Sean Koerner

As I wrote up in my Bryson prop, the course will be brutal this week and I think Rahm’s elite approach and around the green play will give him a huge edge here.

“Fever Dream parlay” Sophie Cunningham Under 8.5 Points Sophie is coming off a season-high 24-point game, but if you recall my parlay from that game, I was expecting Clark to rack up a ton of assists (she finished with 14) while Cunningham benefited from some extra scoring opportunities. I’m expecting a bit of a cool down here against an Atlanta defense that ranks 2nd in defensive rating, plays at a slower pace, and forces the most turnovers in the league. Those are all possessions that disappear before a shot can even go up. She’s also shooting 51% from the field this season, well above her career norms, so some regression should be coming there as well. I’m projecting her closer to 7.4 points with around a 57% chance to stay under. Angel Reese Under 12.5 Rebounds Normally pairing a points under with a rebound under from the opposing team creates some anti-correlation concerns, but I think there’s less of that here than people realize. Despite being one of the league’s most dominant rebounders, Reese doesn’t get as many boards on misses at the rim or above-the-break 3s. Cunningham takes 91% of her shots from those two areas, one of the highest rates in the league, so her misses are less likely to end up in Reese’s hands than most players’ misses. Reese does most of her damage on missed free throws, short-range shots, and corner 3s. The Fever provide the 2nd-fewest misses in those areas, making this one of the tougher rebounding matchups she’ll see. The bigger concern for Reese is on the offensive glass. Everyone knows she racks up offensive rebounds around the rim, often off her own misses. Those are absolute killers for a rebound under because she can grab 2-3 rebounds on a single possession and completely change the trajectory of the prop. The good news is Indiana is arguably the best team in the league at preventing offensive rebounds around the rim thanks to Aliyah Boston and Monique Billings doing an excellent job cleaning up those opportunities before Reese can get to them. Under 173.5 A lot of the logic behind the first two plays also points me toward the under. I have this game projected closer to 171. The Fever play at a fast pace and can be turnover prone, which plays directly into Atlanta’s defensive strengths. The Dream force a ton of turnovers, which should reduce overall shot volume, lower rebound opportunities, and potentially force Indiana into a slower style than they’d prefer. Preventing Reese from dominating the offensive glass is also important. Every offensive rebound she doesn’t get is one less second-chance opportunity for Chicago, which naturally suppresses scoring. So while there is some anti-correlation between the three legs on the surface, the underlying matchup data makes me much more comfortable threading the needle here than usual. The sweat guide is pretty simple: When the Fever have the ball, we want turnovers. If they do get a shot up, we’d prefer someone other than Sophie taking it. And if Sophie does shoot, we want the miss ending up with someone other than Reese. When the Dream have the ball, we want missed shots, but more importantly we want Boston, Billings, and company keeping Reese off the offensive glass and ending possessions cleanly. I think the path to all three legs cashing is more likely than the +440 price implies.