We're in the stretch run of the college football calendar with just about a month of the regular season left, which means we now have a good amount of data on all 133 FBS teams.
There aren't too many big games this weekend but that doesn't mean there's a shortage of good betting opportunities.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines that I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you get the most CLV possible early in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Central Michigan vs. Ohio Odds
| C. Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
Central Michigan vs. Ohio Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Ohio -12.0 | Ohio -17.5 | Ohio -15.1 |
Central Michigan lost pretty handily last week against Western Michigan and will see some of the same problems be exploited against Ohio on Wednesday.
The Chippewas' weakness defensively is in their secondary. They allowed Western Michigan quarterback Hayden Wolff to go 25-for-36 for 333 yards and three touchdowns. For the season, they're 125th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 127th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Kurtis Rourke is really the only reason why the Bobcats offense is successful because they cannot run the ball. Rourke may not be lighting teams up downfield, but one thing is for sure — he's efficient.
The Bobcats rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate, and Rourke has a 50% positive EPA/Play Percentage, which sits 21st in the country.
Central Michigan is really going to have a tough time moving the ball on one of the best defenses in the MAC.
CMU quarterback Jase Bauer has really struggled, as he averages only 6.4 yards per attempt and has 10 turnover-worthy plays compared to nine big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Of those 146, Bauer ranks 107th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That's a problem going up against an Ohio secondary that allows only 6.3 yards per attempt and sits top-25 in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Central Michigan hasn't really run the ball effectively either. Marion Lukes has put up 349 rushing yards in his last two games, but the Chippewas are still outside the top 50 in both Rushing Success Rate.
More terrible news: they're facing the best rush defense in the country by EPA/Play, and Ohio is also top-10 in both Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards.
Most importantly for CMU, though, is it hasn't taken advantage of its scoring opportunities. The Chippewas rank 117th in Finishing Drives, which is bad when they're already struggling to move the ball.
Even worse for them, Ohio comes in at second in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed.
All three projection models are showing significant value on the Bobcats, so I would grab them now at -8.5 before they close as double-digit favorites.
Pick: Ohio -8.5
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Illinois vs. Iowa Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 30.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Illinois vs. Iowa Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Iowa -4.8 | Iowa -11.1 | Iowa -13.4 |
It's a mathematical fact that in football, you cannot win if you do not score a single point. Rutgers found that out the hard way last week, getting dominated, 22-0, by Iowa in Iowa City on Saturday.
Good luck trying to score on this Iowa defense right now.
Over its last three games against Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers, Iowa has allowed a total of just 19 points and 3.1 yards per play. It controlled that game against Rutgers so well last weekend that the Scarlet Knights ran only 41 offensive plays.
What makes the Iowa defense so good is its secondary. The Hawkeyes are graded as the third-best coverage unit in the country, per PFF, and they're allowing only 4.9 yards per attempt, which ranks second in the nation.
It's also insanely difficult to run effectively and consistently on this Iowa front seven. The Hawkeyes simply won't allow big plays on the ground, ranking first in rushing explosiveness allowed, so opponents have to run it three yards at a time, which I'm not sure Illinois is capable of doing.
Then, if you get the ball into Iowa territory, it's almost impossible to score a touchdown because the Hawkeyes rank fourth in Defensive Finishing Drives. That's right — Iowa's opponents are averaging 2.46 Points per Opportunity.
Not to mention, Tory Taylor has been punting the ball incredibly well, leading the nation with 27 punts downed inside the 20-yard line, which has given Iowa's defense the 12th-best average starting field position in the country this season.
Luke Altmyer missed the last game for Illinois against Indiana, and John Paddock may have just taken his place, throwing for 507 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 overtime win.
However, that was against one of the worst secondaries in the country. Things are going to be much more difficult against the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium.
Yes, Iowa's offense is one of the worst in the country, but let's not act like Illinois has a good defense. The Illini rank outside the top 100 in Success Rate Allowed, and they more importantly rank 88th in EPA/Rush Allowed, which is important against Iowa running back Leshon Williams, who's averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Special teams are likely going to play a big part in this game, especially field goals. Iowa has a fantastic kicker in Drew Stevens, who's 17-for-22 on the season and hasn't missed inside 40 yards.
All three projection models are showing value on the Hawkeyes, so I'd grab them now at -3.5.
Pick: Iowa -3.5
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NC State vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| VA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
NC State vs. Virginia Tech Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| NC State -0.9 | Virginia Tech -0.6 | NC State -2.4 |
There's no hotter team in the ACC right now than NC State, which just ripped off its third straight win after beating Wake Forest, 26-6.
The reason NC State is on this streak is because of its defense, which has allowed only 31 points over its last three games.
What makes this defense so good is its secondary. The Wolfpack sit top-20 in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass Allowed, and they haven't allowed a quarterback to average over 5.5 yards per attempt in their last three games.
Another reason this defense is so good is because it sticks to the fundamentals. Only Michigan has a better PFF tackling grade than NC State, which has translated to it ranking 15th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Pack's front seven has also been getting a tremendous push up front, ranking top-25 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and PFF run defense grade.
The moral of the story is — it's hard to move the ball on the Wolfpack's defense, especially for a below-average offense like Virginia Tech.
Kyron Drones has struggled to throw the ball this season, averaging only 7.1 yards per attempt with six big-time throws. He also has a 39.8% Positive EPA Play percentage on his pass attempts, which ranks 110th among qualified quarterbacks at the FBS level. That will make it difficult to throw against a top-20 secondary.
However, Virginia Tech has a rush-heavy offense that runs it on almost 57% of offensive plays. The problem is, it's not very successful in doing so, ranking 97th in EPA/Rush and sitting outside the top 80 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. So, NC State should dominate this game in the trenches.
NC State quarterback Brennan Armstrong returned to the starting lineup against Wake Forest but attempted only 17 passes because of how effective the Wolfpack rushing attack was.
NC State hasn't been great overall, but it ran for 268 yards and 5.4 yards per carry against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech sits outside the top 90 in both rushing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
The problem for Virginia Tech is if it falls behind early. Drones has proven to be a below-average passer, and if he's forced to throw the ball more than 30 times against NC State's secondary, it's going to be a long night for the Hokies.
The biggest advantage NC State has in this game comes in the category of Finishing Drives. The Wolfpack offense ranks 46th in that area, while Virginia Tech comes in at 124th defensively.
All three projection models are showing value on the Wolfpack, so I would grab the +3.5 as soon as possible.
Pick: NC State +3.5
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