The Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) host the Chicago Bears (9-3) in one of the premiere Week 14 NFL games on Sunday, December 7. Kickoff from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis., is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Bears vs Packers will broadcast on FOX.
The Packers are favorites of 6.5 points over the Bears on the spread (Packers -6.5; -115); the game total is 43.5 total points. Green Bay is a -310 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Chicago is +255 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Bears vs Packers picks, which include predictions for the spread, game total and two player props.
Bears vs Packers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bears vs Packers Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
Bears vs Packers odds via bet365
Bears vs Packers Spread Prediction
By Nick Giffen
Our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores make this game more than the key number of seven, and the operative word there is "schedule."
The Bears have played the fifth-easiest opposing defensive schedule, the third-easiest opposing offensive schedule, which, when combined, translates to the second-easiest schedule in the NFL so far.
Chicago is coming off a nine-point win against the Eagles on Black Friday, which sounds impressive, but it is much less so when we consider the Eagles had been the luckiest team in the NFL to that point. The Expected Score of that game was much closer, with Philly the more explosive team and the team with the better passing success rate.
Bears QB Caleb Williams tends to struggle more against zone coverages, and the Packers play the seventh-most zone in the NFL, leaving Williams with around a 3-4% lower expected efficiency than his season-long averages.
On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love's matchup nets out around neutral based off the Bears' defensive tendencies.
This game is also a Luck Rankings game, with the Packers a C-graded side and a 56.4% luck-based cover percentage.
Favored unlucky teams are 58-38-3 (60.4%) against the spread (ATS), including 17-9 (65.4%) ATS if they are favored between 6-11 points (one point below and above the key numbers of 7 and 10, respectively).
I have no problem laying the points with the home team here.
At first glance, this line looks high considering the Bears are the NFC's 1-seed with extra time to prepare for this rivalry game.
Nevertheless, this could be the time to sell high on Chicago, which could drop all the way to the seven-seed with a loss.
Chicago's Black Friday win over the Eagles was impressive, but what else have the Bears proven this season? Their only other two games against teams currently over .500 were ugly road losses in Detroit and Baltimore.
The key to this matchup is explosives.
Chicago has the most explosive offense in the NFL, but Green Bay's defense has been excellent all season at limiting explosives, allowing the second fewest in the league. Chicago throws deep as much as any team in the league, but the Packers also defend the deep ball well.
Meanwhile, the Packers rank top five in explosives themselves offensively, but Chicago's defense has not been good against them. The Bears rank 30th in EPA per play against deep balls, and Jordan Love has been ripping throws downfield and shredding defenses.
While the Bears are trending up, the Packers are still better.
For the season, Green Bay ranks ahead in both offense (4th versus 12th) and defense (7th versus 25th). The defensive gap may be even bigger than it looks: Chicago's defense has been far worse on the road, and Green Bay's has been even better at home (No. 2 on the season).
When two teams at a 70% win rate or better play in December, the favorite is 35-19-3 against the spread (ATS), covering 65% of the time by 4.3 PPG. This late in the season, once everyone agrees who the better team is, don't overthink it.
The Packers have covered -6.5 in all but one of their wins this season. Lay the points.
Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115)
Bears vs Packers Over/Under Pick
By Kenny Ducey
The Bears are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but I'm not going to treat them all that different from the way we spoke of them in the last few weeks.
The Bears are an overall solid team with no discernible weaknesses — but there aren't too many scary weapons either. The ground game would have to be the biggest liability for Green Bay given Chicago's continued dominance there, and the Packers do continue to rank near the bottom part of the league against the run over the last handful of weeks.
Injuries haven't really hampered the defense, but a plethora of absences at receiver, coupled with injuries to Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft, have taken the wind out of the Packers' sails offensively.
Chicago has blitzed the 11th-most in the NFL on average, meanwhile, and Jordan Love has had some issues facing pressure at times this year.
I do think both defenses have an opportunity to go nuts on offense, however, given Chicago's generosity and its ability to run the ball.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
Bears vs Packers Player Props: Jordan Love
By Chris Prince
This is a huge game for both of these teams for the top spot in the NFC North, and while the total sits at a middling 44.5, I believe we'll get some solid offensive performances.
The Packers are certainly a run-first team, but Jordan Love is very capable through the air — look no further than his four-touchdown, 234-yard explosion on Thanksgiving — and he is starting to get some of his weapons back.
Love has gone over this number in half of his games this season, and the Bears have allowed 235.5 passing yards per game.
Weather doesn't look to be a huge factor here. It will definitely be cold, but there doesn't look to be any precipitation or wind concerns.
RotoGrinders has Love projected for 236 passing yards, and I am in line with that projection, making this line a bit too low for me and one I want to attack.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Bears vs Packers Player Props: Caleb Williams
This game has a Caleb Williams interception written all over it.
The Packers haven’t logged many interceptions this season ��� six in 13 games entering Sunday — but this is partly circumstantial. Their defense is still apt at generating pressure and sacking the quarterback. Green Bay ranks ninth in the NFL in pressure rate per dropback while also ranking in the bottom five in blitz rate per dropback.
For Williams, that’s a terrible matchup profile and has been a bit of his kryptonite this year — his turnover-worthy plays mostly come when he’s not blitzed (10-of-13 in that spot).
Another factor is that it is a road game, with four of his five interceptions this season coming away from Chicago.
If the Packers can be tough against the run and force Williams to improvise and maybe play some hero ball, then the probability of an interception increases exponentially.
The Bears may be the toast of the NFL right now, but Williams has struggled over the last three games in the accuracy department, going 52-for-103 on his pass attempts.
Pick: Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+126)
