Pablo Planovsky

Pablo Planovsky

63 Posts
Pablo Planovsky
63 Posts
Role
Prediction Markets Analyst

I write for Action Network's prediction markets vertical, covering politics, culture, and entertainment through the lens of probability and market movement. I specialize in breaking down how prediction market pricing reflects real-world sentiment and where the crowd gets it right (or wrong).

I've been a digital journalist for over 10 years, writing for major outlets like La Nación and El Economista, both in Argentina, covering everything from political analysis to entertainment trends.

I contributed to multiple argentine media outlets covering politics, tech, and entertainment., and taught technology courses at Universidad Nacional de Quilmes.

Experience

I started my journalism career at La Nación in 2013, one of Argentina's largest newspapers, where I've been writing long-form articles on politics, culture, and entertainment for over a decade. I developed a knack for turning complex topics into accessible stories, whether that was analyzing political shifts, covering the film industry, or explaining why Elon Musk might actually buy Twitter months before anyone took it seriously.

In 2023, I joined El Economista, where I focused on technology, entertainment and business coverage, often writing about how market forces and public sentiment diverge.

I've also been teaching media & technology courses at Universidad Nacional de Quilmes since 2020, which has kept me sharp on how storytelling formats evolve and how audiences consume information across platforms. On the side, I've been quietly dominating Oscar prediction markets on Gold Derby for years, this year I ranked 8th globally out of 8,000+ users by correctly predicting 22 out of 24 categories. When Better Collective posted the prediction markets role, I realized I'd been preparing for it my whole career without knowing it.

Education

I graduated from Universidad Nacional de Quilmes in 2013 with a degree in Social Communication, which is basically Argentina's version of a journalism degree with a heavy focus on media theory, cultural analysis, and how information shapes public discourse.

The program taught me how to deconstruct narratives, understand audience psychology, and write for different platforms, all of which directly applies to prediction markets coverage, where the story isn't just "what happened" but "why did the market price it this way?"

More from Pablo Planovsky
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1
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
In 2026, when the odds were very close between Sinners and One Battle After Another across most categories, I went with the latter. I read the stats, studied the nominees, and gauged the social and cultural temperature to bet on Paul Thomas Anderson's film in most of the contested categories. In the end, the bet paid off well. I correctly predicted 22 of the 24 categories.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
In 2016, I bet that Mad Max: Fury Road would win 7 Oscars, including Best Picture. I was so confident: it was sweeping technical categories, the critics loved it, and it felt like the kind of bold, visionary filmmaking the Academy claims to reward. It won 6 Oscars that night. The one it didn't win? Best Picture. The Academy gave it to Spotlight instead, in what was one of the most contested years in recent memory. I was right about everything except the one category that mattered most. That's when I learned that predicting the Oscars is less about being right and more about being right about the right thing.