Chris Raybon

Better path to #1 seed than KC, BAL. Over wins in 7/8 with McDermott so high floor, unrealized ceiling. Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.

Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.

SB win in 3 of 7 since Mahomes took over, SB appearance in 5 of 7. Tough first half schedule so opportunity to add more in-season.

1st time HC 56-45-4 (55.4%) over win total since 2002. #InLiamWeTrust

Win totals 8 to 8.5 just 7-13 (35%) since NFL went to 17g schedule in '21. LT Armstead retired and MIA rumored to be trading remaining best players (WR Hill, CB Ramsey, TE Smith). Tua 4+ missed games in 3-of-4 seasons since becoming Week 1 starter.

1st-time HC +200 to +399 win division 33.3% of time since 2002 vs 27.6% implied odds (+5.7%). #InLiamWeTrust

Last 9 Super Bowls feat a combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (4), PHI (3), McVay (2), Burrow (1)...and 3 Shanahan offenses. Efficient QB (Purdy 8.9 career YPA), 8 draft picks in top 160, Saleh back at DC, #1 easiest SOS. SF last 6: 2 last place finishes, to NFC Championship Ls, 2 Super Bowl Ls. This sets up as a year where the 49ers let a season ruin their injury plans.

Last 7 Super Bowls have featured some combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (2), PHI (2), Shanahan (2), Burrow (1)...and McVay (2). McVay/Stafford/LAR the only non-KC/non-Brady/non-PHI SB winner since 2016 (9 seasons).

GB went 0-6 vs DET/MIN/PHI and 11-1 vs everyone else. DET/MIN/PHI got worse, GB got better. Love top-5 in QBR (69.3) and NYA (7.50) in a "down" year, defense went from No. 27 to No. 7 in DVOA, and Alexander loss will be overrated (hasn't appeared in more than 7g since 2022, 2 INT over that span).

DET, MIN likely regress from 15/14 win seasons = GB and CHI undervalued, but CHI massively so for Div. Upgraded at HC/PC (Ben Johnson), interior OL (Thuney/Dalman/Jonah Jackson), skill talent (TE Loveland R1, WR Burden Iii R2, washed Allen gone), defensive front (Jarrett, Odenigbo) and have last place schedule in gauntlet division (NYG/NO/CLE at home). Teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied.

Lost OC Kellen Moore + a ton of defensive talent: ED Josh Sweat (36th/119 PFF), ED Bryce Huff (38th/119), DT Milton Williams (13th/118), LB Oren Burks (4th/84), CB Darius Slay (23rd/116), CB Isaiah Rodgers (24th/116), S CJ Gardner-Johnson (14th/98) + LB Nakobe Dean (12th/84) may miss time after major knee injury in Jan. Top-5 hardest SOS w/ away games at KC, BUF, GB, TB, LAC and home vs DET, LAR, DEN, CHI + WAS H/A. Win totals 11.5+ 7-3 to under since 2021, double digit win totals 71-59-6 (55%) to under since 2002.

Brutal home slate PHI/BAL/WAS/CIN + DET/GB/CHI H/A, QB yet to take a reg szn snap, 14-3 record in 2024 was 2.9 wins over what their point diff implied. Teams that overperform by 2+ wins are 30-14-3 (68%) to under in following season.

Lost OC Ben Johnson, pass G coordinator Tanner Engstrand, DC Aaron Glenn, 2 best interior OL (Ragnow, Zeitler). Face top-3 hardest SOS feat 11 playoff teams, 7 outdoor games, road slate of PHI/KC/BAL/WAS/LAR/CIN/GB/CHI/MIN. Since new playoff format in 2020, the 27 teams +185 or longer to miss playoffs have missed 33.3% of time compared to 25.5% implied odds (+7.8%).

SF/LAR better SB bets given pedigree but ARI not far off as a regular season team given similarly soft schedule, less injury-prone roster, offensive talent (+ Harrison improvement upside), drafting of defensive players in R1/2/3/4/5 to address biggest weakness. Still seeing ARI behind SEA in spots which should not be the case (teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied). Would play at +400 or better and expecting this to be a lot shorter after Week 5-6 (ARI starts at NO/CAR/at SF/SEA/TEN/at IND).

as discussed on #FantasyFlex Season Long Props Pod

as discussed on #FantasyFlex Season Long Props Pod

Entered last season as DEN RB1, played all 17g, led them in carries yet rushed for only 513. Most likely settles in as a passing down RB with Blue/Sanders/TBD overtaking him on run downs.

Just 3 of 16 4th round rookie RBs have cleared this since 2021. Missed enough camp time that he likely starts as RB3 with no guarantee of being RB1 or goal-line RB.By the time he ascends, Dart is likely QB1 and is a rushing threat near GL.

876 last season and could lose work to Allen.

Efficiency decline each season, 6 injuries since turning pro and doesn’t bode well KC kept 4 RBs on 53, 2 more on PS.

Likely stuck in 4-way RBBC unless traded and could get least playing time due to pass-game limitations. Proj 500