Brandon Anderson

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago ��� yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

We didn’t get to go through all the games on the pod but this was another early Hot Read. I have four strong unders trends, plus Philly game 7-1 to under since bye (not counting wk18 rest) averaging <34. Niners offense has been elite vs bad D but poor vs even avg D. Hoped for 47 cuz key but total is slipping so grabbing now.

There are a bunch of unknowns entering this game, but right now, everything sure seems to be coming up Philly. Trent Williams is questionable for San Francisco, and he's among the most important non-QBs in football. He would be a huge loss here against a ferocious Eagles defensive front. Lane Johnson looks set to go for Philly on the other end. If Williams sits and Johnson plays, that would be a huge swing in Philadelphia's favor — literally worth a couple points to the spread. San Francisco just can't get or stay healthy this season. Brock Purdy took a wicked hit on his final play of the regular season and that could leave him vulnerable to reinjury, and it looks like the 49ers could be shorthanded at receiver with Ricky Pearsall in doubt. The defense remains ravaged by injuries too, especially at linebacker, and this is not the team you want to be short linebackers against. The Eagles are rested and ready to defend their crown, while the wounded 49ers are licking their chops after laying a Week 18 egg and blowing the 1-seed. That's a rough setup for San Francisco. The 49ers were absolutely the better team over 17 games this season, but the Eagles are the far healthier team right now, and they also have a flurry of matchup advantages here. We know how poor Philadelphia's offense has been, but San Francisco's defense somehow rates even worse. The Eagles rank bottom 10 by DVOA offensively; the 49ers are even worse. Ditto on just the rushing attack, where Philadelphia has the second worst run stuff rate in the league, but San Francisco plays more light box than any team and has so many injuries up front. Jalen Hurts remains terrible under pressure. But San Francisco might be the worst pressure team in the league. The 49ers rank 29th in pressure rate and dead last in pressure-to-sack rate. San Francisco had only 20 sacks all season! Nick Bosa finished two off the team lead — and he hasn't played since September! Philadelphia's offense is flawed and will likely be exposed later in the playoffs, but San Francisco's defense looks like the perfect salve this week. And while San Francisco's offense has been red hot for much of the past few months, it's been much better against actual defenses. Since Brock Purdy returned from injury, the 49ers are at 54% Success Rate against defenses ranking 20th or worse but just 36% in three games against any defense even close to league average — Seattle, of course, but also Carolina and Cleveland. Unlike many elite offenses, the 49ers aren't winning with big explosive plays. This is an offense that matriculates the ball down the field with high Success Rate, then wins on the money plays. The 49ers rank first in EPA per play on both third down and in the red zone. That's a worrisome formula against top defenses that can stop those money plays — it's a big difference going 2-for-4 in the red zone instead of 4-for-4, or finishing 4-for-11 on third down instead of 7-for-11. Those are tiny samples over a full season, but in a playoff game, they represent the end of your season. Philadelphia's defense ranks top four in both third down and red zone defense. Vic Fangio has this unit playing elite defense once again, a clear top five unit over the final half of the season. And his defense has a history of shutting down Kyle Shanahan. In four previous meetings, a Shanahan-led offense has scored just 15, 11, 9, and 6 points — barely 10 PPG. Shanahan offenses attack the middle of the field as much as anyone, and Fangio's defense leads the league in EPA there. They also rank 2nd against short passes, where the 49ers also rank second, and they're elite against tight ends. Philadelphia plays a lot of light boxes, daring opponents to beat them with the run. Past 49ers teams would have eaten in that spot, but San Francisco ranks just 30th in EPA per play against light boxes this season, and that's an even bigger problem if Williams is out. Jalen Hurts is unbeaten at home in the playoffs, 4-1 ATS winning by an average of 21 PPG. Brock Purdy is 0-4 both SU and ATS as an underdog in his career, failing to cover by 12 PPG. The matchup and numbers suggest this could turn ugly — but I can't invest in Philadelphia at such an inflated number. I like the under. I bet the under early this week on the Hot Read at 46.5 but still like it anywhere above 44. Philadelphia unders are 7-1 since their bye week at the start of November (not counting Week 18 when they sat starters), compared to 3-6 before that. Eagles games average just 33.8 PPG in those eight games, with all four matchups against playoff teams finishing at 41 or below. Don't forget the winter conditions, either. This looks windy, and windy unders are 61% over the past five seasons. Besides, you should default to the under this round until proven otherwise. Outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above are an incredible 35-9 to the under in the Wild Card Round over the past couple decades, hitting at a smoking 80%. How about a couple silly small sample trends that have been invincible since 2016? Home teams coming off a home loss are a perfect 10-0-1 to the under in the playoffs — that's Philly — while road teams coming off a home loss are 10-0 to the under themselves (San Francisco). I don't trust San Francisco to score in this matchup, and the Eagles never seem to score anymore. Philadelphia games have been an ugly watch down the stretch, with totals since the start of November at 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17. This is an under all the way. Play the best line you can find — we'll go under 45.5 (BetRivers), and let's take the mineshaft too. Five of the last eight Eagles games are at 31 or below, so let's play under 33.5 at +460 (bet365), and we'll try under 27.5 too at +870 (FanDuel), since both of those are slight key numbers for low total games. If this is going to be an ugly watch, we may as well profit.

