Nick Giffen

CJ Stroud over 206.5 pass yds (-110 at B365) Stroud hit 250 passing yards last week in a game they were leading for the majority of the plays (42 of 68 offensive plays run wiht a lead) despite some mishaps with fumbles, an interception, a few drops, and a missed throw to a wide open Nico Collins at the end of the first half that could have put him above 300 yards total. That's because he had a great matchup against Pittsburgh, and that's a similar spot he finds himself against New England here, now as an underdog. The Patriots rank 25th in defensive pass DVOA despite allowing the ninth fewest passing yards per game. That's because the Patriots have played, well, almost nobody. Only Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills rank inside the top half of pass offenses faced by DVOA (technically the Ravens are 16th, but they had Tyler Huntley for half the game), and Buffalo is a run-heavy team so Allen doesn't even rank ahead of Stroud in passing yards per game. New England doesn't generate pressure at a high rate, which is where Stroud struggles most, ranking 16th in pressure rate over expectation. They also play man coverage at an above average rate which helps Stroud, even with Collins out. Another reason the Patriots have allowed so few passing yards against is because they control time of possession, especially in the first half, which is a lot easier to do against slow paced teams with bad passing offenses. Patriots opponents have averaged the second-longest seconds per snap in the first half, but Houston plays at a much faster first-half pace, a full two seconds per play faster than the average Patriots opponent. In fact, the Texans have run the most first-half plays per game in the league. I like Stroud to clear 206.5 against a team ranked 25th in pass defense efficiency, especially one that plays to his strengths and eliminates his weaknesses as a QB.

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Blake Corum Longest Rush over 12.5 yards (-120 at BetMGM, fine with over 13.5 -108 at FD or -110 at 365) Last week I talked about fading Corum in this market, especially without RG Kevin Dotson who is a much better run blocker than his backup, Justin Dedich. Now that the Rams are likely to get Dotson back, we should be looking back toward Corum's over. Getting Dotson back is huge for his yards per carry, since Corum gets the plurality of his runs to the right side. Any run to the right of middle now has a better shot to get busted for a big gain, and that's especially true against a putrid Bears run defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA. Corum's median longest rush per game since his role increased twelve games ago is exactly 12.5 yards, but we'd certainly expect this to be a spot he goes over that given the matchup and expected return of Dotson. Tracking at 13.5 since only MGM has 12.5 at the time I'm tracking

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