NFL Week 15 opens with NFC South rivals on Thursday Night Football as the Atlanta Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That's where I begin my Week 15 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 15 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 15 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
It's now impossible for the Falcons to make the playoffs, but the Buccaneers' postseason outlook very much hangs in the balance. This is a team that has ultimately shut down the run brilliantly this year, ranking ninth in DVOA, but it's outside of the top 20 in the last five weeks.
There are no injuries up front of note for Tampa Bay as we enter the week, and as a matter of fact it'll be healthier than normal in Week 15 as they return Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan at receiver.
Now, Tampa's defense may be down in the dumps, but it's important to remember that much of that is weighed down by some tough opponents like the Patriots, Bills and Rams. The Falcons certainly like to run as much as those teams, and while they rank just 14th in yards per carry this year they're up to second in rushing DVOA since Week 10.
I have fair questions about this Buccaneers defense after the past few weeks, but I'm encouraged with some even-keeled offensive production, which should only get better with two pass-catchers returning against a weak secondary.
The Falcons offense does look just as potent with Kirk Cousins, surprisingly, and I do think there's enough offense to be found here.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Passes
Commanders vs Giants
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Five wins between them. A career backup quarterback on one side, and a rookie who lost his top tailback and receiver on the other. Good luck finding an edge between two teams that haven't won since early October.
You'd surely pick the Giants offense here, especially with Washington struggling mightily in the secondary, but defensively there are so many injuries.
On top of that, I'm not even that sour on Marcus Mariota, who's looked good in his short stint this year filling in for Jayden Daniels. It's an easy pass for me, but gun to my head, I'm laying points with the Giants.
Raiders vs Eagles
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
Kenny Pickett was good enough in a brief outing last week to earn a spot in the starting lineup against Philly, and when you consider he did go 8-for-11 for 97 yards and a touchdown on a vaunted Denver defense — in a close game, mind you — you almost want to just say he's better than Geno Smith already.
This matchup will certainly tell us a lot. The Eagles haven't been themselves offensively all year, but they're sixth in defensive DVOA in the last five weeks and have improved a good bit against the run to boot.
The Raiders offense is lacking either a line or a running back — perhaps both. I don't care how much I hate the way the Eagles are playing, I just can't take either side here given Philly's defense continues to perform at least above average.
I'm just as scared off the total as well with the Eagles likely content to run all day long, even if it doesn't move the chains a whole bunch, given the defense likely won't budge too much. I want to like Las Vegas, but it's just impossible to stomach.
Verdict: Pass
Colts vs Seahawks
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
I mean, if you're brave then sure — go right ahead. Bet on Riley Leonard, a sixth-round pick who inspired so much confidence last week that the Colts went out and signed 44-year-old Philip Rivers to the practice squad.
It's becoming evident that the Indy offense isn't the same without Daniel Jones, and on defense, it'll likely be down Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward at corner again.
Leonard did complete 62.1% of his passes last week, but managed just five yards per attempt and mixed in an interception for good measure. We just have no idea how he's going to fare against the second-best secondary in the league by DVOA — a step up from Jacksonville last week — and on defense the Colts look toast, struggling particularly against the pass with the 17th-ranked defense by DVOA.
This could turn out to be the mess that oddsmakers are predicting, but I certainly won't be betting against a quarterback I've seen so little of with this much of a cushion.
Verdict: Pass
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Leans
Browns vs Bears
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | -380 |
How good is Shedeur Sanders? That's not a rhetorical question; I just really don't know. He's been able to avoid succumbing to the Browns' atrocious offensive line, being sacked a fair eight times through four games, and he's only thrown three interceptions.
Sanders is still wearing a 52.4% completion percentage on the year, which doesn't seem to be getting any better, and his lone good game came last week against the Titans when he was up against a poor defense.
The Bears don't really play a ton of defense, ranking in the bottom 10 against the run and the pass, and in the last five weeks they're just 17th in overall DVOA on that side of the ball.