There are a bunch of unknowns entering this game, but right now, everything sure seems to be coming up Philly. Trent Williams is questionable for San Francisco, and he's among the most important non-QBs in football. He would be a huge loss here against a ferocious Eagles defensive front. Lane Johnson looks set to go for Philly on the other end. If Williams sits and Johnson plays, that would be a huge swing in Philadelphia's favor — literally worth a couple points to the spread. San Francisco just can't get or stay healthy this season. Brock Purdy took a wicked hit on his final play of the regular season and that could leave him vulnerable to reinjury, and it looks like the 49ers could be shorthanded at receiver with Ricky Pearsall in doubt. The defense remains ravaged by injuries too, especially at linebacker, and this is not the team you want to be short linebackers against. The Eagles are rested and ready to defend their crown, while the wounded 49ers are licking their chops after laying a Week 18 egg and blowing the 1-seed. That's a rough setup for San Francisco. The 49ers were absolutely the better team over 17 games this season, but the Eagles are the far healthier team right now, and they also have a flurry of matchup advantages here. We know how poor Philadelphia's offense has been, but San Francisco's defense somehow rates even worse. The Eagles rank bottom 10 by DVOA offensively; the 49ers are even worse. Ditto on just the rushing attack, where Philadelphia has the second worst run stuff rate in the league, but San Francisco plays more light box than any team and has so many injuries up front. Jalen Hurts remains terrible under pressure. But San Francisco might be the worst pressure team in the league. The 49ers rank 29th in pressure rate and dead last in pressure-to-sack rate. San Francisco had only 20 sacks all season! Nick Bosa finished two off the team lead — and he hasn't played since September! Philadelphia's offense is flawed and will likely be exposed later in the playoffs, but San Francisco's defense looks like the perfect salve this week. And while San Francisco's offense has been red hot for much of the past few months, it's been much better against actual defenses. Since Brock Purdy returned from injury, the 49ers are at 54% Success Rate against defenses ranking 20th or worse but just 36% in three games against any defense even close to league average — Seattle, of course, but also Carolina and Cleveland. Unlike many elite offenses, the 49ers aren't winning with big explosive plays. This is an offense that matriculates the ball down the field with high Success Rate, then wins on the money plays. The 49ers rank first in EPA per play on both third down and in the red zone. That's a worrisome formula against top defenses that can stop those money plays — it's a big difference going 2-for-4 in the red zone instead of 4-for-4, or finishing 4-for-11 on third down instead of 7-for-11. Those are tiny samples over a full season, but in a playoff game, they represent the end of your season. Philadelphia's defense ranks top four in both third down and red zone defense. Vic Fangio has this unit playing elite defense once again, a clear top five unit over the final half of the season. And his defense has a history of shutting down Kyle Shanahan. In four previous meetings, a Shanahan-led offense has scored just 15, 11, 9, and 6 points — barely 10 PPG. Shanahan offenses attack the middle of the field as much as anyone, and Fangio's defense leads the league in EPA there. They also rank 2nd against short passes, where the 49ers also rank second, and they're elite against tight ends. Philadelphia plays a lot of light boxes, daring opponents to beat them with the run. Past 49ers teams would have eaten in that spot, but San Francisco ranks just 30th in EPA per play against light boxes this season, and that's an even bigger problem if Williams is out. Jalen Hurts is unbeaten at home in the playoffs, 4-1 ATS winning by an average of 21 PPG. Brock Purdy is 0-4 both SU and ATS as an underdog in his career, failing to cover by 12 PPG. The matchup and numbers suggest this could turn ugly — but I can't invest in Philadelphia at such an inflated number. I like the under. I bet the under early this week on the Hot Read at 46.5 but still like it anywhere above 44. Philadelphia unders are 7-1 since their bye week at the start of November (not counting Week 18 when they sat starters), compared to 3-6 before that. Eagles games average just 33.8 PPG in those eight games, with all four matchups against playoff teams finishing at 41 or below. Don't forget the winter conditions, either. This looks windy, and windy unders are 61% over the past five seasons. Besides, you should default to the under this round until proven otherwise. Outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above are an incredible 35-9 to the under in the Wild Card Round over the past couple decades, hitting at a smoking 80%. How about a couple silly small sample trends that have been invincible since 2016? Home teams coming off a home loss are a perfect 10-0-1 to the under in the playoffs — that's Philly — while road teams coming off a home loss are 10-0 to the under themselves (San Francisco). I don't trust San Francisco to score in this matchup, and the Eagles never seem to score anymore. Philadelphia games have been an ugly watch down the stretch, with totals since the start of November at 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17. This is an under all the way. Play the best line you can find — we'll go under 45.5 (BetRivers), and let's take the mineshaft too. Five of the last eight Eagles games are at 31 or below, so let's play under 33.5 at +460 (bet365), and we'll try under 27.5 too at +870 (FanDuel), since both of those are slight key numbers for low total games. If this is going to be an ugly watch, we may as well profit.

