NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: A First-Half Bet For Rams-Bucs and Bills-Chiefs Under/Over Angle For Playoffs

49ers vs. Packers

If you've been following The Action Network Podcast with me and Brandon Anderson, you're fully aware that this is the matchup we've been waiting to capitalize on for weeks.

The Green Bay Packers come into this game as the NFC's No. 1 seed after posting a 13-4 regular-season record, earning the NFC's only bye week behind another MVP-caliber season from Aaron Rodgers.

After throwing 48 touchdowns to just five interceptions in 2020 on his way to his third MVP award, Rodgers appears on track for his fourth after a 37-touchdown, four-interception season in which he led the league in Football Outsiders DVOA, ESPN QBR and Quarterback Rating.

With the Packers offense featuring weapons like Davante Adams and Aaron Jones ranking second in DVOA, third in EPA/play and success rate, you'd be hard-pressed to find too many people willing to fade this team.

Despite that, there's not a team in the NFC that is better suited to knock off the Packers than the San Francisco 49ers — who are sixth in total DVOA, which is actually ahead of the Packers, who are ninth as a team. The 49ers won't completely slow down Rodgers and this offense, but they are fifth in ESPN's pass rush win rate and with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner healthy, they should be able to get some pressure and make things difficult.

In addition, this 49ers rushing attack with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel  presents a challenge to a Packers run defense that ranks 30th in EPA/play and success rate. The Packers have struggled with dominant rushing attacks, giving up 219 yards to the Cleveland Browns on 8.8 yards per carry.

In many ways, that game against the Browns was a good comparison for what we could see in this game as the 49ers have a similar rushing attack and ability to beat the Packers through the air via play action. Despite four interceptions from Baker Mayfield, the Browns still had a chance to win down two with the ball at the 50-yard line.

Nonetheless, with the 49ers having a better quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and better weapons, they should have no problems scoring and playing keep-away from Rodgers and this Packers offense.

Interestingly enough, when you dig into the quarterbacks and opposing offenses the Packers have faced down the stretch, it hasn't exactly been a Murderer's Row. They were down at halftime to Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears, they were a two-point conversion away from losing to Tyler Huntley and the Baltimore Ravens and they struggled with Mayfield and the Browns.

One of the biggest issues for the Packers is defending the middle of the field, and they gave up 10 receptions for 136 yards and two touchdowns to Mark Andrews, so we should expect similar success from George Kittle in this matchup.

Overall, this should be a close game with the 49ers having a real chance to win. They've historically performed well against this Packers team, and my model makes this game Packers -3. When these two teams played earlier this season, the 49ers were laying 3.5 at home, so this is a clear over-adjustment.

I'll back the 49ers at +6 and on the ML as they should cover and have a chance to win outright. I'd bet this to +5.

Pick: 49ers +6 and ML

Bengals vs. Titans

My model makes this game 49 so at 47.5 this feels too low in this matchup. The Cincinnati Bengals are 11th in EPA/play on offense and the Tennessee Titans have to receive a major upgrade to their offensive power rankings with the return of Derrick Henry and an extra week for A.J. Brown and Julio Jones to get healthy.

With the return of Henry, the Titans welcome their workhorse back, which allows throws off of play action. With Bengals DT Larry Ogunjobi out for the season, I expect the Titans to have a ton of success on the ground. The Bengals are just 19th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA and 24th against the pass despite facing the 14th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses.

This Bengals team gave up 34 points to the Jets, 41 points to the Browns and 41 points to the Chargers. In last week's game against the Raiders, the Bengals allowed five trips to the red zone and while they allowed just one touchdown, they'll be facing a Titans team that is sixth in the red zone, scoring on 63.9% of drives inside opponents' 20-yard line.

The Bengals will likely be a popular pick in this matchup with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase as they have an offense that has been fifth in EPA/play and third in Success Rate since Week 11. They've scored 32, 41, 22, 23, 41, 34 and 26 against the Raiders, Steelers, Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs and Raiders, respectively, during that span.

Six of those seven game went over the total. This will be one of the toughest pass defenses the Bengals have faced this year, but it's likely we could see them in a negative game script with them struggling to stop the Titans offense, which could have them throwing their way back into this game and, in the process, have this game flying over the total. I'd bet this to 48.

Pick: Over 47.5