The Browns represent a tough test for a Chicago team built around the run; no matter how good it is, Cleveland remains second in stopping the run by the same metric and that's held true in the last five weeks.
It's entirely possible that Cleveland cycles in some players who have been sitting on the sidelines for most of the season with the reserves, as evidenced by a long list of injuries, so I'm going to pump the brakes before jumping in on anything here.
Assuming most of the starters are in on defense, I like the Under.
Verdict: Lean Under 39
Cardinals vs Texans
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
Can the little engine that could cover again? The little engine that could was decimated in a 45-17 loss to the Rams last week. The little engine that could is now 1-4 against the spread in its last five weeks.
I love my little engine that could, I like this secondary and I like the way Jacoby Brissett has played despite a lack of talent around him.
Well, little engine, you're about to meet the meanest defense in football. I pray for you.
Verdict: Lean Texans -9.5
Lions vs Rams
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -270 |
I wrote last week that I wasn't entirely confident that this Lions offense could out-run the Cowboys' offense, and boy was I wrong.
Yes, Dallas has struggled defensively all year, but it had looked like a completely different unit up until last week, when Detroit scored 44 points.
Now, the Rams defense is much better than the Cowboys' — against the run in particular — which could be a deciding factor here. If Jahmyr Gibbs can't dominate like he normally does, there won't be much hope for the offense, and that's exactly what happened when these teams met in Week 2. He finished with just 68 yards on 20 carries, and Detroit lost 31-24.
Maybe I made the mistake of reading too far into a small sample last week when I told you to believe in the Cowboys' run defense, but this is a surefire Rams unit. I don't know if I'd go as far as saying I think they're six points better, but it's very close.
Verdict: Lean Rams -6
Panthers vs Saints
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Listen — I don't know, and I don't care. The Panthers surprised everyone two weeks ago when they took down the Rams as 10-point favorites, and they're now 8-5 against the spread.
That's all well and good, but they lost the only game in which they were favored — against these same Saints.
This time, the Panthers are only favored by three on the road after losing the previous bout as five-point favorites, but surely the line wouldn't be quite as hefty had it not been for last week's win. I do think this team can run the ball, but we saw against L.A. what happens when it meets a good rushing defense as it was held to 4.1 yards per carry.
The Saints are a surprising 13th in DVOA versus the run this year, though, and that's a number which has stood the test of time over the last two months to boot.
When you then consider that the Saints secondary totally stifled Baker Mayfield last week, and looked shockingly competent with Tyler Shough under center against a good defense, I don't know if I'm going wild over the Panthers here.
Verdict: Lean Saints +2.5
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Week 15 Picks
Bills vs Patriots
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
New England has the third-worst run defense since Week 10 and now ranks just 16th for the season. It's been quite a fall from grace for this unit, and injuries to Harold Landry and Robert Spillane at linebacker haven't helped.
Landry is looking unlikely to play once again, and even if the pair were healthy this is a damning number when you're up against one of — if not the best — rushing offense in the league.
The Patriots will be playing to lock up the AFC East here, so the narrative is certainly on their side, but on the opposite end the matchup couldn't be any worse.
Buffalo's been going scorched Earth on some great defenses lately, and it's tough for me to see Drake Maye and the Patriots exceeding the 23 points they hung on Buffalo in a Week 5 win. The defense looks a lot worse than it did back then, and the Bills' offense couldn't be hotter.
Verdict: Bet Bills ML (-120)
Jets vs Jaguars
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
The Jets' shakeup continues this week now that they're fully out of the playoff picture.
With Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields both missing practice this week, they've signed Adrian Martinez after he was released by the 49ers. That means we'll likely see two of the Jets' preseason standouts alone at the quarterback position, given Brady Cook looks to be in line for his first career start.