This is another game I make nearly a coin flip. It's clear the Packers offense and Denver defense are each team's better units, so that matches up well, and there are some questions about the other units on each side. Denver's offense is actually trending up, fringe top 10 by DVOA over the last six games, and Bo Nix's advanced metrics are looking much better than they did early this season too. That Broncos offense has struggled early in games though. It's bottom 10 by DVOA in each of the first three quarters before leaping to 7th in the fourth quarter, and the Packers offense leads the league in that fourth-quarter metric. That matches the eye test. Both coaches play conservative football for much of the game before finally taking the training wheels off late and letting the offense do what it needs to do to get over the line. The Packers lead the league in fourth quarter scoring at 9.5 PPG, and the Broncos aren't far behind at 8.3 (6th). Packers games are also a league-best 10-3 to the over (77%). Give me the fourth quarter over 11.5 (FanDuel). Some books offer other fun fourth quarter lines, since we'll be locked in late on this one anyway. I like betting the fourth quarter to be the highest scoring quarter at +225 (DraftKings). It's a fun bet and could mean some fireworks late, and in a game that leans under overall, just the over 11.5 may well hit that anyway. I also like parlaying that fourth quarter over 11.5 with a game under 42.5 as a negatively-correlated SGP at +430 (DraftKings), but don't go crazy since it's really threading the needle on a game script.

We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly. It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA. This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look. Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd. Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late. The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks bottom five while it leaps to top 10 after that. Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal. By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter. I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +125 (bet365). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -130, no need to pay 55 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it. That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).

I love to invest in long-shot name props, and Rasheen Ali is my guy on Sunday night. Derrick Henry might finally be cooked. He's played only 82 snaps in the last three games, just 45%. Ravens fans want more Keaton Mitchell but he's playing only 8-to-12 snaps a game, and Justice Hill was getting 15-to-20 but he's on IR. Enter Marshall sophomore Rasheen Ali, who has the best PFF grade for any RB on this team and has become the third down back for John Harbaugh. Ali has played 29, 27, and 11 snaps the last three games — just five per game less than Henry, and he actually led the team in RB snaps in one of those! His low snap count came in last week's shutout win, so if the Patriots put the Ravens in passing situations, that should be even better for Ali. New England allows the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this season but the third-most receptions to them, driven by game script. New England has allowed 6+ RB receptions in over half its games (8 of 14), including games with eight, nine, nine, and 11 RB catches. Because Ali is mostly unknown, we're getting some juicy numbers, and I'm taking the full Rasheen Ali escalator. Start with 2+ catches at +155 (bet365), a number Ali already hit each of the last two weeks, and then play 3+ receptions at +475 along with 4+ at +1200. Ali also had a 30-yard catch last week, so let's play 30+ yards at +1000 and touch 40+ at +1650 too (all at bet365). If New England gets its early lead, we could see a surprising amount of Rasheen Ali, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him catch four or five passes and make a real difference.

I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven, and Carolina's -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team. I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience. Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number. But what if the Bucs win? Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the division and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances. At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce. Seattle and LA are my top two power-rated teams in the league by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel. I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs do win this weekend and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway. I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup. If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.

