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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Under 27.5 (1H)-122
KC
14
17
DAL
0.61u
3rd 8:06
196
J.Love o231.5 Pass Yds-112
GB
31
24
DET
0.5u
FINAL 11/27
Love has been held under 200 yards in each of the last 3 games, but I think this is a good time to buy low. That stretch was a mix of tougher matchups and games where the Packers led comfortably throughout, so he did not need to air it out.
The Packers are expected to trail at a +19% higher rate here, which should lead to a higher dropback rate, and Love is usually aggressive and looking downfield. The Lions use Cover 1 at the 2nd-highest rate, and Love’s Y/A jumps to 8.33 against it.
I am projecting his median closer to 242.5 with around a 59% chance he clears 231.5
346
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 8-9-0 | 47% | -0.81u |
| Last 30 Days | 42-29-0 | 59% | 6.58u |
| All Time | 1976-1590-31 | 55% | 231.35u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1150-908-19 | 55% | 136.85u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point