Honestly, this is about as exciting as a three-win team can get. Cook didn't look all that great on the surface last week, going 14-for-30 for 163 yards and two interceptions, but it wasn't entirely his fault.
I know, this is a quarterback who had turnover issues in college, but he was left out to dry by AD Mitchell all day. Not only did he drop a number of passes, he also failed to prevent an easy interception in the end zone in the final two minutes of the game. Mix in John Metchie III dropping a walk-in touchdown, and I think you've got a quarterback who showed some promise.
Those two are still on the team, so we can't say for sure that won't happen again, but I don't think we have to treat this offense any differently than we have in the past few weeks, which included a nice day against the Falcons. They're actually up to 20th in DVOA over the last five weeks and draw a Jaguars defense that has been good of late, but hasn't faced much competition over a solid four-game run.
I'm just not a big believer in Jacksonville's offense, and I think that's a deciding factor here. New York's special teams dominance has been widely documented as well, so it certainly doesn't seem as if it'll have the benefit of great field position all that often.
Verdict: Bet Jets +13.5
Bengals vs Ravens
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Now that Lamar Jackson is back and morale is theoretically high, let's check in on that Ravens defense. On second thought, maybe not.
Baltimore's shortcomings on that side of the ball haven't been limited to a few isolated incidents, or the time in which it was playing without its former MVP at quarterback, they've just been persistent.
The Ravens' defense is 19th in DVOA in the last five weeks, including a beatdown on Thanksgiving night when it allowed 32 points to these same Bengals, and now they'll have to square up against a Cincy offense that hung 34 on the Bills in a loss last week and will be playing to keep its season alive.
The change Joe Burrow has brought since his return has been very evident, and while he hasn't been able to aid the Bengals' defense, it's not as if the Ravens are running hot right now on offense, ranking 25th since Week 10.
I know this feels like a trap, but I'll walk right into it any day. You can't bet on this Ravens defense, hopefully by now you've learned your lesson.
Verdict: Bet Bengals +2.5
Chargers vs Chiefs
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Kansas City ranks sixth in offensive DVOA since Week 10 and fourth for the season. We know the story by now, this is a team which has simply failed to execute late and has seen countless one-score games slip through its fingers.
The good news is that nothing is catastrophically wrong with this team, perhaps other than Travis Kelce forgetting he's a future Hall of Famer, they just need to stack wins in a hurry.
Now, if the Chiefs lose this game, they're effectively eliminated from the playoffs, and if they win they'll have an 18% chance of making it. The Chargers' outlook looks a lot more comfortable, and they're playing with a quarterback who has a broken left hand.
A somewhat down Eagles defense turned Justin Herbert over twice last week as he went just 12-for-26 for 139 yards, and judging by his 10.4 intended air yards per attempt — which was nearly a season high — it's evident L.A.'s gameplan is going to call for some lobs downfield by Herbert and plenty of rushing, as we saw last week when the Chargers ran 38 times.
The Chiefs have done a decent job against the deep ball this season, giving up a 37.5% completion percentage on passes 20 or more yards downfield, and they rank eighth against the run in the last five weeks.
Believe in K.C.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -5.5
Packers vs Broncos
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
The Packers are in a fight to win the NFC North, and more than that they are in a fight to make the playoffs with three teams standing at 9-4 or better in the wild-card position. Denver's simply looking to lock up a spot with either a win here or a couple of losses. Neither have lost over the last four weeks, but as we all know the Broncos' winning streak started all the way back in late September.
Denver's still managed to make things work with J.K. Dobbins on IR along with a few members of the offensive line, but they are barely working. The Broncos are just 21st in offensive DVOA over the last five weeks, doing a particularly poor job on the ground. It's been both the secondary and a soft schedule keeping this team afloat, but now I think it's time for Denver to lose.