This is the game I feel least certain about this weekend. I'd really prefer to fade both teams, which rate around league average on the season, with the Chargers 17th in DVOA through 17 weeks, just behind the Patriots at 15th. I'm not convinced either of these teams is built to make a postseason run. With the Chargers, it's the offensive line. LA ranks 31st in pressure rate allowed and dead last in Pass Block Win Rate, and that has neutered the offense — though the Patriots struggle to get pressure when not blitzing and rank bottom five in sack differential. I'm also a bit suspicious of Jesse Minter's defense, which ranks top three in the amount of zone played, light boxes, and lowest blitz percentage. That's the profile of a defense that's great against bad teams but beatable by elite quaterbacks like Drake Maye. The Chargers are an impressive 4-3 against playoff teams with the league's second-best defense in those games, though the offense is worst of any playoff team — even worse than the Panthers — in them. At least the Chargers have been tested, though. The Patriots played the league's softest schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, a complete cakewalk of a schedule. They went only 1-2 against teams at .500 or better all season. Depending on what you think of the Bills, you could argue this might be the best opponent New England has played all season! Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots have some serious flaws. The run defense cratered down the stretch, 30th in EPA per play over the back half of the schedule. Milton Williams' return will help, but that's much more than one player. New England also ranks 21st in red zone offense and dead last defensively. There are real matchup concerns too. The Chargers rank third in Success Rate on late downs, so if the Patriots can't pressure Justin Herbert, he could pick them apart. LA is also far better running the ball outside, 3rd in EPA per play there versus 31st inside, and New England's defense ranks 27th versus outside runs on the season. New England looks vulnerable over the middle of the field too. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots shred single high defenses, best in the league by EPA per play, but Minter's defense plays among the most two-high looks in the league. New England leads the league in explosive passing and ranks first in EPA per play on deep passes, but so does the Chargers defense — an awesome -0.08 EPA per play on the season. It's wild to have a negative number in that metric when one big downfield play is worth so much! The Chargers defense has more interceptions this season (19) than passing TDs allowed (16). Drake Maye's MVP case this season was built around how much he elevated this squad as a one-man show. If the Chargers defensive shell can limit those big Maye plays, New England is in trouble. The Patriots have played on the front foot against poor competition all season. They lead the league in first-half ATS at 13-4, and the offense has been far better early in games. But the Chargers defense is best in the league by DVOA in the first quarter. If New England is going to struggle, we should know early. It looks like a typical winter night in Foxborough, with temperatures below freezing, maybe some snow. That sets up for a lower scoring game, and that's the script Jim Harbaugh will want from an underdog position. The Chargers played seven games this season against playoff teams. All seven finished at 43 points or below, averaging 35.3 PPG. LA also played its best defense on the road. In bigger games, Harbaugh tends to go very conservative, shortening the game, limiting points, and trusting Herbert to do just enough to get the win. Windy unders are 61% over the last five seasons, and remember, non-division games with a total at 41 or higher are 35-9 to the under (80%) in outdoor Wild Card Round games. I think this game goes one of two ways. Either Minter's defense gets exposed by Maye and the potential MVP picks them apart, and this game goes Patriots and over, or the Chargers hang all the way and this total and 3.5-point spread are too high. I'm going with the latter pairing, which means under and Chargers +3.5 on a correlated play. Wild Card hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 32% ATS, and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 34% ATS. If the game does go low, that only makes the +3.5 even more valuable above the key number. Play under 46.5 and Chargers +3.5 together as a correlated SGP at +242 (DraftKings). If you want a prop with both risk and upside, consider an Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Hampton is hurt and not even certain to play, and if he does play, it remains to be seen whether he'll get his usual snaps. There's a chance he starts but doesn't finish the game, so it would be wise to play this angle at a book that has injury protection if available. New England's defense allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season but the fourth most receptions. The Patriots already have seven games allowing 5+ RB receptions, including eight twice. Hampton played 81% of the snaps in Week 17 and had eight catches, his last time on a field. In seven games playing at least half the snaps, he's recorded at least five receptions in 57% of them, including six, six, and that eight. That injury adds risk to our bet, but it's also adding value to these lines, so I'll take the plunge: 3+ catches at +195, 4+ at +525, and 5+ at +1200, all at bet365, and 6+ receptions at +2500 (DraftKings). If Hampton were healthy, I'd have looked to play as high as 8+ catches. This is a nice play next to our Chargers angle too. If we're wrong on that one and the Patriots do run up the score from out front, that should mean more opportunities for Hampton as a pass catcher in negative game scripts.