Matt Moore

Another game where the market has moved against me. We press on. Orlando is playing pretty bad basketball right now, again, and the Wizards are suddenly trying to win. They’ve slowed their pace dramatically, and as a result, they are outside of the bottom five in both offense and defense over the past eight games. That’s not much to write home about but it matters when you’re catching almost two possessions against a team that is in struggle mode like the Magic. Some trends: * The Wizards are 9-7 against below-.500 ATS teams. So they cover, and only cover, against teams who don’t cover themselves. * Meanwhile, Orlando is just 4-9 ATS against teams under .500 ATS. So they don’t cover against the bad ATS teams. * The Magic played, and beat, the Pacers last. Teams are 12-23 ATS (34%) ATS after playing Indiana this season. Something about playing the Pacers affects them. After covering, that number drops to 5-13 (28%). * Orlando is 3-5 ATS without Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner The Wizards haven’t been good ATS at home, but the Magic have been bad on the road too (25th). Washington has improved its halfcourt defense by eight points per 100 possessions over the last five games. It might be a blip, but I also think Washington tanked its early season enough to ensure it retains its top-eight protected pick and now is going to try and win a little bit before All-Star, and then tank again in March to end the season. (My win total over bet on the Wizards laments these decisions.)

McDaniels is shooting 55 percent from three over his last eight games, but this is all about the opponent. Miami allows the 10th-highest corner 3-pointer rate of any team this season. It’s a function of how they defend and a byproduct of how often they use zone. McDaniels, on the other hand, is 45 percent on corner threes this season, compared to 39 percent on all other shots. Miami’s also the highest-pace team in the league. And while they actually force the 28th-ranked defensive possession length (they make you take more time finding a shot), the sheer volume of possessions created by their speed bumps up those numbers. This line is 0.6 above where McDaniels has been in 3PM over the last eight games, but given the specific matchup combo, I’ll play it.

Market SCREAMING at me I’m wrong, but we press on. This is a market analysis more than anything. These two teams played in Miami last week and the line was Heat -2.5. The Wolves killed them, but you aren’t going to see a power rating get adjusted that much off one game. This is Wolves -5.5 now, indicating a 9.5-point line move? The biggest difference being that Jaime Jaquez is out, but there’s no way Jaquez is moving the line this much. Tyler Herro is out, but he’s been out for most of the season. So why on Earth would this line move eight points on homecourt flip when homecourt has mattered less than ever? Miami is the 5th-best road ATS team; Minnesota is 26th at home. I understand the Wolves annihilated them and are playing well right now. But I can’t get here. I make this number Wolves -2.9, given that the Wolves are -2.2 average in ATS differential at home. These teams are a lot closer than this line suggests and I’m unmoved by Jaquez’ value to the spread for a 26 percent 3-point shooter.