The Packers are scoring the ball right now, putting up 28 on the Bears last week and 31 on the Lions the week prior. Best of all, they're running the ball at the fourth-highest clip in the league and rank 10th on that side of the ball since Week 10, but that could change if Josh Jacobs is held out of this game. He's the only one on the injury report who hasn't practiced yet, and he didn't exactly sound confident he'll play on Sunday.
Still, I do think this is a Broncos team which has been cruising for a bruising, and even without Jacobs the Packers' offense is strong enough to overcome it against a defense which has really weakened up front.
Verdict: Bet Packers -2.5
Titans vs 49ers
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Cam Ward's rookie season may be looking like a dud, but there's some life to be found yet. Over the last four weeks, he's had to run through a gauntlet of defenses — completing 62.1% of his passes for four touchdowns and one interception against the Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars and Browns. He's averaged 6.8 yards per carry on top of that, and he's only been sacked three times in the last two weeks — a significant number considering he faced the Cleveland last week.
I'm not entirely sure what that means for this matchup in particular, and we should note that Ward is only averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. Still, even if he's dinking and dunking with some scrambles mixed in, he's improving, and now he draws a poor 49ers defense that has been down most of its biggest names for weeks.
San Francisco has had an easy schedule, and there haven't been many moments of brilliance for the offense. Tennessee's defense, meanwhile, has been doing a pretty admirable job in the face of good competition, and I see no reason the Titans should be getting this many points.
Verdict: Bet Titans +12.5
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Sunday Night Football
Vikings vs Cowboys
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Dallas' defense remains a massive liability, but its offense continues to rank near the top of the league thanks to its dangerous passing attack. In the last five weeks there still hasn't been much hope to be found in the ground game, so this is really going to come down to whether or not the Cowboys can continue racking up points on Minnesota's defense.
That could be an issue with starting tackle Tyler Guyton and tight end Jake Ferguson both missing practice, and even if CeeDee Lamb is good to go those are still two huge losses on the line.
The Vikings are a respectable 14th in pressure rate and eighth in QB hits, but while those are some ordinarily scary numbers, it's important to remember that Dak Prescott has had the third-lowest clean pocket rate in football.
If the Vikings break through the line to get to Prescott, it's unlikely to faze him much, but the Vikings' secondary could certainly bother him given it ranks fourth against the pass since Week 10 and 12th overall.
That just gives me the slightest bit of pause here; if the Cowboys are held to just a few scores, the Vikings can easily cover against a porous defense that is banged up on top of it all.
Verdict: Lean Vikings +5.5
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Monday Night Football
Dolphins vs Steelers
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
I really don't even want to write this blurb, because by the end of it I'm going to want to bet on the Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa has had a fair 68.9 passer rating under pressure this year — far from the worst but far from the best. The sample is also somewhat large given the Dolphins' line ranks 15th in clean pocket rate.
The passing offense simply hasn't been what's driven the ship this year, however, it's this rushing offense. The Steelers rank 23rd in tackling grade, according to Pro Football Focus, and just 15th in run defense, and for the season they're just 17th by DVOA.
Nothing has changed in recent weeks, too, so with all that we've said above you'd have to expect a somewhat decent showing from Miami's offense — especially with De'Von Achane still able to suit up as a limited participant in practice this week. On top of that, it doesn't seem likely T.J. Watt — recently hospitalized for a lung issue — will play.
That should leave things up to Aaron Rodgers to win this game, and I don't really know if he can do it. He looked great last week against the Ravens, but Baltimore's defense has been terrible all year.
Miami actually ranks eighth in DVOA versus the pass since Week 10 and seventh against the run for the year, so with the defense fully forming I can't really put my faith behind Pittsburgh.
The Steelers just gave up 217 yards on 40 carries last week and enter Monday Night Football against another formidable backfield with their offensive outlook uncertain — particularly given the injury to Rodgers' non-throwing hand, which was very recent.
I don't really think the Dolphins are going to win — or cover — but the numbers suggest they're the right side.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins +3
Click here to return to the table of contents.
