The NFL season rolls into Week 6, with the Eagles taking on the Giants in an NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football and the Broncos and Jets playing in the NFL London game.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 6 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
Week 6 Picks & NFL Previews
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| NFL London Game |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 5 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Eagles vs Giants
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
We saw the limitations of the Giants' offense with a rookie quarterback last week as the team relied heavily upon the run game and turned the ball over twice through the air. Cam Skattebo was once again rendered ineffective with 3.9 yards per carry, and it was some timely scrambling from Jaxson Dart, which proved to be the best offense.
The Giants' run defense remains a liability, though the pressure the pass rush has created has been palpable. That's going to put pressure on an offensive line that has failed to meet expectations and gave up six sacks to the Broncos last week. The run game hasn't been the same for the Eagles because of this line, pass protection has been an issue, and when you put that all together, I think New York should find enough success defensively to bring this game within reach.
Philly's struggled against the run, and after it was torched last week by J.K. Dobbins, I'm inclined to believe in the Giants' run-first offense.
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NFL London Game
Broncos vs Jets
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
I continue to say it week after week, but this Jets offense isn't all that bad. They got the ball moving through the air late against Miami before the officials stepped in to decide the game, and last week Justin Fields had an excellent outing in chorus with a great rushing attack, but another turnover and some turnovers on downs ultimately held them back.
Well, that and their atrocious defense. It certainly doesn't seem like it'll be much easier against the Broncos and their rushing attack, which is ranked eighth in DVOA, but New York has actually handled the run quite well and has just lacked ability in the secondary.
I certainly don't trust Bo Nix to carve up the Jets with the way he's started the season, and I do trust this offense enough with Denver ranking around the middle of the league by the efficiency numbers. This Jets offense is one you want to bet on.
Passes
Cardinals vs Colts
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | -350 |
The Cardinals gave away a win to the Titans last week in infamous fashion, and that's bad news with the Colts on the schedule. Indy may have played the Raiders, but it's remained one of the strongest and most complete offenses in football.
That's really all I can say here, because the Cardinals are currently awaiting to hear their fate with Kyler Murray — who missed practice on Wednesday and comes into this one questionable. Even if healthy, Arizona has now lost two bodies in the backfield and will once again be reliant on the defense to win this game. That doesn't sound too promising, nor does the Murray prognosis, but I'm probably looking to bet this one after we receive word or even live if the road underdogs fall behind early.
Verdict: Pass
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Rams vs Ravens
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
The Ravens' defense got absolutely wrecked by the Texans last week, which was pretty telling considering this Houston offense had lacked gumption through four weeks. The team may just be giving up on these Lamar Jackson-less games, whether or not they would admit it, and on offense Cooper Rush threw three picks while Derrick Henry was held to 2.2 yards per carry.
I still believe this team can kick it into gear without Jackson, but it's dealing with many more impactful injuries — not just at quarterback. The Rams' offense should really dictate this game, but I don't want to overreact to one Rush performance; he rarely turned the ball over last year in Dallas and could easily bounce back here.
Verdict: Pass
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Titans vs Raiders
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
We may be seeing Cam Ward break out of his shell. Maybe. He did throw for 265 yards on 21 completions last week with just one turnover, and while was wildly inefficient it's not like the Cardinals defense he victimized was all that bad.
Ward got nothing from his backfield, however, and while you'd anticipate that could change against a bad Raiders run defense it hasn't really been a matchup-dependent thing for Tennessee. This offense is simply not good, and the defense has been arguably worse — especially against the run.
That leads me to a bunch of questions. Is Ashton Jeanty ready to produce at this level? Are the Raiders really this bad? We'll get some answers, but I don't think we have any right now.
Verdict: Pass
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Bengals vs Packers
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
The injury to Zach Tom has proved to be a significant one with the tackle remaining on the team's report heading into the weekend, but this Packers offense didn't seem too bothered when they took the field against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4, putting up 40 points.
The defense was shockingly ineffective in that game after shutting down plenty of high-powered offenses, and a number of injuries on that side of the ball have proved to be the reason why. We still don't know if Nate Hobbs, Kingsley Enagbare and Devonte Wyatt are going to play, and the latter two aren't looking great which could put a big hole in this defensive line.
