Hurts hasn’t been using his legs as much this season and, while that could obviously change now that we’re in the playoffs, I still think there’s decent value on his under here. He’s only cleared this once since Week 5, and part of that is because he’s averaging a career-low 1.7 designed rush attempts per game this season. The league has started to make it tougher to run the infamous tush push by calling false starts on it at a higher rate, and the play itself hasn’t been as efficient this year. We’ve also seen them experiment with variations, like pitching it to Barkley instead, which led to a long TD run against the Chargers. As a result, we haven’t seen Hurts rack up as many cheap rush attempts. He’s also facing a 49ers defense that’s struggled to generate pressure ever since Nick Bosa went down in Week 3, as they’ve generated the 2nd lowest pressure rate since then. Lane Johnson is tentatively expected to return as well, so Hurts could operate from one of the cleanest pockets he’s seen all season, which would lower his expected scramble rate. His rush att prop has crept up with the Eagles now favored by 6 points over the 49ers (it was -3.5 earlier in the week), which makes sense because his chances of kneel-downs from a victory formation increase, which is always key to this market. But a leading game script would also lower his dropback volume and potential scrambles, which caps his ceiling here. I’m projecting him closer to 6.7 rush attempts, and having access to a win if he lands on 7 exactly (which I have happening around 15% of the time) is massive here. That’s why I’m projecting around a 63% chance he stays under 7.5.

Better than Drake Maye

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