This is a guest post from PoolGenius, the only site dedicated solely to helping you win more football, golf, and basketball pools. Be sure to check out their NFL Survivor picks and tools.
We’ve got some interesting decisions to make for NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks. While there are a few favorites of more than a touchdown, they come with trade-offs in terms of future value and pick popularity.
Remember, the best Survivor pick each week isn’t one-size-fits-all; it depends on your pool’s size, rules, and format.
In this article, we’ll break down the top 5 NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks, highlight the key factors to consider (including popularity), and explain which types of pools each option fits best, along with advice on how to play them.
Want Specific NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks for Your Pool?
Before diving into the analysis, here’s a quick tip: with the PoolGenius NFL Survivor Picks Tool, you can set up your pool size and rules, and it will generate customized pick recommendations (including for multiple entries) based on win odds, future value, and your unique pool settings.
It’s free to try at the start of the season, and you can also grab exclusive season discounts through Action Network.
| NFL Survivor Picks |
| Free Trial Offer (Survivor, Pick'em, Betting) |
| 2025 Season Discounts via Action Network |
5 NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1
Here are the top Survivor pick options for Week 1, each offering different value depending on your pool’s size and settings.
Note: Pick popularity numbers come from PoolGenius, which aggregates data from major pool hosting sites and runs projections to estimate how picks are likely to be used. These numbers can shift as kickoff approaches, so be sure to check PoolGenius for the most up-to-date figures.
Survivor Pick #1 – Denver Broncos (vs. Titans)
Spread: DEN -9
Future Value Rank: 8th
Projected Pick Popularity: 31%
In a week featuring road teams (Arizona, Cincinnati) and NFC East matchups (Philadelphia, Washington), Denver's status as the clear favorite explains its heavy usage. The Broncos' popularity lowers their expected value for survivor pools, but they remain a solid overall choice with high win odds.
This projects as Denver’s highest win-odds matchup of the year, though Weeks 7 (vs. Giants) and 10 (vs. Raiders) could provide better value if usage shifts elsewhere.
Verdict: The Broncos are a good, conservative option for smaller pools. However, they will be very popular, so don't expect to get much leverage on the field when using them.
Survivor Pick #2 – Arizona Cardinals (at Saints)
Spread: ARI -6.5
Future Value Rank: 16th
Projected Pick Popularity: 15%
Arizona has the lowest future value of the top five options, favored by 6.5 at New Orleans. Some will shy away from the road spot, but the Saints enter 2025 as the 32nd-rated team with the league's lowest over/under win total.
With good win odds and moderate popularity, Arizona offers strong expected value, but this pick will likely be more popular in sharper pools. Speaking from a future value standpoint, this is one of the Cardinals’ best deployment spots, along with Week 5 (vs. Tennessee).
Verdict: A strong overall pick that combines solid win odds with low future value, making it a desirable Week 1 NFL Survivor option.
Survivor Pick #3 – Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Cowboys)
Spread: PHI -8.5
Future Value Rank: 4th
Projected Pick Popularity: 15%
In the Thursday game, Philadelphia is heavily favored at home against Dallas, but it also carries the most future value of any strong favorite (of more than a field goal) this week. With multiple later spots to use the Eagles (Week 8 vs. Giants, Week 15 vs. Raiders), saving them may be optimal in larger pools.
The trade-off is clear: the Eagles are another fine pick to get you to Week 2 in smaller pools where future value doesn't matter as much, but they're probably not more than a sprinkle if you have multiple entries in pools with double-pick weeks or large pools.
Verdict: Strong option for smaller pools, but consider saving them for later in larger or more complex formats.
Survivor Pick #4 – Washington Commanders (vs. Giants)
Spread: WAS -6
Future Value Rank: 12th
Projected Pick Popularity: 14%
Washington enters Week 1 as a 6-point favorite against division rival New York.
The Commanders’ future value sits in the middle of the pack (tied for 12th), with several comparable spots later in the year. If they replicate their 2024 performance, Washington should remain a viable option down the road.
The upset risk against a likely improved Giants squad makes this a shaky play, but the Commanders’ relatively low popularity (14%) gives them sneaky leverage in larger pools.
Verdict: Better options exist, but contrarian players may circle Washington as an early differentiator.
Survivor Pick #5 – Cincinnati Bengals (at Browns)
Spread: CIN -5
Future Value Rank: 13th
Projected Pick Popularity: 9%
Cincinnati checks three public perception negatives:
- Division game
- On the road
- Recent slow starts, including last year's Week 1 loss to New England that wiped out survivor pools.
Those factors suppress popularity, giving them some reasonable expected value.
The Bengals' 2025 schedule is tough, and they don't have many clear survivor spots beyond Week 8 (vs. Jets). If you can stomach picking them in Week 1, they make sense from a win odds/popularity perspective in larger pools.
Verdict: Interesting contrarian pick in larger pools or those with double-pick weeks; strong win odds at lower popularity.
Outside-the-Box Survivor Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Panthers)
Spread: JAX -3.5
Future Value Rank: 24th
Projected Pick Popularity: 3%
The Jaguars have moved up to -3.5 with 64% win odds. Their future value sits outside the top 20, making them the only "burnable" team this week. Jacksonville matches Arizona for best "if advance" survival odds in contest expected value.
That said, the Jaguars carry significantly more risk from a pure win-odds perspective compared to the options above.
Verdict: Riskier option, but an excellent portfolio choice for flexibility and high-value entry if they advance. Especially appealing in buyback or strike leagues.
Get Expert NFL Survivor Picks in 2025
Want all the data you need to make smarter NFL Survivor picks? If you liked the insights above but want to see how everything comes together (and get fresh recommendations every week tailored to your entries), then PoolGenius is the place to start.
Winning NFL Survivor pools is all about stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge? The sheer amount of data and math involved — and most players don’t have the time (or patience) to handle it.
That’s where PoolGenius comes in. We do the heavy lifting: collecting the data, running the analysis, and delivering clear weekly pick recommendations so you can compete like a pro in your 2025 Survivor pools.
Thanks to our partnership with Action Network, you can start with a free trial (no strings attached) and unlock exclusive season-long discounts.