I say all that because the books are asking us to lay 14 points with Green Bay coming off a bye, and since Matt LaFleur took over the Packers are just 4-5 against the spread in these spots. Now, I know this Bengals team is laughable, but they did catch Detroit napping last week in what was nearly a backdoor cover. They'll be turning to Joe Flacco here, who didn't do all that well in Cleveland, but with a line this large and the unpredictability of a new QB, who knows?
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Browns vs Steelers
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 38 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 38 -115o / -105u | -270 |
The Browns are a great example of why pass rush isn't everything. They continue to lead the league in that area according to Pro Football Focus on the back of Myles Garrett, and Cleveland's defense has been pretty bad against the pass despite getting to the quarterback.
The run defense is doing its job, however, and against a Steelers team which runs to love and ranks around the bottom five of the league in passing DVOA, I do think that could make a difference.
Dillon Gabriel looked as comfortable as advertised last week despite operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, so why can't he go out there and put on a good show against this vaunted Steelers pass rush? I know you're thinking of a reason right now, because there are plenty, but now that David Njoku is taking on a larger role I think the offense should slowly recover from its bad start.
Verdict: Lean Browns +5.5
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NFL Week 6 Picks
Chargers vs Dolphins
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
I thought coming into Week 4 that this Dolphins offense was better than their record would indicate, and I was also slow to accept Justin Herbert as our new overlord. Well, Miami's offense looked pretty solid despite losing Tyreek Hill, and the Chargers fell flat on their face against the Commanders.
Washington's defense isn't very good, so while we might want to throw cold water on that Dolphins performance, I don't think there are any excuses to be found here. This is a Miami defense that's pretty terrible in its own right, however, against both the run and the pass — and with the Chargers losing Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman, there are plenty of issues on the other side.
I'm high on this Dolphins offense, and while I'd love to take the points, the Over is the smarter move. The Chargers have proven enough on offense, even if they may be slightly overrated this early in the season, and both teams have had their shortcomings on defense.
Verdict: Bet Over 43.5
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Patriots vs Saints
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 46 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 46 -110o / -110u | +160 |
The Patriots offense proved their mettle on Sunday when they took out the Buffalo Bills, but the defense remained a soft spot as they gave up plenty of all-purpose yards to Josh Allen. James Cook did struggle, however, and that's a big deal. Even if Buffalo's ground game isn't the best in the world, it was a big step for this team which will give them momentum for this game which features a lot of the run.
The Giants made Spencer Rattler beat them last week, and he did, but now with Alvin Kamara's outlook murky New England may get some unnecessary help on the defensive side. This is a Saints team which is giving up over three touchdowns per game and a ton of rushing yards, and that will do the job for an upstart Pats team.
Verdict: Bet Patriots -3.5
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Seahawks vs Jaguars
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
It was very cool of the Jaguars to win another game on Monday night — very cool. Great job by all. Well, just job. Job done. Patrick Mahomes threw for 318 yards on 29-of-41 passing and no matter who took the ball on the ground for the Chiefs they had their way.
Jacksonville's defense looked awful against a suspect Chiefs offense at best which is dealing with injuries and turnover at the running back position, and now they have to deal with Sam Darnold and the best passing offense in football.
It's just not looking good for Jacksonville in my eyes, and eventually the luck machine has to run out here. It's had an incredibly easy schedule which concluded with a daring escape from Kansas City in a game it was outplayed. The offense was mediocre, and this run-heavy team won't have fun against the second-best rushing defense by DVOA. I'm just not sure why people love the Jaguars year after year despite little to base their claim on.
I'm taking the Seahawks.
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49ers vs Buccaneers
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
It really irks me how the 49ers currently stand at 4-1 with tons of respect from the oddsmakers here. They've been forced to go back to Mac Jones, who's dealing with a leg injury of his own, and they have a laundry list of impact players out on offense from George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to Ben Bartch and Spencer Buford on the offensive line.
On top of that, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Jordan Watkins aren't practicing, and while Kendrick Bourne was able to suit up with his injury it's hardly good news as he's the only healthy starting pass-catcher on this team.
I just don't know how long this can go on, and now this game is poised to become one-dimensional with San Francisco's weak rushing attack heading up against one of the most complete front sevens in the game. Tampa has been weak in coverage, but are we really scared of Jones torching us?
