NFL Week 12 has arrived, and I have three NFL player props to target for the 12th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 12 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 12 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 12
- RB Kareem Hunt Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-120; DraftKings)
- TE Cole Kmet Over 2.5 Receptions (-106; FanDuel)
- S Nick Cross Over 7.5 Tackles (+100; BetMGM)
- S Tre'von Moehrig Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-135; BetMGM)
- LB Kyzir White Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-120; BetMGM)
Chiefs vs Panthers Player Props: Kareem Hunt Rush Attempts
Isiah Pacheco returned to practice this week, but he won’t return to action for Week 12. It seems likely he will suit up next week though.
That means we should see Hunt get another massive workload on Sunday as there is really no reason to limit his touches in any way with Pacheco looming.
Hunt has failed to clear this number in back-to-back weeks (14 rush attempts in each game). The Chiefs have actually run more plays while trailing (39%) than leading (37%) since Hunt took over as lead back in Week 4, yet he’s cleared this number in 4-of-7 games.
This is a matchup against the Panthers where I’m projecting the Chiefs to play with the lead on 58% of their snaps, which would provide Hunt massive rush attempt upside. The Panthers have also allowed the most rush attempts per game this season.
I’m projecting Hunt closer to 20.5 carries with around a 63% chance to clear 18.5.
Vikings vs Bears Player Props: Cole Kmet Receptions
Thomas Brown took over for Shane Waldron last week as the Bears' offensive coordinator. That resulted in Cole Kmet seeing his highest routes run rate of the season (87%).
Backup TE Gerald Everett followed Waldron to the Bears from Seattle and to no surprise, ran a season-low 3% routes run last week.
While Kmet’s target rate has been a paltry 6% since the Bears' Week 7 bye, I expect that to only go up going forward.
This is a matchup against a zone-heavy Vikings defense that has allowed the seventh-most completions per game.
I’m projecting Kmet closer to 3.2 receptions with around a 60% chance to clear 2.5.
Lions vs Colts Player Props: Nick Cross Tackles
Cross has cleared this in 8-of-11 games despite having a fairly tough schedule in terms of tackle opportunities. He's coming off a four-tackle game against a Jets team that is one of the worst in terms of providing tackle chances for safeties in particular.
The Lions are the third-best team in terms of providing tackle oppurtinies for safeties so this sets up as an ideal bounce-back, smash spot for Cross.
The Colts' corekeeper is one of the most generous in terms of dishing out assists, so Cross gets a slight boost playing at home.
I'm projecting Cross closer to 8.7 tackles with around a 62% chance to clear 7.5.
Broncos vs Raiders Player Props: Tre'von Moehrig Tackles + Assists
Moehrig's been racking up tackles since Week 5, and that’s because he’s been facing teams that allow an above league average rate in tackle opportunities for opposing safeties.
The Broncos have provided the second-most tackle opportunities a game to safeties. Moehrig totaled eight tackles in their Week 5 meeting.
This is a great spot for him to keep rolling and I’m projecting him closer to 7.8 tackles with around a 65% chance of clearing 6.5.
Cardinals vs Seahawks Player Props: Kyzir White Tackles + Assists
White has averaged 7.1 tackles a game despite having a fairly easy schedule for linebackers. He now faces a Seahawks team that has provided the fewest tackle opportunities to opposing LBs.
I think this is a full tackle too high and project it closer to 6.5 with around a 67% chance he stays under 7.5.
