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Today
Pending
HEDGE vs 28ppg +500 2u future early series. He’s at 28.5 rn so 25+ cashes, u24.5 busts. I don’t trust him to get there in a g7 that trends under with his scoring down again last 2g, so let’s use our strong position to our adv.
Right now we either return -2 or 12 on a coin flippy outcome where I lean toward the bad outcome. Unacceptable risk. 4u on this alt FD line wins ~6u and returns ~10u, though we lose our initial investment so +8u. Or if he hits 25+ points we return that 12 and lose these 4, so +8u. Effectively sacrificing 4u upside to lock in +8u instead of risking a -2u outcome.
If you want to hedge more aggressively, playing the traditional line u26.5 sets you up for a juicy middle where 25-26p cashes both sides. Or if you play an aggressive under like u20, you get more upside on the down but risk losing both sides at 20-25. I don’t personally like either of those but if you have this position, you’ve given yourself options. You could also play lighter or heavier on this hedge, tilting the outcome toward the side you prefer instead of toward middle ground like my setup. Or you can just let it ride. Your choice.
The 30ppg +1100 future is irrelevant. Likely dead, needs 39 points to hit. Always just a long shot bonus, likely an L for 0.5u off our +8u winnings here. Alas, looked great through 4g.
5
HEDGE vs 28ppg +500 2u future early series. He’s at 28.5 rn so 25+ cashes, u24.5 busts. I don’t trust him to get there in a g7 that trends under with his scoring down again last 2g, so let’s use our strong position to our adv.
Right now we either return -2 or 12 on a coin flippy outcome where I lean toward the bad outcome. Unacceptable risk. 4u on this alt FD line wins ~6u and returns ~10u, though we lose our initial investment so +8u. Or if he hits 25+ points we return that 12 and lose these 4, so +8u. Effectively sacrificing 4u upside to lock in +8u instead of risking a -2u outcome.
If you want to hedge more aggressively, playing the traditional line u26.5 sets you up for a juicy middle where 25-26p cashes both sides. Or if you play an aggressive under like u20, you get more upside on the down but risk losing both sides at 20-25. I don’t personally like either of those but if you have this position, you’ve given yourself options. You could also play lighter or heavier on this hedge, tilting the outcome toward the side you prefer instead of toward middle ground like my setup. Or you can just let it ride. Your choice.
The 30ppg +1100 future is irrelevant. Likely dead, needs 39 points to hit. Always just a long shot bonus, likely an L for 0.5u off our +8u winnings here. Alas, looked great through 4g.
14
Harper G1 assists leader+3000
SAS
122
115
OKC
0.5u
FINAL - 2OT 5/19
Fox out, bad # taking a swing with @TurveyBets @JoeDellera
24
KAT 2+ 1Q assists+134
CLE
93
109
NYK
0.75u
FINAL 5/22
will NYK get back to the KAT hub offense early? 2+ ast in 6/8 1Q & 68% playoff quarters with 7+ minutes with 3+ 41% & 4+ 32% 🪣
123
KAT 3+ 1Q assists+430
CLE
93
109
NYK
0.35u
FINAL 5/22
will NYK get back to the KAT hub offense early? 2+ ast in 6/8 1Q & 68% playoff quarters with 7+ minutes with 3+ 41% & 4+ 32% 🪣
87
KAT 4+ 1Q assists+1100
CLE
93
109
NYK
0.15u
FINAL 5/22
will NYK get back to the KAT hub offense early? 2+ ast in 6/8 1Q & 68% playoff quarters with 7+ minutes with 3+ 41% & 4+ 32% 🪣
76
Caruso 3+ 3s/game+245
1.25u
Actually ahead of this through 4g, so 2 3s/g in 6 or 2/ in 7 hits. Should be fresher after last game and get 4-5 att/g. And it goes 7, it’s probably cuz he hit a few along the way. G4 outlier 0/0 is buying value.
41
iHart 8+ RPG+280
1.25u
He’s -2 reb to this right now but 9.3 rpg in 22 mpg last 3g after outlier G1 when he barely played. 9-9 cashes this and they’re so thin now they kinda have to play him
44
Futures
Denver Nuggets+850
2025-26 NBA Championship - To Win
0.25u
One last pre-season bet, the final pick from our Bet-a-Palooza podcast. Calling my title shot! @TurveyBets & I were on OKC last year… this year we’re both looking to invest in Nuggets title futures! 🏆
58
Caleb Wilson+20000
2026 NBA #1 Draft Pick
0.5u
An hour til lottery. Wilson wildly athletic & talented, upside to be best in draft, should crush workouts. Already creeping ahead of DP or Boozer in various mocks. If he makes any push at all toward #1 there’s monster upside, esp w No position hedge prediction markets.
77
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 12-28-0 | 30% | 9.32u |
| Last 30 Days | 67-163-1 | 29% | 94.65u |
| All Time | 3016-4388-119 | 40% | 1044.45u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 1455-2020-72 | 41% | 482.64u |
| NFL | 1315-2020-40 | 39% | 457.36u |
| NCAAB | 185-256-5 | 41% | 80.82u |
| NCAAF | 31-26-1 | 53% | 16.94u |
| Champions | 6-4-1 | 55% | 7.98u |
| WNBA | 5-7-0 | 42% | 5.32u |
| MLS | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.66u |
| ATP | 1-3-0 | 25% | 1.13u |
| La Liga | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.04u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.01u |
| World Cup | 3-9-0 | 25% | -2.70u |
| Premier League | 3-14-0 | 18% | -8.91u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Bet the Texans to go from worst to first in the division, and even doubled down with a Will Anderson DROY cherry on top. Joe Flacco CPOY +25000 and Nuggets over Heat +1600 exact outcome were fun, too!
Most Heartbreaking Bet
MVP bets. Tom Brady +1400 in 2021, odds-on favorite in December, but shutout vs. Saints on SNF. Nikola Jokic +900 in 2023, rightful leader all the way, but the moron voters get bored and go with Embiid last minute. Brock Purdy +5000 in 2024, odds-on favorite on Christmas, but the voters are too proud to vote for him or Dak. You're killin' me, Smalls!