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers -3
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Cowboys vs Panthers
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
We've got an astronomical total in this one thanks to two of the worst defenses in football meeting in Carolina, but I'm not as sold on the Panthers' offense as I am the Cowboys'.
Dallas has had a far-tougher schedule and through it all has continued to run at one of the most efficient clips in football with the best DVOA in the league and the third-best grade according to Pro Football Focus.
In fact, this game is going to be all about the run with Carolina riding Rico Dowdle to a famous victory over Miami last weekend, but that came against the worst run defense in the league — so it's only downhill from here.
Dak Prescott has been a revelation in his return from injury, and while Kavonte Turpin is dealing with an injury the Cowboys' signallcaller will have a myriad of options to lean on. Dallas's offense should be graded among the best in the game, and I think this line — which has moved a couple of points — needs to move more.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys -3
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Sunday Night Football
Lions vs Chiefs
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -135 |
I don't think there was anything to be upset about following the Chiefs' loss to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football last week. I covered it in another blurb, but they moved the ball brilliantly even against a vaunted — and I say that tongue-in-cheek — Jags secondary. Patrick Mahomes finished 29-of-41 for 318 yards, and on the ground Kareem Hunt remained effective while Isiah Pacheco finally had some degree of success on the ground.
I'd anticipate we see more of a timeshare in the backfield, and that's only going to mean good things for this offense. Hunt has given this team more than Pacheco, and more than that an established run game will mean Mahomes is able to get the ball out to a very talented group of receivers — and Hollywood Brown as well.
I kid, though Brown did catch just four of his eight targets. This is a good team which deserved to improve to 3-2 and while the defense ranks just around the middle of the league I believe there's still a ton of upward mobility on offense. Best of all, the team appears to be fully healthy aside from the assorted depth pieces on defense who are on IR, and we can't say the same for Detroit.
The Lions are down D.J. Reed at corner — a huge blow — and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond each haven't participated in practice this week. Detroit may be one of the best passing offenses by DVOA, but it's now in danger of losing its lead man at receiver and will need to come up big here with Kansas City limiting Jacksonville to just 25 passing attempts and just 5.9 yards per play on offense.
This is the Chiefs' game, in my opinion; they're at home on primetime and in a delectable spot after being robbed of a win on Monday.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs ML (-130)
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Monday Night Football
Bills vs Falcons
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
The Buffalo Bills finally saw what life is like against a good defense last week. I've never been completely sold on this team's rushing offense under Josh Allen, and last week they were held to just 4.1 yards per carry by a near-elite Patriots defensive line.
Now, Buffalo will go into an arguably-tougher matchup with the Falcons. They rank 12th against the run by DVOA but first against the pass, and with Buffalo leading the league in rush-play rate and ranking just 11th in yards per carry despite an overall friendly schedule, I think there's trouble brewing.
Atlanta looked great before the bye with a 34-point performance against Washington, and while the run game was finally slowed it was Michael Penix, Jr. who took advantage of a soft matchup and threw for 313 yards, winning the game by his lonesome.
The Falcons' numbers are so-so on the ground when it comes to the metrics, but this team has still run the ball like crazy and ranks second in attempts per game. Buffalo's allowed the fifth-most runs on average and the third-most yards per carry (5.6) meaning Atlanta should have plenty of chances to move the ball downfield on an overall flat defense up front. I'll gladly take the points.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +4.5
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Bears vs Commanders
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
I have staked my claim on plenty of games, so there's no real reason for me to bet this one. The Commanders looked brilliant in Jayden Daniels' return from injury, leaning heavily on the run, but it came against a terrible Chargers defensive line.
This is a classic wait-and-see spot for me, even with the Bears ranking among the worst against the run. Chicago's coming off the bye for the first time in the Ben Johnson era, and while it didn't look all that efficient on offense in its Week 4 win over Las Vegas, it still managed to win the game and take the ball away four times.
That gives me the slightest bit of pause here, and with the talent on offense for Chicago I certainly don't think it will remain down for long. It does have a modest 14th-place rank in passing DVOA which should rise against this terrible Commanders secondary. Perhaps the Over would be in play here had the number not been close to 50 points. I'd look to bet either Bears or the Over live, but nothing right now.
Verdict: Pass
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