in switches or blitzes on ball-handlers.
The Cavaliers’ rim defense stays exactly the same (62.3% FG%) without Allen as with him. There’s no benefit here for Boston without him.
Jaylen Brown is likely to struggle with a huge chunk of his scoring at the rim being limited.
That leaves Tatum, and we just don’t know enough from one game against the tanking Mavericks to have any real insight into where Tatum’s game is at right now.
What we do know is that Boston’s defense is the stronger of the two units, and its offense is better as well.
Celtics vs Cavaliers Betting Predictions
Celtics +1
This profiles as a jump-shooting game.
Cleveland allows a high rate and percentage on both threes and mid-range shots as they attempt to take away the rim, much like Boston, but the Celtics' contests are better.
Boston’s a better rebounding team. Cleveland forces more turnovers, but Boston is the No. 1 team at avoiding them.
Cleveland has a rest advantage here, and Kenny Atkinson is 17-11 ATS as a favorite with rest advantage, but Joe Mazzulla is 23-15-2 ATS on the road with rest disadvantage. So, let’s call that a wash.
Moving away from the basketball side to the market, over 60 percent of the tickets and money are on Cleveland via our Action Network PRO Signals, and yet this line moved a half-point towards Boston, consensus, indicating sharps are not going to let this move further towards Cleveland.
I’m going to back the better team in Boston, given the injuries, though the oddsmakers have this right: it’s a coin flip.
Under 223 (Lean)
I make this total right above the number at 224, so I won’t have a play on it, but I did want to note that this profiles as an Under game.
Boston’s defense is sound and the Cavaliers are missing their vertical threat in Allen.
These teams have three-point vulnerabilities, but so much rim protection to account for it.
The Under is 14-8 (64%) when Cleveland is a home favorite against teams with a win percentage above 60% this season.
Here's the killer: when Boston is on rest disadvantage this season, the Under is 14-3.
Evan Mobley Over 15.5 Points
Despite the fact that the Celtics have this amazing rim defense, Mobley has consistently gone over this line vs. teams of this profile, mostly based on volume.
Mobley does score less vs. teams like Boston that take away the rim, falling to 16.9 points per game from his season average of 17.6.
However, he has gone over this line (15.5) in eight of 12 matchups against teams that are top five in composite rim rate and rim FG% allowed.
He’ll create enough off spot-ups and putback attempts, and the absence of Allen will get him more minutes and usage as a result.
Derrick White Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Cavaliers are going to take away Jaylen Brown and Neemias Queta at the rim.
Even with Tatum back, Derrick White will remain a threat, and if anything, benefit tremendously from the gravity Tatum forces.
The Cavaliers are a bottom-five above-the-break three-point team, and that’s where White feasts.
Celtics vs Cavaliers Best Bets
- Celtics +1 (-110)
- Evan Mobley Over 15.5 Points (-120)
- Derrick White Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-130)
Celtics vs Cavaliers Betting Trends
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