The Champions League is back and Monaco are hosting Red Star Belgrade in match day three. Off to a great start this season, Monaco remain undefeated across all competitions. They are second to PSG in Ligue 1 following a 1-1 draw to Lille over the weekend and have picked up four points in the Champions League so far.
Red Star Belgrade have won the Serbian League for the last seven seasons and are already four points ahead of second place after 11 games. This success has not translated to the Champions League, however. Following a narrow 2-1 loss to Benfica in their first game, the Serbians lost 4-0 to Inter in their second.
Tune in for my Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade prediction with an analysis of both teams and my best bet.
Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade Prediction
| Monaco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -300 | 2.5 -205o / +156u | -300 |
| Red Star Belgrade Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +230 | 2.5 -205o / +156u | +700 |
- Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade moneyline odds: Monaco -300, Red Star Belgrade +700, Draw +400
- Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade over/under: 2.5 goals (over -205, under +156)
- Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade pick: Monaco ML & Over 2.5
I am backing Monaco ML and Over 2.5 in Red Star Belgrade vs. Monaco.
Monaco Preview
Monaco have been solid on all fronts this season, and it has led them to be tied for points with PSG and undefeated in the highly competitive Champions League. Monaco have shown some problems in terms of goalscoring, especially since American striker Folarin Balogun is injured. In their 0-0 draw against Lille, however, Les Monégasques were the most dangerous team, accumulating over 1.2 xG, and if it wasn't for a 60th-minute red card, they would have probably come out victorious against a strong Lille squad.
Following a 2-2 draw against Dinamo Zagreb, Monaco sit at four points and are fairly well-positioned in the new 36-team league. That draw came from a spectacular comeback from down 2-0. The game being played in Zagreb was an important factor in Monaco not winning. The Croatian side's field was so full of water, the players were basically unable to move the ball on the ground or dribble, something Dinamo took advantage of. This game being played at home means Monaco are in full control of the conditions and will look to play their attacking, fast-paced soccer.
Monaco and Red Star did meet two seasons ago, with both games ending in a Monaco win. At home, Monaco beat Red Star 4-1, and I am expecting a similar result in this matchup. They know how valuable points are in this new format and would have wished to win against Zagreb. I am therefore expecting Adi Hütter to try and capitalize on an easier matchup on paper and have his team attack from the get-go, especially considering Monaco will be playing against Arsenal, Benfica and Inter later in their schedule.
Red Star Belgrade Preview
Red Star Belgrade are looking to pick up their first points in this year's Champions League, following two defeats in as many games. The Serbian club walks over its domestic competition but struggles to export its talent to the rest of the continent. Their only defeats this season have come in Europe, so their national success cannot be used as a measure for how good the team is.
Against Inter, Red Star committed far too many mistakes that lead directly to goal scoring opportunities. Monaco's high-press may not be as effective as Inter's, but I believe Red Star's defense will be under a lot of pressure, especially if they try to play out of the back like they have in previous matches.
Their European struggles are not new to this season, as they have lost their last nine away Champions League games (qualifying rounds not included) for an average of 3.44 goals conceded per game. The team has pretty much no chance of qualifying, even through the new playoff format, and Monaco will look to capitalize on a weak defense.
Monaco vs. Red Star Belgrade Prediction
Monaco need to rack up points if they want to be in the top nine, who go directly to the round of 16. They also need to score goals, and they will see Red Star as a great opportunity to do just that. The last time Monaco went undefeated in their first three Champions League games was in 2016/17, when they made it all the way to the semifinals. Something to keep in mind, however, is that Monaco tend to concede on the European stage and currently hold the longest streak of any side without a Champions League clean sheet, now at 22 games.
Red Star could score a goal, but they will likely conceded two or more, making the over 2.5 in this game very attractive. Monaco will press high and try to capitalize on some individual errors and the lack of tracking for some of the Red Star players, as seen in their game against Inter.
