Sean Koerner

Every year, one of my favorite prop angles is betting rookie WRs I’m high on when I think they are ready to breakout. Luther Burden is a rookie I was high on, but opened the season as the Bears #4 WR, playing behind Olamide Zaccheus on an offense that already didn’t throw a ton. So his slow start makes sense. It also seems like the market has been slower than usual adjusting to his increased role. In Week 11, he overtook Olamide Zaccheus, running a season-high 61% routes run rate. Last week, he did it again at 61%. He’s clearly the team’s #3 now and it means more chances for a splash play or two per game.. He was a 1st round talent that fell to the 2nd round and HC Ben Johnson is very particular about his offense, to the point of perfectionism, and he was openly critical of Burden heading into the season in terms of knowing where to be/when. So the recent spike in usage makes me think he’s earned his coaches trust. He’s been comp’d to Amon-Ra St. Brown by some and could eventually fill that role in Ben Johnson’s offense, my personal comp has been more of a DJ Moore/Rashee Rice type hybrid. I think he has a ton of upside and could take 1-2 more seasons to truly breakout (likely if/when they move on from DJ Moore). For this game, my sim puts his median closer to 39.5 yards, with a 59% chance to clear 33.5. But this is one of those spots where he has a wide range of outcomes and has hit the first checkpoint I was waiting for in terms of having a potential breakout.